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More Rice Production This Year On Local Front
U.S. 2018/19 Rice Production Projected at 203.2 Million cwt The 2018/19 U.S. rice crop is projected to be up 14 percent from a year earlier. The 2018/19 planted area forecast is from the March planting intentions reported by NASS. The first survey of actual plantings of the 2018/19 U.S. rice crop will be reported in the June Acreage to be released on June 29. Harvested area for 2018/19 is based on the previous 5-year average of harvested area to plantings ratio.
The 2018/19 all-rice yield is forecast at 7,610 pounds per acre, up 1.4 percent from a year earlier but still below the 2013/14 record of 7,694 pounds.
Long-grain production is forecast at 150.2 million cwt, up 17.5 percent from a year earlier, mostly due to expanded plantings in the South.
Combined medium- and short-grain production is projected at 53.0 million cwt, up 5 percent from a year earlier, primarily due to larger plantings in the South.
Planting Pace of 2018/19 Crop Near-Average in the South
Although plantings in much the South, particularly the Delta, got off to a slower-than-normal start this year due to a cool, wet spring, the pace of plantings had caught up to near-normal by early May. For the week ending May 6, planting of the 2018/19 total U.S. rice crop was estimated to be 68-percent complete.
In contrast to much of the South, plantings in California are well behind the State’s 5-year average, mostly due to an abnormally cool spring.
Farther north, crop development was less advanced than on the Gulf Coast – as is typical – and behind State 5-year averages.
U.S. 2018/19 Total Supplies Projected To Be Down 5 Percent
Total rice carryin for 2018/19 is projected at 34.3 million cwt, down 26 percent from a year earlier and the smallest since 2014/15. Long-grain carryin in 2018/19 is projected at 20.4 million cwt, down 34 percent from a year earlier, also the lowest since 2014/15. Medium- and short-grain carryin is forecast at 10.4 million cwt, down 10 percent from 2017/18. The smaller carryin in 2018/19 is mostly due to a substantial crop reduction in 2017/18, which cut total supplies 15 percent.
Imports in 2018/19 are projected at 26.0 million cwt, unchanged from the year-earlier record. Aromatics from Asia, mostly classified as long grain, are expected to continue to account for the bulk of U.S. rice imports, with Thailand continuing to be the largest supplier. Long-grain 2018/19 imports are projected at 22.5 million cwt, also unchanged from the year-earlier record. Medium- and short-grain imports in 2018/19 are projected at 3.5 million cwt, unchanged from a year earlier but well below the 2006/07 record of 6.3 million cwt when Puerto Rico was importing substantial amounts of rice.
Total U.S. rice supplies in 2018/19 are projected at 263.5 million cwt, up 5 percent from a year earlier, a result of a larger crop. Long-grain supplies are projected at 193.1 million cwt, up 6.5 percent from a year earlier, also due to a much larger crop. Medium- and short-grain supplies are forecast at 66.9 million cwt, up 2 percent from 2017/18.
U.S. Exports and Domestic Use Projected Higher in 2018/19
Total use of U.S. rice in 2018/19 is projected at 223.0 million cwt, up 3 percent from a year earlier, with both exports and domestic use projected higher. Long-grain total use is projected at 167.0 million cwt, up 4 percent from 2017/18. Medium- and short-grain total use in 2018/19 is projected at 56.0 million cwt, an increase of 2 percent from a year earlier, with exports accounting for all of the increase. Total domestic and residual use in 2018/19 is projected at 122.0 million cwt, up 2 percent from a year earlier but still well below the 2010/11 record of 136.9 million cwt. Long-grain domestic and residual use is projected at 95.0 million cwt, up 3 percent from 2017/18. Medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use is projected at 56.0 million cwt, an increase of 2 percent from 2017/18.
Total U.S. rice exports in 2018/19 are projected at 101.0 million cwt, up 5 percent from a year earlier but still well below the 2016/17 near-record of 116.6 million cwt.
Rough rice exports in 2018/19 are projected to increase 10 percent to 34.0 million cwt, with expanded sales to Latin America accounting for most of the increase. U.S. sales to the Mediterranean are expected to be higher as well.
Milled rice exports (combined milled and brown rice exports on a rough-basis) in 2018/19 are projected at 67.0 million cwt, up 3 percent from a year earlier.
U.S. long-grain exports in 2018/19 are projected at 72.0 million cwt, up 3.0 million cwt from a year earlier.
U.S. Ending Stocks Projected To Increase 18 Percent in 2018/19
U.S. rice ending stocks in 2018/19 are projected at 40.5 million cwt, up 18 percent from a year earlier but still below the abnormally high levels held in 2014/15-2016/17.
The stocks buildup varies by class. Long-grain 2018/19 ending stocks are projected at 26.1 million cwt, up 28 percent from a year earlier. The long-grain stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 15.6 percent, 3 percentage points above 2017/18.
For medium- and short-grain rice, 2018/19 ending stocks are projected at 10.9 million cwt, up 5 percent from a year earlier. The medium- and short-grain stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 19.4 percent, up just 0.6 percent from 2017/18.
For the 2017/18 U.S. rice balance sheet, there was a 1.0-million cwt increase in total imports to a record 26.0 million cwt, 11 percent above a year earlier.
Long-Grain Season-Average Farm Price Projected To Decline
The 2018/19 long-grain season-average farm price is projected at $11.00-$12.00 per cwt, compared with $11.60-$11.80 a year earlier, with the midpoint down 20 cents in 2018/19.
For 2017/18, USDA raised the midpoint of the California medium- and short-grain season-average price 10 cents per cwt to $16.60 and lowered the southern medium- and short-grain season-average farm price midpoint 10 cents per cwt to $12.00.
In late April, NASS reported the March long-grain price at $11.90 per cwt, unchanged from a month earlier but up $1.20 from August. The southern medium- and short-grain March price was reported at $12.30 per cwt, down 30 cents from February but up $1.30 from August. The California medium- and short-grain March price was reported at $17.90 per cwt, up 60 cents from February and the highest since May 2016. The U.S. medium- and short-grain March price was reported at $15.60 per cwt, up 80 cents from February. The all-rice March price was reported at $12.70 per cwt, up 10 cents from February. ∆
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