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Large Acreages, Good Weather, Spur Global Production Estimates
Global rice production in 2017/18 is projected at 484.7 million tons (milled basis), up 1.2 million tons from the previous forecast, but 0.5 percent below the year-earlier record. There were four upward 2017/18 production revisions this month. First, the Philippines’ production forecast was raised 770,000 tons to a record 11.97 million tons, up 7 percent from a year earlier. The upward revision was due to a 300,000-hectare increase in harvested area to 4.8 million hectares, up 2 percent from a year earlier and unchanged from the 2013/14 record. The higher area estimate is supported by data from the Philippine Statistical Authority. Also, a substantial shift away from rice to corn is not expected this year due to delays in the tariffication of rice imports. Increased output is also expected as a result of favorable weather conditions and increased use of high-yielding varieties. In addition, there were fewer intense typhoons this year affecting major rice-producing areas compared to previous years.
Second, Pakistan’s 2017/18 rice production was increased 300,000 tons to a record 7.2 million tons due to a higher yield. The crop is 5 percent above a year earlier. At 4.0 tons per hectare, Pakistan’s average yield is the highest on record. Third, Ecuador’s 2017/18 production forecast was raised 193,000 tons to 882,000 tons due to a higher yield. The yield was raised based on 2010/11-2016/17 area, yield, and production revisions reported by the Government. Despite the upward revision, Ecuador’s production is 18 percent below a year earlier. Finally, Russia’s 2017/18 production estimate was raised 15,000 tons to 640,000 tons due to larger area reported by the Government.
These 2017/18 upward production revisions were partially offset by two reductions. First, Costa Rica’s 2017/18 production was lowered 32,000 tons to 123,000 tons due to a reduced area estimate. Yields of the 2017 first and second season rice crops were adversely affected by excess precipitation caused by concurrent hurricanes and tropical storms in September and October. Second, the U.S. production forecast was lowered 5,000 tons to 5.66 million tons based on a smaller area estimate reported by the Government. The yield was actually raised.
The 2016/17 global production forecast was 0.3 million tons to 487.1 million, up 14.1 million tons from a year earlier. There were two upward and two downward revisions for 2016/17 this month. First, Ecuador’s 2016/17 production was raised 420,000 tons to 1.08 million tons due to a larger area and a much higher yield reported by the Government. Second, China’s 2016/17 production estimate was increased 103,000 tons to almost 145 million tons due to a higher yield. Area was actually lowered. These two upward revisions were nearly offset by two reductions. First, Vietnam’s 2016/17 production estimate was lowered 150,000 tons to 27.4 million tons due to a weaker yield; area was actually raised. Second, Costa Rica’s 2016/17 production was lowered 25,000 tons to 130,000 tons due to a much lower area estimate.
Global rice consumption in 2017/18 is projected at a record 481.7 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from the previous forecast and 0.15 million tons above 2016/17. Consumption is 3.0 million tons below 2017/18 production. Global ending stocks in 2017/18 are projected at 140.7 million tons, up 0.35 million tons from the previous forecast and 3.0 million tons larger than 2016/17. Ending stocks are the highest since 2000/01. Bangladesh and the Philippines account for most of the month-to-month increase in global ending stocks.
Global Rice Trade in 2017 Was the Highest on Record
Global rice trade in 2018 is projected at 46.2 million tons, up 0.7 million tons from the previous forecast but 0.6 million tons below the year-earlier record. Global rice trade in 2018 is the second highest on record. India and Thailand are projected to remain the largest exporters, while China and Nigeria remain the largest importers, followed by the EU and Bangladesh.
Thailand’s Prices Show Little Change; U.S. Milled Rice Prices Increase
Price quotes for most grades of Thailand’s regular milled white rice changed little over the past month, as a lack of new demand over the holidays was offset by a stronger Thai baht. For the week ending January 8, Thailand’s 100-percent grade B milled white rice was quoted at $411 per ton, down $1 from the week ending December 11. Prices for Thailand’s lower quality 15-percent brokens were quoted at $385 per ton for the week ending January 8, up $1 from the week ending December 11. Prices for Thailand’s premium jasmine rice – an aromatic – were quoted at $984 per ton for the week ending January 8, down $7 from the week ending December 11. All price quotes for Thailand’s rice are from the Weekly Rice Price Update reported by the U.S. Agricultural Office in Bangkok.
In contrast, price quotes for Vietnam’s rice were unchanged over the past month. For the week ending January 9, Vietnam’s price for its 5-percent broken regular milled white rice was quoted at $390 per ton, unchanged from the week ending December 12.
U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice increased over the past month. For the week ending January 9, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free on board (fob) vessel, U.S. Gulfport) were quoted at $585 per ton, up $20 from the week ending December 5. The U.S. price difference over Thailand’s 100-percent Grade B milled rice was $174 per ton, up from $152 in early December but still below the record of $205-$210 reported in the fall of 2015. In contrast, prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) were quoted at $295 per ton for the week ending January 9, down $20 from early December.
Price quotes in California also increased. California medium-grain milled rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, sacked, free on board, domestic mill) were quoted at $858 per ton for the week ending January 9, up $10 from the week ending December 5. Export prices for California medium-grain milled-rice (4-percent brokens, sacked, on board vessel in Oakland) were quoted at $915 per ton for the week ending January 9, up $25 from the week ending December 5. Sales of California medium- and short-grain rice have been especially strong since the start of 2018. ∆
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