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Global Rice Production Rises Due To Expanded Area
Global rice production in 2018/19 is projected at a record 489.5 million tons, up 1.3 million tons from 2017/18 and the third consecutive year of increasing production. The global production increase is due to expanded area.
These expected production increases were partially offset by several reductions. First, China’s 2018/19 production is projected to decline 1 percent from the 2017/18 record to 144.5 million tons, based on a small decline in area caused by reduced government minimum-purchase prices. Second, India’s 2018/19 production is projected to drop 1.0 million tons to 109.0 million as yields return to trend. South Korea’s production is projected to decline 3 percent to 3.85 million tons based on continued area decline.
Outside Asia, Egypt’s 2018/19 production is projected to decline 1.0 million tons to 3.3 million tons based on much stricter enforcement of area limits. Iraq’s production is projected to decrease 43 percent to just 120,000 tons, due mostly to a 35-percent area contraction caused by reduced water availability. Colombia’s 2018/19 production is projected to decline 8 percent to 1.64 million tons due to a 10.5 percent area decline due to lack of profitability for rice. Finally, Venezuela’s 2018/19 production is projected to drop 49 percent to just 140,000 tons, the smallest since 1972/73.
Global rice consumption in 2018/19 is projected at a record 488.6 million tons, up 1.5 percent from a year earlier. China accounts for the largest share of the expected consumption increase. Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, the Philippines, Vietnam, and the United States are all expected to increase rice consumption in 2018/19. In contrast, Thailand’s 2018/19 rice consumption is projected to drop 10.5 percent to 10.0 million tons as sales of low-quality government stocks for feed and industrial uses are expected to be completed. Japan and South Korea are projected to continue their long-term rice consumption decline due to diet diversification and an aging population.
With production exceeding consumption for the 14th consecutive year, global ending stocks are projected to increase 0.9 million tons to 144.7 million tons, the highest since the 2000/01 record of 146.7.
Global Rice Trade Projected Record High in 2019
Global rice trade in 2019 is projected at a record 49.5 million tons, up 0.6 million from a year earlier and the third consecutive year of increasing global trade. On the 2019 export side, shipments are projected to be larger in 2019 from China, Paraguay, Thailand, the United States, and Venezuela, with Thailand’s 0.5-million-ton increase to 10.5 million tons the largest. These export expansions are projected to be partially offset by reduced shipments from Brazil, Egypt, India, and Uruguay, with India’s 0.2-million-ton decline to 13.0 million tons the largest reduction. Despite this expected reduction, India is projected to remain the largest rice exporter for the 8th consecutive year. Burma’s 2018 and 2019 projected rice exports of 3.5 million tons exceed the previous record, achieved shortly before World War II began in the Pacific in late 1941.
On the 2019 import side, purchases in 2019 are projected larger than a year earlier for Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Egypt, the European Union, Iraq, Nigeria, Senegal, and the United Arab Emirates. Nigeria’s 0.4 million-ton increase in imports to 3.0 million tons is the largest projected import increase for 2019. These expected import increases will be partially offset by several reductions, with 2019 imports projected to decline for Bangladesh, Indonesia, Madagascar, the Philippines, and Venezuela. Bangladesh is expected to post the largest decline, with imports dropping 0.7 million tons to 1.1 million tons due to a substantial crop recovery. Indonesia’s 2019 imports are projected to decline 0.6 million tons due to a slightly larger crop and adequate domestic supplies. U.S. 2019 imports are projected to remain at a record 825,000 tons. In 2019, China is projected to remain the largest rice importing country, with imports projected at 5.5 million tons, unchanged from a year earlier but below the 2016 record of 5.9 million tons. Nigeria remains the second largest importer, followed by the European Union, which is projected to import a record 2.0 million tons of rice in 2019. Several West African countries now import more than a million tons of rice a year, with Cote d’Ivoire projected to take a record 1.65 million in 2019 and Senegal projected to import 1.25 million tons. Both consumption and imports are increasing at a rapid pace in West Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to import a record 16.2 million tons of rice in 2019, up 6 percent from a year earlier, making it again the largest importing region in the world. In Sub-Saharan Africa, production, consumption, and imports are all projected to be larger in 2019 than in 2018.
Global Rice Trading Prices Increase on Stronger Demand
Price quotes for most grades of Thailand’s regular milled white rice rose 1-2 percent over the past month, mostly due to large purchases by the Philippines and Indonesia. For the week ending May 7, Thailand’s 100-percent grade B milled white rice was quoted at $446 per ton, up $6 from the week ending April 9. Prices for Thailand’s lower quality 15-percent brokens were quoted at $430 per ton for the week ending May 7, up $10 from the week ending April 9. For the week ending May 8, prices for Vietnam’s 5- percent broken regular milled white rice were quoted at $460 per ton, up $30 from the week ending April 10.
U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice have increased over the past month as well. For the week ending May 8, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free on board (fob) vessel, U.S. Gulfport) were quoted at $620 per ton, up $30 from the week ending April 10. The U.S. price difference over Thailand’s 100-percent Grade B milled rice rose to $174 per ton for the week ending May 8 from $150 a month earlier. Prices for U.S. long- grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) were quoted at $330 per ton for the week ending May 8, unchanged from the week ending April 10.
U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice are down slightly from a month earlier. For the week ending April 3, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free on board (fob) vessel, U.S. Gulfport) were quoted at $590 per ton, down $5 from the week ending March 6. The U.S. price difference over Thailand’s 100-percent Grade B milled rice declined to $150 per ton from $181 in early March. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) were quoted at $310 per ton for the week ending April 3, down $5 from the week end March 6. ∆
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