Stiles: Survey Takes On More Significance With Tight Grain Stocks
LITTLE ROCK, ARK.
A routine survey being conducted by the National Agricultural Statistics Service may carry additional significance because of the nation’s tight grain stocks, said Scott Stiles, extension economist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture.
The NASS, part of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, will be sending questionnaires to more than 1,400 Arkansas farmers to get a big picture of this year’s production of small grains, including wheat and oats.
The survey is being conducted “to accurately measure 2021 acreage, yield and production for small grain crops,” said Eugene Young, director of the Delta regional office for NASS. The data will be available on Quick Stats in the NASS site in December. Arkansas growers will also be asked about corn, soybeans and all wheat and oats stored on the farm.
The deadline to respond by mail or online is Aug. 29, and growers may submit their information online at https://agcou nts.usda.gov. NASS said all the responses are confidential and all the data is aggregated so no individual operation or producer can be identified.
Tightest supplies since 2012
While the survey is routine for NASS, with the data setting its year- end estimates on wheat and oats and other grains as well as the Sept. 1 stocks of grain on hand, it may loom larger because of the shape of current grain markets.
"Adding importance to this survey is the fundamental character of the grain markets today,” said Scott Stiles, extension economist with the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture. “U.S. corn ending stocks are the tightest since 2012. Wheat and soybean stocks are the tightest since 2013. Oats ending stocks are at all-time lows.
“In other words, every bushel counts,” he said.
In addition to acreage reports and monthly crop production forecasts, USDA issues grain stocks reports in January, March, June and September.
“These reports complete the supply picture by showing stocks on hand from previous crops,” Stiles said. “In the case of corn and other feed grains, changes in stocks from one quarter to the next provide an indication of how much grain is being fed domestically.
“For corn, feed use is the single largest part of total demand,” he said. “For wheat, the USDA projects 160 million bushels will be used for feed in the 2021-22 marketing year.”
Stiles said the agriculture industry relies on these reports, which provide one piece of market information critical to price discovery.
“This information is only as good as what’s provided by growers and other industry members,” he said. In a time of tight supplies and added market volatility, accurate information is essential to help all market participants manage price risk—whether that’s producers or end users.” ∆
The National Agricultural Statistics Service will be sending surveys to some 1,400 Arkansas farmers to get a big picture on the amount of small grains such as wheat,
there is being held on-farm. With historically tight stocks, the 2021 survey takes on a new importance.
2014 file photo by Robert Goodson