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U.S. 2017/18 Rice Crop Forecast Lowered Slightly; Import Forecast Increased
There were two nearly offsetting 2017/18 U.S. rice supply-side revisions this month. First, the 20017/18 U.S. rice crop forecast was lowered 0.2 million cwt to 178.4 million cwt, down 20 percent from a year earlier.
By class, the 2017/18 U.S. long-grain production forecast was lowered 144,000 cwt to 126.1 million cwt, a 24-percent decline from a year earlier and the smallest since 2011/12. The 2017/18 U.S. medium- and short-grain production forecast was lowered 60,000 cwt to 52.24 million cwt, down 9 percent from a year earlier and the smallest since 2008/09.
This month, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service lowered its 2017/18 yield estimates in Louisiana and Texas, but raised its yield estimates in Arkansas and Missouri.
In contrast to the 2017/18 production forecast, the U.S. 2017/18 import forecast was raised 0.3 million cwt to 24.5 million cwt, up 4 percent from a year earlier and the highest on record.
Through September 2017, U.S, imports of all rice on an actual shipment weight basis were 19 percent above a year earlier. At 68,116 tons, U.S. rice imports in September were the highest since March 2017 and the fourth consecutive month of increasing imports.
U.S. 2017/18 Export Forecast Lowered 2.0 Million Cwt to 104 Million Cwt
A slow pace of shipments and sales through late October and expectations regarding sales and shipments the rest of the market year resulted in a 2-million cwt reduction in the 2017/18 U.S. all-rice export forecast to 104.0 million cwt.
U.S. medium- and short-grain exports are projected at 30.0 million cwt, 21 percent below a year earlier. U.S. shipments through late October were well behind a year earlier to both Northeast Asia and the Mediterranean, which together account for the bulk of U.S. medium- and short-grain rice exports. While the U.S. is expected to achieve its typical level of World Trade Organization sales to Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, U.S. sales to the Mediterranean are expected to be lower this year.
By type, U.S. rough-rice exports are projected at 38.0 million cwt, down 2.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and 11 percent below a year earlier. U.S. sales to South America, nearly all long-grain, and sales to North Africa, nearly all medium- and short-grain, are well behind a year earlier. Milled rice exports (brown- and milled-rice exports on a rough-rice basis) remain projected at 66.0 million cwt, also 11 percent below a year earlier. The U.S. continues to face competition in the milled-rice market in both Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. In addition, South American exporters have been increasing sales to U.S. milled rice markets in Latin America.
Total domestic and residual use of U.S. rice in 2017/18 remains projected at 115.0 million cwt, 12.5 percent smaller than a year earlier. The year-to-year decline in domestic and residual use is also largely driven by projections for a smaller crop and by higher prices. Long-grain domestic and residual use remains projected at 88.0 million cwt, 12 percent below 2016/17. Medium- and short-grain domestic use remains projected at 27.0 million cwt, 15 percent below a year earlier and the lowest since 1988/89.
U.S. all-rice 2017/18 ending stocks are projected at 29.9 million cwt, up 2.1 million cwt from the previous forecast but 35 percent below a year earlier and the smallest since 2007/08. The ending stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 13.7 percent, down from 18.6 percent a year earlier. Long-grain ending stocks are forecast at 16.5 million cwt, up 1.2 million cwt from the previous forecast but 47 percent below a year earlier. The long-grain stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 10.2 percent, down from 17.4 percent a year earlier. Medium- and short-grain ending stocks are forecast at 9.9 million cwt, up 0.94 million cwt from the previous forecast but 14 percent below a year earlier. These are the smallest U.S. medium- and short-grain stocks since 2008/09. The medium- and short-grain stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 17.4 percent, up from 16.5 percent in 2016/17.
U.S. 2017/18 Long-Grain and Southern Medium- and Short-grain Season-Average Farm Prices Lowered
This month, USDA lowered its 2017/18 U.S. season-average farm price (SAFP) for both long-grain rice and for southern medium- and short-grain rice. In addition, NASS made small revisions for the 2016/17 SAFPs for both classes of rice in both regions. The 2017/18 revisions were largely based on reported monthly cash prices and marketings through September and expectations regarding prices and marketings the remainder of the market year. The 2017/18 long-grain SAFP is projected at $11.80-$12.80 per cwt, down 20 cents on both ends of the forecast range from last month but well above the revised $9.64 in 2016/17. The Southern medium- and short-grain 2017/18 SAFP is forecast at $12.00-$13.00 per cwt, also down 20 cents on both ends of the range from the previous forecast but up from a revised $10.10 in 2016/17. The California medium- and short-grain 2017/18 SAFP remains forecast at $15.50-$16.50, up from a revised $13.70 in 2016/17. The 2017/18 U.S. medium- and short-grain SAFP is forecast at $14.60-$15.60 per cwt, down 10 cents on both ends of the forecast range from last month but above a revised $12.90 in 2016/17. The 2017/18 all rice SAFP is projected at $12.50-$13.50 per cwt, down 20 cents on both the high and low ends of the range from the previous forecast and higher than the revised $10.40 a year earlier.
In late October, USDA reported a long-grain monthly average cash price for September of $11.20 per cwt, up 60 cents from August and the highest since March 2016 and the fifth consecutive month of an increase. The California September medium- and short-grain cash price was reported at $13.90 per cwt, down 30 cents from August. The September southern medium- and short-grain price was reported at $11.20 per cwt, up 20 cents from August and the highest since February 2016. The September U.S. medium- and short-grain price was reported at $13.10 per cwt, down 70 cents from August. The all-rice September price was reported at $11.60 per cwt, up 50 cents from August and the highest since August 2016. ∆
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