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Global Rice Production In 2017/18 Projected Slightly Below A Year Earlier
Global rice production in 2017/18 is forecast at 481.3 million tons (milled basis), fractionally below the year-earlier record but 2 percent larger than the 2015/16 crop.
East Asia is projected to remain the largest rice producing region, harvesting a forecast 159.2 million tons in 2017/18, down just 0.3 million tons from a year earlier. China remains the largest rice producing country in the world, producing a projected 145.0 million tons in 2017/18, up just 0.15 million tons from 2016/17, a result of a slight area increase.
South Asia is projected to produce 154.6 million tons of rice in 2017/18, up 0.7 million from a year earlier. India’s production is projected at 106.0 million tons, down just 0.5 million from the year-earlier near-record crop based on a slightly lower yield.
The 2016/17 global production forecast was raised 0.4 million tons to 481.5 million tons, up 2 percent from a year earlier. Cambodia’s 2016/17 production forecast was raised 250,000 tons to 4.95 million due to a higher area estimate reported by the Government. Egypt’s 2016/17 production estimate was raised 246,000 tons to a record 4.8 million based on a 100,000-hectare increase in harvested area to 850,000 hectares, a record. These revisions for Egypt are based on information from the U.S. Agricultural Office in Cairo. In contrast, Cote d’Ivoire’s 2016/17 production forecast was lowered 615,000 tons to 1.34 million tons due to a 467,000-ton harvested area reduction to 1.0 million hectares. Cote d’Ivoire’s historic area, yield, and production series were revised this month. Remaining production revisions were small this month, mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Global consumption (including post-harvest losses) in 2017/18 is projected at a record 480.1 million tons, up 1.4 million tons from 2016/17. India and Thailand account for most of the expected increase. In contrast, consumption is expected to be smaller in 2017/18 in China, Nigeria, and the United States. Global ending rice stocks in 2017/18 are projected at 119.8 million tons, up 1.2 million tons from 2016/17 and the largest since 2001/02. China accounts for most of the expected increase in global ending stocks in 2017/18. Stocks are projected smaller in India, Thailand, and the United States. The global stocks-to-use ratio for 2017/18 is projected at 24.9 percent, nearly unchanged from a year ago.
Global Trade Is Projected To Increase in 2018
Global trade for 2018 is projected at 42.3 million tons, up more than 2 percent from a year earlier but below the 2014 record of 44.1 million tons. India and Thailand are projected to remain the largest exporters, followed again by Vietnam, Pakistan, and United States. China, Nigeria, the EU, the Philippines, Cote d’Ivoire, and Saudi Arabia are projected to be the largest importers.
Thailand’s 2018 exports are projected at 10.0 million tons, unchanged from a year earlier but below the 2014 record of nearly 11.0 million tons. India’s 2018 export forecast of 10.0 million tons is also unchanged from 2017. India’s exports remain 1.6 million tons below the 2014 record. Vietnam’s 2018 exports are projected at 6.0 million tons, up 7 percent from 2017, with the increase based on more competitive prices. Pakistan is projected to export 4.1 million tons of rice in 2018, up 0.1 million from a year earlier, a result of a slightly larger crop. The United States is projected to export 3.5 million tons of rice in 2018, down 50,000 tons from 2017, mostly due to tighter supplies and slightly higher prices. These top-five exporters typically account for about 80 percent of global rice exports.
Price Quotes Increased for Thailand, Vietnam, and the United States
Prices for most grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice have increased around 5 percent over the past month, mostly due to inquiries from buyers for both regular milled white rice and fragrant rice. Prices for Thailand’s 100-percent Grade B milled white rice were quoted at $402 per ton for the week ending May 8, up $20 from the week ending April 10. These are the highest prices since mid-August 2016. Prices for Thailand’s parboiled 5-percent brokens – a specialty rice – were quoted at $394 per ton for the week ending May 8, up $22 from the week ending April 10. Thailand’s premium jasmine rice (also a specialty rice) was quoted at $641 per ton for the week ending May 8, up $56 from the week ending April 10. All price quotes for Thailand’s rice are from the Weekly Rice Price Update reported by the U.S. Agricultural Office in Bangkok.
Price quotes for Vietnam’s high-quality 5-percent-broken kernels were $352 per ton for the week ending May 9, up $4 from the week ending April 11, with new sales light. For the week ending April 11, Vietnam’s prices were $33 below price quotes for similar grades of Thailand’s rice, up from $22 a month earlier. Vietnam’s rice typically sells at prices $20-$40 per ton below prices for comparable grades of Thailand’s rice.
U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice rose over the past month as well, likely a response to the severe flooding in the Mid-South, especially in Arkansas, the largest rice growing State. Sales outside core markets – such as Canada, Haiti, and Saudi Arabia – remain very weak. For the week ending May 9, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free on board (fob) vessel, U.S. Gulfport) were quoted at $475 per ton, up $10 from the week ending April 11. The U.S. price difference over Thailand’s 100-percent Grade B milled rice was $73 per ton, down from $83 a month earlier. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) were quoted at $240 per ton for the week ending May 9, down $5 from the week ending April 11. In contrast to long-grain milled rice exports, U.S. rough-rice exports have been very strong this year.
Price quotes for California medium-grain milled rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, sacked, free on board, domestic mill) have increased slightly over the past month. For the week ending May 9, prices were quoted at $595 per ton, up $5 from the week ending April 11. Export prices for California medium-grain milled-rice (4-percent brokens, sacked, on board vessel in Oakland) remain quoted at $650 per ton for the week ending May 10, unchanged since early April. ∆
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