Rice Market Update: Gulf Coast Farmers Planting New Crop
KATY, TEXAS
The rice market has remained rather quiet over the past week, although from a global standpoint there seems to be a bullish trend emerging, particularly for old crop demand. Export sales for the week were predictably lower than the previous weeks’ volumes. As was indicated in the prior report, the dearth of old crop inventories will likely keep this number consistently low until new crop harvest. Vessel loadings was higher in the current report. This was also anticipated as old sales continue to move into the export market. Future reports should note strong volumes until either old sales have been shipped or coronavirus concerns begin to constrict shipping.
Asian pricing saw stronger than average increases in prices over the week. The benchmark origins noted higher prices against a weaker exchange rate. This is a result primarily from weather problems in Southeast Asia (particularly a drought in Thailand). Underlying softness in the price matrix is minimal in the short run although the impacts of the coronavirus outbreak are still undetermined.
USDA held its world market price outlook unchanged over the past week. Next week’s installment will likely reflect some price increases due to stronger market fundamentals.
Domestically, there are very few changes in the market. Old crop purchasing has been very slow due to thin supply and will only become tighter as the year progresses. New crop plantings have gotten underway along the Gulf Coast. While still early in the process, more acres will be put in the ground over the next week. Preliminary indications support the speculation that there will be significantly more rice acres in 2020 than were planted in 2019.
The futures market has seen a lot of trading action this week as the commodities have all been responding to the financial market turmoil. Rice saw old crop contracts contract the most with losses ranging between 2.79 percent and 3.55 percent. New crop contracts were less impacted with posted losses ranging from 0.29 percent to 0.42 percent. Interestingly, the spread between the May and July contract has collapsed to zero, which is very strange. Also, the volume in the deferred contracts has been higher over the past week or two than has traditionally been seen. There is some indication that buyers are resorting to taking delivery off the board for some rice which underscores the volatility and tightness in the current market environment. ∆