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Ark. Has Largest Share Of Upward Revision In Rice Planted Area
The first survey-based estimate of 2018/19 U.S. rice planted area is 2.84 million acres, up nearly 6 percent from the March intended plantings and 15 percent larger than a year earlier.
By State, Arkansas accounts for the largest share of this month’s upward revision in planted area, with total rice plantings revised up 60,000 acres, all long-grain.
On an annual basis, rice plantings are estimated higher in 2018/19 in all reported States, with Arkansas accounting for 61 percent of the total increase. At 1.39 million acres, Arkansas’ 2018/19 rice plantings are up 20 percent from a year earlier, with long-grain accounting for the bulk of the increase.
Despite Delayed Start, Progress of 2018/19 U.S. Rice Crop Near-Normal
Despite a delay in plantings in much of the South due to excessive rain, progress of the 2018/19 crop was near-normal by July 8, with harvest expected to start next week in Southwest Louisiana, typical for that region. Harvest in Texas for the bulk of the crop is expected to start by late July. For the week ending July 8, 21 percent of the U.S. 2018/19 rice crop was reported headed, nearly unchanged from last year or the U.S. 5-year average.
Reported conditions of the 2018/19 crop are similar to a year earlier in several States. For the week ending July 8, 72 percent of the 2018/19 U.S. rice crop was rated in good or excellent condition, unchanged from a year earlier. Also, just 4 percent of the 2017/18 crop was rated in poor or very poor condition compared with 6 percent this year. Conditions varied by State.
U.S. 2018/19 Total Rice Supplies Up 8 Percent from 2017/18
There were several supply side revisions to the 2018/19 U.S. rice balance sheet this month, a result of both data from the June Acreage report and revisions to the 2017/18 rice balance sheet. First, the 2018/19 U.S. rice crop projection was increased 5 percent to 213.0 million cwt, up nearly 20 percent from the year-earlier abnormally small crop. In contrast, the average 2018/19 yield was lowered 11 pounds to 7,599 pounds per acre, with the slight reduction due to area shifts by State. The yield is based on 20-year trends by class. Despite the slight reduction, the 2018/19 average yield is 1 percent above a year earlier but below the 2013/14 record of 7,694 pounds.
By class, U.S. long-grain production is forecast at 156.5 million cwt, up 4 percent from the previous forecast and more than 22 percent larger than a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 56.5 million cwt, up almost 7 percent from the previous forecast and 12 percent larger than the 2017/18 crop.
The 2018/19 U.S. rice carryin is projected at 32.3 million cwt, down 5.0 million cwt from the previous forecast but 30 percent below a year earlier and the smallest since 2014/15.
Imports in 2018/19 remain forecast at 27.0 million cwt, unchanged from the year-earlier record.
Total U.S. rice supplies in 2018/19 are projected at 272.3 million cwt, up 4.8 million cwt from the previous forecast – a result of a larger crop forecast – and more than 8 percent larger than a year earlier.
Forecasts for 2018/19 Domestic Use Raised, Exports Lowered
Total domestic and residual use of rice in 2018/19 is projected at 128.0 million cwt, up 5.0 million cwt from the previous forecast but almost 1 percent smaller than a year earlier.
Total U.S. rice exports in 2018/19 are projected at 102.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast but up 13 percent from a year earlier.
U.S. rough rice exports in 2018/19 remain projected at 34.0 million cwt, up 13 percent from 2017/18, with expanded shipments to Latin America accounting for most of the expected increase.
U.S. milled rice exports (combined milled and brown rice exports on a rough basis) in 2018/19 are projected at 68.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast but 13 percent above a year earlier.
U.S. long-grain exports in 2018/19 remain projected at 72.0 million cwt, up 5.0 million cwt from the year-earlier revised forecast. Latin America, the largest market for U.S. long-grain rice exports, is expected to account for most of the increase, primarily due to more competitive U.S. prices and larger supplies. In recent years, the United States has lost market shares in both Mexico and Central America, mostly to South American exporters and, to a lesser extent, some Asian exporters. The U.S. remains the largest supplier to both of these substantial rice-importing markets, but its share continues to decline, mostly due to improved quality and more competitive prices from South American exporters. In 2017/18, the U.S. lost market share in Venezuela as well, also mostly to South American competitors.
Total use of U.S. rice in 2018/19 is projected at 230.0 million cwt, an increase of 4.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and 5-percent larger than a year earlier.
U.S. Ending Stocks Projected To Increase 31 Percent in 2018/19
U.S. ending stocks of all rice in 2018/19 are projected at 42.3 million cwt, an increase of 2 percent from the previous forecast and 31 percent larger than a year earlier.
U.S. 2017/18 Export Forecast Lowered, Domestic Use Raised
There were several major revisions this month to the 2017/18 U.S. rice balance sheet, all on the use side. First, total domestic and residual use was raised 9.0 million cwt to 129.0 million cwt, 3 percent below a year earlier.
Second, the 2017/18 total U.S. export forecast was lowered 4.0 million cwt to 90.0 million cwt based on monthly Census trade data through May, shipment and sales data reported in the weekly U.S. Export Sales through June 28, and expectations regarding shipments the remainder of the market year.
Milled rice accounted for most of the downward revision in U.S. 2017/18 exports. At 60.0 million cwt, milled-rice exports are 2.0 million cwt below the previous forecast and 19 percent below a year earlier. U.S. 2017/18 rough-rice exports are forecast at 30.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million
U.S. 2018/19 Season-Average Farm Prices Lowered
This month, USDA lowered its forecasts for 2018/19 season-average farm prices for both classes of rice, mostly based on larger supplies.
The U.S. 2018/19 medium- and short-grain season-average farm price is projected at $14.50-$15.50 per cwt, down 20 cents on both ends of the previous range. The all-rice 2018/19 season-average farm price is projected at $11.60-$12.60 per cwt, down 30 cents on both ends of the previous range. The midpoint of the 2018/19 all rice SAFP is 40 cents below a year earlier.
There were small revisions this month to the 2017/18 SAFP forecasts. The 2017/18 long-grain SAFP was revised to $11.70 per cwt from $11.50-$11.70 a month earlier. The 2017/18 long-grain SAFP is well above the $9.61 reported for 2016/17. The California 2017/18 SAFP was revised to $16.70 per cwt from last month’s $16.20-$17.00, well above $14.10 in 2016/17. The Southern medium-grain SAFP of $12.00 per cwt is unchanged from the previous estimate’s mid-point. The U.S. 2017/18 medium- and short-grain SAFP was revised to $15.10 from the previous forecast of $14.70-$15.30 per cwt. Finally, the 2017/18 all-rice SAFP was revised to $12.60 per cwt from the previous forecast of $12.30-$12.70 per cwt. ∆
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