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U.S. Rice Projections Up, But Globally Numbers Drop
Global rice production in 2018/19 is projected at 487.6 million tons (milled basis), down 0.2 million tons from the previous forecast and almost 1.0 million tons below the year-earlier record. Production is projected smaller in 2018/19 in China, Colombia, Egypt, India, Iraq, Pakistan, South Korea, and Venezuela. These 2018/19 production declines are projected to be partially offset by larger crops in Bangladesh, Burma, Cambodia, Guyana, Indonesia, Madagascar, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Thailand, and the United States. Vietnam’s 2018/19 crop is projected to be fractionally larger than in 2017/18.
There were three downward production revisions this month for 2018/19. First, the U.S. 2018/19 rice production forecast was lowered 81,000 tons to 6.7 million tons due to a lower yield forecast reported by NASS. This is the first survey-based yield forecast for the 2018/19 U.S. rice crop. U.S. production is projected up 18 percent from a year earlier, a result of expanded plantings. Second, Iraq’s 2018/19 crop was lowered 77,000 tons to just 43,000 tons, a result of a much lower area forecast. The crop is almost 80 percent smaller than a year earlier and is the smallest rice production in Iraq since 2000/01. Iraq’s 2018/19 rice area forecast was sharply reduced to just 20,000 hectares – the smallest since at least 1960/61 – based on extremely low levels of water in the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, the two most import sources of water for Iraq’s agriculture. Most of the water from these two vital irrigation sources are now captured by upstream regional users before the water can reach Iraq.
Third, Madagascar’s 2018/19 rice production forecast was lowered 0.13 million tons to 2.3 million tons based on a slightly lower area estimate. At 1.43 million hectares, rice harvested area in Madagascar is down 25,000 hectares from the previous forecast unchanged from a year earlier. The area was reduced due to a lack of seeds retained from last year’s drought reduced crop. Finally, Russia’s 2018/19 production forecast was raised 40,000 tons to 620,000 tons based on a larger area estimate reported by the Government of Russia. Despite this month’s upward revisions, both area and production in Russia remain below a year earlier.
The only production revision for 2017/18 was a 64,000-ton reduction in Madagascar’s crop to 1.98 million tons, a result of a lower area estimate. This was the smallest rice crop for Madagascar since 2004/05. The country suffered severe drought in 2017/18.
Global consumption and residual in 2018/18 is projected at 487.8 million tons, down 0.1 million tons from the previous forecast but up 1 percent from a year earlier and the highest on record China accounts for most of the expected increase in global consumption in 2018/19. Consumption and residual use is projected higher in 2018/19 in India and Bangladesh as well. With global consumption fractionally exceeding global production, 2018/19 global ending stocks are projected to decrease 0.2 million tons to 143.6 million tons, the first decline since 2006/07. The global 2018/19 stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 29.4 percent, down slightly from a year earlier.
Pakistan’s 2018 and 2019 Exports Forecast Record High
Global rice trade in calendar year 2019 is projected at a record 49.45 million tons, up 0.1 million tons from the previous forecast and 0.6 million tons above 2018. Pakistan accounts for the bulk of the upward revision in global 2019 exports, with exports projected at a record 4.3 million tons. In contrast, the U.S. 2019 export forecast was lowered 0.1 million tons to 3.2 million tons based on the recent slow pace. Export forecasts for both the EU and Russia were also raised this month. On a year-to-year basis, increased shipments from Argentina, Burma, Cambodia, China, Paraguay, Thailand, and the United States are projected to more than offset reduced exports in 2019 from Brazil, Egypt, India, Peru, and Uruguay. Pakistan’s 2019 exports remain projected to remain record high. Vietnam’s exports are projected unchanged from a year earlier as well.
On the 2019 import side, forecasts for both Iraq and Venezuela were raised this month. China and Nigeria are projected to remain the largest rice importing countries in 2019, followed by the EU and Cote d’Ivoire. Nigeria and Egypt are projected to account for the bulk of the 2019 import increase. Imports in 2019 are also projected to be larger than a year earlier for Benin, Brazil, Burkina, Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, EU, Iran, Iraq, Kenya, Malaysia, Mali, Senegal, and the United Arab Emirates. In contrast, imports in 2019 are projected to be smaller in 2019 than in 2018 for Bangladesh, Ecuador, Indonesia, Madagascar, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Venezuela, with Indonesia and the Philippines declining by the largest amounts. U.S, rice imports in 2019 are projected to remain record high.
Global trade in 2018 is projected at 48.9 million tons, down 0.1 million from the previous forecast but 2 percent larger than a year earlier. Export forecasts were raised this month for Brazil, the EU, Pakistan, and Paraguay, but lowered for Argentina, Burma, the United States, and Venezuela. Brazil, China, India, and Pakistan account for most of the expected increase in exports in 2018. On the 2018 import side, Cote d’Ivoire, Indonesia, Nigeria, the Philippines, the United States, and Venezuela account for most of the projected import increase. In contrast, imports in 2018 are projected to be smaller in Bangladesh, Brazil, China, Iran, Madagascar, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam. Bangladesh, China, and Sri Lanka are projected to experience the largest drop in imports in 2018. ∆
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