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USDA Raises Rice Production Forecast For Four African Countries
Global rice production in 2017/18 is forecast at 483.8 million tons (milled basis), up 0.4 million tons from the previous forecast but 3.3 million tons below the 2016/17 record. At a record 161.86 million hectares, global harvested area in 2017/18 is up 1.1 million hectares from a year earlier.
This month, USDA raised its 2017/18 crop forecasts for four countries, all in Africa. The largest upward revision was for Nigeria, the largest rice-producing country in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa, Ghana’s 2017/18 rice production forecast was raised 129,000 tons to 519,000 tons due to larger area. Production is unchanged from the year-earlier record.
These 2017/18 upward crop revisions were partially offset by seven crop reductions – three in Asia and four in the Western Hemisphere. First, in Asia, Bangladesh’s 2017/18 rice production forecast was lowered 0.5 million tons to 33.0 million tons based on a 0.2-million reduction in harvested area to 11.3 million hectares.
Second, Afghanistan’s 2017/18 production forecast was lowered 78,000 tons to 325,000 tons largely based on data from FAO. Both area and yield forecasts were lowered for Afghanistan.
Three 2017/18 crop reductions were in South America. First, Brazil’s 2017/18 production forecast was lowered 180,000 tons to 7.8 million tons based on a 0.1-million-hectare reduction in the area estimate to 2.0 million hectares recommended by the U.S. Agricultural Office in Brasilia. Second, Guyana’s 2017/18 crop forecast was lowered 22,000 tons to 570,000 tons based on data from the Guyana Rice Association indicating a larger-than-expected first crop but a smaller-than-expected second crop that was adversely impacted by high winds.
Third, Venezuela’s 2017/18 rice production forecast was lowered 0.2 million tons to 290,000 tons due to smaller area.
The 2016/17 global rice production estimate was raised 0.7 million tons to 487.1 million tons, up 14.6 million tons from a year earlier and the largest crop on record.
Outside Asia, Australia’s 2016/17 rice crop was lowered 15,000 tons to 586,000 tons based on a lower yield reported by the government.
China Revisions Boost Global Ending Stocks Forecast 15 Percent to 141.5 Million Tons
Global rice consumption in 2017/18 is projected at 480.5 million tons, up 0.3 million tons from the previous forecast but 0.5 million tons below the year-earlier record. This month, 2017/18 consumption forecasts were raised for Nigeria, Egypt, and Mozambique but lowered for China, Bangladesh, Burma, North Korea, and Sri Lanka. Nigeria’s 2017/18 consumption forecast was raised 1.3 million tons to a record 6.2 million tons due to a much larger crop. In contrast, China’s 2017/18 consumption forecast was lowered 650,000 tons to 142.35 million tons based on a revision to annual consumption starting in 2010/11 that lowered estimates each year, resulting in a small decline in per capita use over the 7-year period.
With rice production exceeding consumption in 2017/18, ending stocks are projected to increase 3 percent to 141.5 million tons, up 18.0 million tons from the previous forecast and the highest since 2000/01.
Weaker Crop Boosts Bangladesh’s 2018 Import Forecast to 1.2 Million Tons
Global rice trade for 2018 is projected at a near-record 44.4 million tons, nearly unchanged from the previous forecast and just 0.14 million tons below the year-earlier record.
Global rice trade in 2017 is projected at 44.6 million tons, virtually unchanged from a month earlier but 11 percent larger than a year earlier.
Thailand’s Price Quotes Drop Slightly, U.S. Price Quotes Continue to Increase
Prices for most grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice declined slightly over the past month, as buyers are waiting for the harvest of the main 2017/18 rice crop to start. Prices for Thailand’s 100-percent Grade B milled white rice were quoted at $406 per ton for the week ending October 9, down $4 from the week ending September 12. Prices for Thailand’s parboiled 5-percent brokens – a specialty rice – were quoted at $410 per ton for the week ending October 9, down $3 from the week ending September 12. Thailand’s premium jasmine rice (also a specialty rice) was quoted at $925 per ton for the week ending October 9, up 11.5 percent from the week ending September 12. All price quotes for Thailand’s rice are from the Weekly Rice Price Update reported by the U.S. Agricultural Office in Bangkok.
Price quotes for Vietnam’s high-quality 5-percent-broken kernels were reported at $387 per ton for the week ending October 10, down $8 from the week ending September 13. Lack of new demand and strong competition from other sellers in the region are behind the price drop. Vietnam’s prices are currently just $4-$5 below prices for similar qualities of Thailand’s rice. Vietnam’s rice typically sells at prices $20-$40 per ton below prices for comparable grades of Thailand’s rice.
In contrast, U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice rose over the past month, likely a response to expected tighter U.S. supplies in 2017/18. For the week ending October 10, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free on board (fob) vessel, U.S. Gulfport) were quoted at $560 per ton, up $10 from the week ending September 13 and the highest since November 2015. The U.S. price difference over Thailand’s 100-percent Grade B milled rice was $154 per ton, up from $140 for the week ending September 13 and the highest since December 2015. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) were quoted at $316 per ton for the week ending October 9, up $11 from the week ending September 13 and the highest since October 2015.
Price quotes for California medium-grain milled rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, sacked, free on board, domestic mill) also increased over the past month. For the week ending October 10 prices were quoted at $795 per ton, up $45 from the week ending September 13 and the highest since December 2015. Export prices for California medium-grain milled-rice (4-percent brokens, sacked, on board vessel in Oakland) were quoted at $845 per ton for the week ending October 10, up $25 from the week ending September 13. ∆
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