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Global Production For 2017/18 Reaches New Record
The projection for global 2017/18 rice production is raised 1.2 million metric tons (mt) (milled basis) to a new record of 487.46 million mt, up 0.2 percent from the record set last year. Brazil, Burma, Pakistan, and the Philippines are expected to have increases of 0.3 million mt each. There were no significant reductions in production estimates from last month.
Global rice trade in calendar year 2018 is projected to be at a record high of 48.6 million mt. Global rice exports are raised 0.8 million mt relative to the March forecast with a 0.3-million-ton increase for Thailand and 0.2- million-ton increases each for Burma, India, and Pakistan.
Global rice imports are raised 0.8 million mt relative to the March estimate, to 48.6 million mt. Indonesia imports were raised 0.5 million and Bangladesh imports were raised 0.2 million mt. Import forecasts were also raised for Ghana and the Philippines.
Global domestic use is reduced fractionally to 480.15 million mt from 480.49 million mt. The large global supply combined with declining consumption, has led to increased 2017/18 world ending stocks. The projection for global ending stocks is revised upward by 1.4 million mt to 144.4 million, the second-highest stocks on record.
Thailand rice export quotes increased by 2 to 4 percent due to strong demand from African countries for low-grade white rice. For the week ending April 2, Thailand’s 100-percent grade B milled white rice was quoted at $440 per ton, up $15 from the week ending March 26, and up $21 for the week ending March 5. Prices for Thailand’s lower quality 15-percent brokens were quoted at $420 per ton for the week ending April 2, up $15 and $39 compared to the weeks ending March 26 and March 5, respectively. Prices for Thailand’s premium Jasmine rice, an aromatic variety, were quoted at $1,095 per ton in the week ending April 2, up $15 from the week ending March 26, but down $13 from the week ending March 5. All price quotes for Thailand’s rice are from the Weekly Rice Price Update reported by the U.S. Agricultural Office in Bangkok.
Price quotes for Vietnam’s rice decreased 1 percent in March relative to the February average for 5-percent broken regular milled white rice. For the week ending April 2, Vietnam’s 5-percent broken regular milled white rice was quoted at $430 per ton, up $5 from the week ending March 26, and up $15 from the week ending March 5.
U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice are down slightly from a month earlier. For the week ending April 3, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free on board (fob) vessel, U.S. Gulfport) were quoted at $590 per ton, down $5 from the week ending March 6. The U.S. price difference over Thailand’s 100-percent Grade B milled rice declined to $150 per ton from $181 in early March. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) were quoted at $310 per ton for the week ending April 3, down $5 from the week end March 6. The California medium-grain milled rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, sacked, free on board, domestic mill) quote for the week ending April 3 remained unchanged relative to the previous-month quote, at $903 per ton. Export prices for California medium-grain milled-rice (4-percent brokens, sacked, on board vessel in Oakland) were quoted at $970 per ton for the week ending April 3, unchanged when compared to last month’s quote. Price quotes for Vietnam, U.S. long- and medium-grain milled rice, and U.S. rough-rice export prices are from the weekly Creed Rice Market Report. ∆
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