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India, Burma Rice Crops Predicted Higher This Year
Global rice production in 2017/18 is forecast at 483.4 million tons (milled basis), up 0.8 million tons from the previous forecast but 3.0 million tons below the 2016/17 record. At a record 161.4 million hectares, global harvested area in 2017/18 is up 1.3 million hectares from a year earlier. The average global yield of 4.47 tons per hectare is down from the year-earlier record of 4.53 tons, mostly due to expanded area by India, a low-yielding large producer. Global production forecast by country for 2017/18 are shown in Map 3 and year-to-year changes are shown in Map 4.
There were nine country-specific production revisions for 2017/18 this month, several involving major rice producing countries. Five revisions were reductions, with two in Asia and two in South America.
These upward production revisions were partly offset by four reductions.
The 2016/17 global rice production estimate was raised 2.5 million tons to a record 486.4 million tons, up 14.6 million tons from the year-earlier El Nino-impacted global crop. There were seven production revisions this month, five increases and two reductions, with all revisions in Asia or Latin America. On the upside, India’s 2016/17 rice production was raised 2.15 million tons to a record 110.15 million tons based on data from the Government of India’s Fourth Advanced Estimate released in August. At a record 96.39 million tons, the kharif crop was up 5.4 percent from a year earlier. The kharif crop typically accounts for 85 percent of India’s annual rice production and is mostly rainfed, relying on rain from the Southwest Monsoon. The 2016/17 monsoon was rated normal. Second, the Philippines’ 2016/17 rice production was increased 186,000 tons to 11.69 million tons based on larger January to June 2017 area reported by the Government of the Philippines. At 4.72 million hectares, rice area in the Philippines in 2016/17 was the second-highest on record. Third, Burma’s 2016/17 crop estimate was raised 100,000 tons to 12.5 million tons due to a slightly higher yield. Fourth, Brazil’s 2016/17 production estimate was raised 6,000 tons to 8.38 million based on Government data released in early in August. Brazil’s 2016/17 production was up 16 percent from the 2015/16 crop that was reduced by excessive rain and low price expectations. Finally, Peru’s 2016/17 production was increased 125,000 tons to 2.33 million tons due to a higher area estimate reported by the Government of Peru. The yield of 7.95 tons per hectare is the highest on record.
These upward revisions were partially offset by two reductions, both in Latin America. First, Cuba’s 2016/17 production estimate was lowered 98,000 tons to 335,000 tons based on Government data reporting much lower area. Production is down 8 percent from a year earlier, with both area and yield lower. Cuba’s 2015/16 rice area and production estimates were also lowered this month based on Government data.
Global consumption in 2017/18 is projected at 480.2 million tons, up 1.1 million tons from the previous forecast but 2.3 million tons below the year-earlier record.
With production exceeding consumption in 2017/18, ending stocks are projected to increase 3 percent to 123.5 million tons, up 0.6 million tons from the previous forecast and the highest since 2001/02. In contrast, 2017/18 ending stocks forecasts were lowered this month for Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Thailand, and the United States. On a year-to-year basis, China accounts for most of the increase in global ending stocks. The global stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 25.7 percent, up from 24.9 percent a year earlier.
Larger Supplies Boost India’s and Burma’s Export Forecasts; U.S.
Export Forecasts Lowered
Global trade for 2018 is projected at a near-record 44.4 million tons, up 0.5 million tons from the previous forecast and just 0.1 million tons below the year-earlier revised record. In 2018, increased shipments from Australia, Brazil, China, India, and Pakistan are projected to more than offset smaller shipments from Argentina, Burma, Thailand, and the United States. Among importers, larger purchases by Cote d’Ivoire, Cuba, Guinea, Iraq, Madagascar, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and the United Arab Emirates are projected to more than offset reduced imports by Egypt, Iran, Laos, Niger, and Sri Lanka.
The 2017 global rice trade forecast was raised 1.3 million tons to 44.5 million tons, 11 percent larger than a year earlier and the highest on record.
Thailand’s Price Quotes Show Little Change, U.S. Price Quotes Continue to Increase
Prices for most grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice have changed little over the past month, as impacts from resumption of Government sales of stocks have offset recent inquiries from buyers. Prices for Thailand’s 100-percent Grade B milled white rice were quoted at $410 per ton for the week ending September 11, unchanged from the week ending August 7. Prices for Thailand’s parboiled 5-percent brokens – a specialty rice – were quoted at $413 per ton for the week ending September 11, up $4 from the week ending August 7. Thailand’s premium jasmine rice (also a specialty rice) was quoted at $1,045 per ton for the week ending September 11, up 27 percent from the week ending August 7 and the highest since October 2014.
Price quotes for Vietnam’s high-quality 5-percent-broken kernels were reported at $395 per ton for the week ending September 12, down $5 from the week ending August 8. Despite recent and expected further large purchases from Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, global prices are not being pressured upward, instead making small moves sideways. Vietnam’s and Thailand’s prices are currently about the same, an uncommon relationship. Vietnam’s rice typically sells at prices $20-$40 per ton below prices for comparable grades of Thailand’s rice.
In contrast, U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice rose over the past month, likely a response to expected tighter U.S. supplies in 2017/18. For the week ending September 12, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free on board (fob) vessel, U.S. Gulfport) were quoted at $550 per ton, up $5 from the week ending August 8 and the highest since November 2015. The U.S. price difference over Thailand’s 100-percent Grade B milled rice was $146 per ton, up from $11 for the week ending August 8 and the highest since December 2015. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) were quoted at $305 per ton for the week ending September 12, up $10 from the week ending August 8 and the highest since December 2015.
Price quotes for California medium-grain milled rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, sacked, free on board, domestic mill) also increased over the past month. For the week ending September 12, prices were quoted at $750 per ton, up $25 from early August. ∆
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