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Rice Yield Forecasts Lowered For CA, MO & Texas
There were only minor revisions to the 2017/18 U.S. rice balance sheet this month, a result of a slight reduction in the crop forecast. The 2017/18 crop forecast was lowered 1.1 million cwt to 178.6 million cwt based on fractionally smaller harvested area and yield estimates reported by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). The 2017/18 rice crop is 20 percent smaller than a year earlier and is the smallest since 1996/97.
At 2.39 million acres, U.S. harvested area in 2017/18 is just 4,000 acres below the previous forecast and 23 percent smaller than a year earlier. Harvested rice area in 2017/18 is the smallest since 1987/88. The average yield of 7,469 pounds per acre is 35 pounds below the previous forecast but 3 percent above a year earlier.
The only area revision this month was a 4,000-acre reduction in the Texas estimate to 167,000 acres. Yield forecasts were lowered this month for California, Missouri, and Texas but raised slightly for Arkansas. These revisions resulted in crop forecast reductions of 5 percent for Texas, 2 percent for California, 1 percent for Missouri, and 1 percent for Arkansas.
In 2017/18, U.S. rice harvested area declined 706,000 acres from 2016/17, with area smaller in all six reported States.
Production in 2017/18 is projected to be smaller than a year earlier in every reported State, with Arkansas accounting for 55 percent of the U.S. crop reduction. At 80.3 million cwt, the Arkansas 2017/18 rice crop is 24 percent smaller than a year earlier and the smallest since 2011/12.
For the week ending October, 85 percent of the U.S. rice crop was reported harvested, 3 percentage points behind last year’s pace but ahead of the U.S. 5-year average of 80 percent. Harvesting was complete on the Gulf Coast.
U.S. Rice Supplies in 2017/18 Projected To Be the Smallest Since 2003/04
Total U.S. rice supplies in 2017/18 are projected at 248.8 million cwt, down 1.1 million cwt from the previous forecast and 15 percent below a year earlier. These are the smallest U.S. supplies since 2003/04.
At 46.0 million cwt, the 2017/18 U.S. all-rice beginning stocks estimate is 1 percent below a year earlier. Long-grain beginning stocks remain estimated at 31.0 million cwt, 37 percent above a year earlier and the highest since 2011/12. Combined medium- and short-grain beginning stocks remain estimated at 11.5 million cwt, 45 percent below a year earlier. U.S. imports in 2017/18 remain forecast at 24.2 million cwt, 3 percent larger than a year earlier. Long-grain imports remain projected at 21.0 million cwt, up almost 4 percent from a year earlier. Medium- and short-grain imports remain projected at 3.2 million cwt, nearly unchanged from a year earlier.
Both U.S. Exports and Domestic and Residual Use Are Projected Smaller in 2017/18
Total use of U.S. rice in 2017/18 remains projected at 221.0 million cwt, 11 percent below a year earlier. At 115.0 million cwt, the total domestic and residual use forecast for 2017/18 is 12.5 percent smaller than a year earlier. Long-grain domestic and residual use remains projected at 88.0 million cwt, 12 percent below 2016/17. Medium- and short-grain domestic use remains projected at 27.0 million cwt, 15 percent below a year earlier and the lowest since 1988/89.
Total U.S. rice exports in 2017/18 remain projected at 106.0 million cwt, 9 percent below a year earlier.
By class, long-grain exports remain projected at 75.0 million cwt, down 5 percent from a year earlier. U.S. medium- and short-grain exports remain projected at 31.0 million cwt, 18 percent below the year-earlier near-record of 37.9 million cwt. Northeast Asia, primarily Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, is again expected to be the largest market for U.S. medium- and short-grain rice, accounting for the bulk of U.S. exports in 2017/18. These purchases are all made as part of World Trade Organization (WTO) agreements. North Africa and the Middle East account for most of the remaining U.S. medium- and short-grain exports.
U.S. all-rice 2017/18 ending stocks are projected at 27.8 million cwt, down 1.1 million cwt from the previous forecast and almost 40 percent below a year earlier and the smallest since 2003/04. The ending stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 12.6 percent, down from 18.6 percent a year earlier and the lowest since 2003/04. Long-grain ending stocks are forecast at 15.3 million cwt, down 0.8 million cwt from the previous forecast and 51 percent below a year earlier. The long-grain stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 9.4 percent, down from 17.4 percent a year earlier and the lowest since 2003/04. Medium- and short-grain ending stocks are forecast at 9.0 million cwt, down 0.3 million cwt from the previous forecast and 22 percent below a year earlier. These are the smallest medium- and short-grain stocks since 2008/09. The medium- and short-grain stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 15.5 percent, down from 16.5 percent in 2016/17.
U.S. Season-Average Farm Prices Expected To Be Higher for Both Rice Classes in 2017/18
The forecasts for the U.S. season-average farm prices (SAFP) for 2017/18 for both classes and in both regions are unchanged this month. The 2017/18 U.S. long-grain season-average farm price remains projected at $12.00-$13.00 per cwt, well above $9.62 in 2016/17. The California medium- and short-grain 2017/18 SAFP remains forecast at $15.50-$16.50, up from $13.60 in 2016/17. The Southern medium- and short-grain 2017/18 SAFP remains forecast at $12.20-$13.20 per cwt, up from $10.20 in 2016/17. The 2017/18 U.S. medium- and short-grain SAFP remains forecast at $14.70-$15.70 per cwt, well above $12.80 in 2016/17. The 2017/18 all-rice SAFP is projected at $12.70-$13.70 per cwt, up 50 cents on both the high and low ends of the range from the previous forecast and higher than $10.30 a year earlier.
In September, USDA reported a long-grain monthly average cash price for August of $10.60 per cwt, up 61 cents from July and the highest since September and the third consecutive month of an increase. The California July medium- and short-grain cash price was reported at $14.00 per cwt, up 10 cents from June and the highest since August 2016. The August southern medium- and short-grain price was reported at $11.00 per cwt, up 30 cents from July and the highest since February 2016. The July U.S. medium- and short-grain price was reported at $13.80 per cwt, up 50 cents from July. The all-rice July price was reported at $11.10 per cwt, up 40 cents from July and the highest since August 2016. ∆
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