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U.S. Rice Production Projected Up 14 Percent
There were two supply side revisions to the 2018/19 U.S. rice balance sheet this month. First, beginning stocks were increased 3.0 million cwt to 37.3 million cwt due to larger imports and weaker exports in 2017/18. Despite the upward revision, the 2018/19 carryin is forecast 19 percent below a year earlier. The 2018/19 long-grain carryin was increased 1.0 million cwt to 21.4 million cwt, 31 percent below a year earlier. The 2018/19 medium- and short-grain carryin forecast was raised 2.0 million cwt to 12.4 million cwt, nearly 8 percent larger than a year earlier. Beginning stocks of brokens, included in total stock estimates, are not classified by length of grain.
Second, the 2018/19 U.S. rice import forecast was increased 1.0 million cwt – all long-grain – to 27.0 million cwt, unchanged from the year-earlier revised record. The upward revision was based on a record pace of monthly shipments from August 2017 through April 2018. The 2018/19 U.S. long-grain import forecast was increased 4 percent to 23.5 million, also unchanged from the year-earlier record. Similar to 2017/18, Asian aromatics are expected to account for the bulk of U.S. rice imports, with Thailand the largest supplier, followed by India. Combined medium- and short-grain imports remain forecast at 3.5 million cwt, unchanged from a year earlier, but well below the 2006/07 record of 6.3 million cwt.
The 2018/19 U.S. rice crop remains projected at 203.2 million cwt, up 14 percent from a year earlier.
Area forecasts for the 2018/19 crop are currently based on the March survey of farmers planting intentions. The results of first USDA survey, conducted this month, of actual 2018/19 rice plantings will be released on June 29 in the Acreage report.
Planting of the 2018/19 U.S. rice crop is complete, with crop emergence near 100 percent in all six rice producing States.
Total U.S. rice supplies in 2018/19 are projected at 267.5 million cwt, up 4.0 million cwt from the previous forecast – a result of a larger carryin and a higher import forecast – and more than 6 percent large than a year earlier.
Forecasts for 2018/19 U.S. Exports and Domestic Use Raised
This month, USDA raised its 2018/19 forecasts for both domestic use and exports. Total domestic and residual use of rice in 2018/19 is projected at 123.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and 2.5 percent larger than a year earlier. Despite the upward revision, domestic use is still well below the 2010/11 record of 136.9 million cwt. Domestic and residual use account for post-harvest losses, including unreported losses in processing, marketing, and transporting.
Total U.S. rice exports in 2018/19 are projected at 103.0 million cwt, an increase of 2.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and almost 10 percent larger than a year earlier. This month’s upward revision in exports is based on expectations that current sales from the 2017/18 market year – mostly medium- and short-grain purchased by Japan – will not actually ship until early 2018/19.
Rough rice exports in 2018/19 remain projected at 34.0 million cwt, up 10 percent from 2017/18, with expanded shipments to Latin America accounting for most of the expected increase.
U.S. milled rice exports (combined milled and brown rice exports on a rough basis) in 2018/19 are projected at 69.0 million cwt, an increase of 2.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and 9.5 percent above a year earlier.
U.S. long-grain exports in 2018/19 remain projected at 72.0 million cwt, up 3.0 million cwt from a year earlier. Latin America, the largest market for U.S. long-grain rice exports, is expected to account for much of the increase, mostly due to more competitive U.S. prices and larger supplies.
Total use of U.S. rice in 2018/19 is projected at 226.0 million cwt, an increase of 3.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and 6 percent larger than a year earlier.
U.S. Ending Stocks Projected To Increase 11 Percent in 2018/19
U.S. ending stocks of all rice in 2018/19 are projected at 41.5 million cwt, an increase of 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and 11 percent larger than a year earlier.
U.S. 2017/18 Export Forecast Lowered; Imports Raised
There were several revisions this month to the 2017/18 U.S. rice balance sheet. On the supply-side, the 2017/18 total import forecast was raised 1.0 million cwt to a record 27.0 million cwt, 15 percent larger than a year earlier. By class, U.S. long-grain imports are projected at a record 23.5 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and 16 percent higher than a year earlier. Medium- and short-grain imports remain projected at 3.5 million cwt, up 9 percent from 2016/17.
On the use side, the 2017/18 total export forecast was lowered 2.0 million cwt to 94.0 million cwt based on expectations that some sales of medium- and short-grain rice to Japan will not actually ship until early in the 2018/19 market year.
Milled rice accounted for all of the downward revision in U.S. 2017/18 exports. At 63.0 million cwt, 2017/18 milled-rice exports are 15 percent below a year earlier.
On balance, these trade revisions raised 2017/18 ending stocks 3.0 million cwt to 37.3 million cwt, 19 percent below a year earlier.
2017/18 Long-Grain Season-Average Farm Price Lowered
There were no revisions to the 2018/19 season-average farm price (SAFP) forecasts this month. However, there was a slight revision to the 2017/18 long-grain SAFP. The long-grain 2017/18 SAFP range was lowered 10 cents on both ends to $$11.50-$11.70, based on reported monthly prices through April and expectations regarding prices and marketings the remainder of the market year. In addition, the U.S. medium- and short-grain SAFP range was lowered 20 cents on both ends to $14.70-$15.30 per cwt, based on revised projected market year marketings by region.
The 2018/19 long-grain SAFP remains projected at $11.00-$12.00 per cwt, with the midpoint down 10 cents from 2017/18. The southern medium- and short-grain season-average farm price remains projected at $11.20-$12.20 per cwt, with the midpoint 30 cents below a year earlier.
In late May, NASS reported the April long-grain price at $12.00 per cwt, up 10 cents from a month earlier and the highest since January 2015. The southern medium- and short-grain April price was reported at $12.80 per cwt, up 50 cents from March and highest since August 2015. The U.S. medium- and short-grain April price was reported at $15.60 per cwt, unchanged from March. The all-rice April price was reported at $12.90 per cwt, up 20 cents from March. ∆
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