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Production Forecast Lowered For Bangladesh, Venezuela
Global rice production in 2017/18 is projected at 484.3 million tons (milled basis), down 0.4 million tons from the previous forecast but 0.5 percent below the year-earlier record. There were three downward 2017/18 production revisions this month, two in South America and one in South Asia.
First, Bangladesh’s 2017/18 production forecast was lowered 0.35 million tons to 32.65 million tons due to a smaller area estimate and slightly weaker average yield reported by the U.S. Agricultural Office in Dhaka.
Second, Venezuela’s 2017/18 rice production forecast was lowered 25,000 tons to 265,000 tons due to smaller area and yield estimates provided by the U.S. Agriculture Office in Bogota. Finally, Argentina’s 2017/18 rice crop was lowered 6,000 tons to 806,000 tons based on slightly lower area and yield estimates reported by the Ministry of Agriculture. Argentina’s 2017/18 production, which will be harvested this spring, is nearly 7 percent smaller than a year earlier.
These three downward revisions were slightly offset by a 3,000-ton increase in Mexico’s 2017/18 production to 188,000 tons, more than 7 percent larger than a year earlier.
The 2016/17 global production forecast was lowered 0.3 million tons to 486.8 million, up 13.8 million tons from a year earlier and the highest on record. There was one major production revision for 2016/17 this month along with two much smaller revisions, all reductions.
Global rice consumption in 2017/18 is projected at 480.8 million tons, down 1.0 million tons from the previous forecast and 1.4 million tons below the 2016/17 record. This month, 2017/18 consumption forecasts were lowered for Bangladesh, Burma, India, Vietnam, and Venezuela. On an annual basis, Brazil, Burma, Indonesia, Thailand, and the United States account for most of the projected decline in consumption. With production exceeding consumption by 3.6 million tons, global ending stocks in 2017/18 increase almost 4 percent to 140.8 million tons, the highest since the 2000/01 record of 146.7 million tons. At 94.0 million tons, China accounts for more than two-thirds of global ending stocks and most of the expected increase in 2017/18.
Export Forecasts for 2018 Raised for Burma, China, India, and Vietnam
Global rice trade in calendar year 2018 is projected at 47.4 million tons, up 1.1 million tons from the previous forecast but 0.2 million tons below the year-earlier record. Global rice trade in 2018 is the second highest on record. There were revisions to major exporters that increased the 2018 export forecast 2.4 percent: export forecasts were raised this month for Burma, China, India, and Vietnam, with India and Burma exporting record amounts.
At 3.3 million tons, Burma’s exports finally match the record levels shipped prior to World War II and mark Burma’s return as a major exporter. China’s 2018 projected exports of 1.6 million tons are up 36 percent from a year earlier and the highest since 2003. China’s exports nearly tripled in 2017, with China now shipping long-grain to Africa and the Middle East as well as continuing to ship medium-grain to its traditional markets in East Asia. India’s 2018 export forecast of a record 12.5 million tons is the largest amount of rice ever shipped by one country. Vietnam’s 2018 projected exports of 6.7 million tons are the highest since 2013.
On the 2018 import side, number one importer China is projected to import 5.5 million tons of rice, unchanged from the year-earlier record. China is expected to account for nearly 12 percent of global imports in 2018. Nigeria remains the number two importer, projected to purchase 2.6 million tons, up 0.1 million tons from 2017. At a record 1.9 million tons, the European Union is projected to be the third largest import market. EU imports have increased 38 percent since 2014. Production problems in 2017/18 raised Bangladesh’s 2017 and 2018 imports sharply from previous years. Although projected to decline 27 percent in 2018, Bangladesh’s imports of 1.6 million tons make it the fourth largest buyer. Cote’ d’Ivoire is projected to import a record 1.5 million tons of rice in 2018, making it the fifth largest importer.
Global Trading Prices Rose on Strong Demand from Indonesia
Price quotes for most grades of Thailand’s regular milled white rice rose 9-11 percent in January, mostly due to large purchases by Indonesia. This buying has largely subsided, and prices dropped about 2 percent in early February. For the week ending February 5, Thailand’s 100 percent grade B milled white rice was quoted at $439 per ton, up $28 from the week ending January 8. Prices for Thailand’s lower quality 15-percent brokens were quoted at $420 per ton for the week ending February 5, up $35 from the week ending January 8. Prices for Thailand’s premium jasmine rice – an aromatic – were quoted at $1,113 per ton for the week ending February 5, up $129 from the week ending January 8. All price quotes for Thailand’s rice are from the Weekly Rice Price Update reported by the U.S. Agricultural Office in Bangkok.
Price quotes for Vietnam’s rice increased around 11 percent in January before dropping slightly in early February. Prices were boosted by strong demand from Indonesia, the Philippines, China, and Cuba. For the week ending February 6, price for Vietnam’s 5-percent broken regular milled white rice were quoted at $435 per ton, up $35 from the week ending January 9, but down $10 from the end of January.
U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice have increased over the past month. For the week ending February 6, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free on board (fob) vessel, U.S. Gulfport) were quoted at $590 per ton, up $5 from the week ending January 9. The U.S. price difference over Thailand’s 100-percent Grade B milled rice declined to $151 per ton from $174 in early January. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) were quoted at $305 per ton for the week ending February 6, up $10 from the week ending January 9.
Price quotes in California also increased. California medium-grain milled rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, sacked, free on board, domestic mill) were quoted at $885 per ton for the week ending February 6, up $27 from the week ending January 9. Export prices for California medium-grain milled-rice (4-percent brokens, sacked, on board vessel in Oakland) were quoted at $915 per ton for the week ending February 6, unchanged since the start of January. ∆
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