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Rice Crop Acreage At Lowest Level Since Late '80s
The 2017/18 U.S. rice crop estimate was lowered 0.2 million cwt to 178.2 million cwt, more than 20 percent below a year earlier.
By class, the 2017/18 U.S. long-grain crop is estimated at 127.9 million cwt, up 1.7 million cwt from the previous forecast but 23 percent below a year earlier.
This month, USDA lowered 2017/18 harvested area estimates in California (down 15,000 acres), Mississippi (down 4,000 acres), and Texas (down 9,000 acres), but raised its harvested area estimate 11,000 acres in Arkansas. Louisiana and Missouri harvested area estimates were unchanged.
Rice Production in 20017/18 Estimated Smaller in All Reported States
Rice harvested area in 2017/18 was lower than a year earlier in all reported States, with Arkansas reporting more than half of the 723,000-acre decline. At 1.1 million acres, rice harvested area in Arkansas is 27 percent below a year earlier and the smallest since 2013/14.
Average yields in 2017/18 were higher than a year earlier in all reported States except in California and Texas, where yields were lower. Missouri’s 2017/18 yield increased 12 percent to a record 7,440 pounds per acre, Nearby Arkansas’ 2017/18 average yield of 7,490 pounds per acres was up 8 percent from a year earlier. Mississippi’s 2017/18 rice yield of 7,400 pounds per acre was up 3 percent from a year earlier.
Arkansas accounted for almost half the 45.9 million cwt decrease in U.S. rice production in 2017/18. At 82.6 million cwt, the Arkansas 2017/18 rice crop is 22 percent smaller than a year earlier, with long-grain accounting for all of the decline.
U.S. Total Rice Supplies Projected To Be 20 Percent Smaller in 2017/18
At 249.2 million cwt, total U.S. rice supplies in 2017/18 are projected to be 15 percent below a year earlier and the smallest since 2003/04. Long-grain total supplies are projected to decline 14 percent to 180.4 million cwt, a result of a smaller crop. Combined medium- and short-grain supplies are projected at 65.3 million cwt, 20 percent less than a year earlier and the smallest since 2008/09. The decline is due to both a smaller carryin and a reduced crop.
All-rice beginning stocks remain estimated at 46.0 million cwt, down 1 percent from a year earlier. Long-grain 2017/18 beginning stocks remain estimated at 31.0 million cwt, 37 percent above a year earlier and the highest since 2011/12.
The U.S. all-rice import forecasts for 2017/18 was raised 0.4 million cwt to 24.9 million cwt, up 6 percent from a year earlier and the highest on record. The upward revision was based on reported shipments through November and expectations regarding imports the remainder of the market year.
Based on data reported in the January Rice Stocks, U.S. rice stocks on December 1, 2017,are estimated at 129.2 million cwt (roughequivalent of milled- and rough-rice stocks), 23 percent below a year earlier and well below expectations. By class, long-grain December 1 rice stocks are estimated at 84.5 million cwt, 23 percent below a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain December 1 stocks are estimated at 40.3 million cwt, 27 percent below a year earlier. Stocks of brokens, not reported by class, are estimated at 4.4 million cwt, 38 percent above a year earlier.
Rice stocks were estimated to be smaller than a year earlier in all reported States, with Arkansas accounting for about half of all rice stocks.
U.S. 2017/18 Rice Export Forecast Lowered 3.0 Million Cwt to 100 Million Total use of rice in 2017/18 is forecast at 220.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from the previous forecast but 11 percent below a year earlier. By class, long-grain total use was increased 2.0 million cwt to 164.0 million cwt, still 8 percent below a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain total use remains forecast at 56.0 million cwt, 20 percent below a year earlier. In 2017/18, both exports and domestic use are limited by much smaller supplies.
Total domestic and residual use in 2017/18 is projected at 120.0 million cwt, up 5.0 million cwt from the previous forecast but still 9 percent below a year earlier.
Total U.S. rice exports in 2017/18 are projected at 100.0 million cwt, down 3.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and 14 percent below a year earlier.
Combined medium- and short-grain exports in 2017/18 remain projected at 29.0 million cwt, 24 percent below a year earlier and the smallest since 2014/15, when a West Coast port strike delayed shipments until early in the 2015/16 market year.
By type, rough-rice exports are projected at 34.0 million cwt, down 2.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and 20 percent below a year earlier and the smallest since 2011/12.
The 2017/18 U.S. ending stocks forecast was lowered 1.8 million cwt to 29.2 million cwt, 37 percent below a year earlier and the smallest since 2003/04. The stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 13.3 percent, well below 18.6 percent a year earlier.
U.S. 2017/18 Season-Average Long-grain Farm Price Lowered
This month, USDA lowered its season-average farm prices (SAFP) for long-grain rice, but raised it for combined medium- and short-grain rice. The 2017/18 U.S. long-grain SAFP was lowered 30 cents on both ends of the forecast range to $11.30 to $12.30 per cwt, still up from $9.64 a year earlier. The southern medium- and short-grain price was also lowered 30 cents on both ends of the forecast range to $11.50 to $12.50 per cwt, still up from $10.10 a year earlier.
The U.S. medium- and short grain SAFP was raised 30 cents on both ends of the forecast range to $14.50 to $15.50 per cwt, well above $12.90 a year earlier. The U.S. 2017/18 all rice SAFP was lowered 20 cents on both ends of the forecast range to $12.10 to $13.10 per cwt, also well above $10.40 a year earlier.
In late December, USDA reported a long-grain monthly average cash price for November of $11.50 per cwt, up 30 cents from October. The California November medium- and short-grain cash price was reported at $15.60 per cwt, $2.00 from October. The November southern medium- and short-grain price was reported at $11.60 per cwt, up 10 cents from October and the sixth consecutive monthly increase.
The November U.S. medium- and short-grain price was reported at $14.80 per cwt, up $2.10 from October. The all-rice November price was reported at $12.50 per cwt, up 90 cents from October. ∆
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