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Rice Acreage Expansion Expected In South
The March Prospective Plantings report indicated U.S. 2016/17 total rice area at 3.06 million acres, up 17 percent from a year earlier and the highest since 3.6 million acres were planted in 2010/11. The intended area is up 265,000 acres from the February Agricultural Outlook Forum projection and was above industry and USDA expectations in late March.
Long-grain – grown almost exclusively in the South – accounts for all of the intended area expansion.
Producers intend to expand rice acreage in all reported States in 2016/17, with the South accounting for almost all of the expansion.
Progress of 2016/17 U.S. Rice Crop Ahead of Normal
Through April 10, the pace of planting the 2016/17 U.S. rice crop was ahead of both last year and the U.S. 5-year average. At 32-percent planted, the planting pace of the 2016/17 U.S. crop was 9 percentage points ahead of a year earlier and 6 percentage points ahead of the U.S. 5-year average.
Emergence was slightly ahead of normal in the South. Through April 10, 12 percent of the U.S. rice crop had emerged, 5 percentage points ahead of a year earlier and 3 percentage points ahead of the U.S. 5-year average. In Louisiana, 47 percent of the 2016/17 rice crop was reported emerged by April 10, 17 percentage points ahead of a year earlier and 15 percentage points ahead of the State’s 5-year average. The Texas rice crop was reported 44 percent emerged by April 10, well ahead of 11 percent a year earlier and 12 percentage ahead of the State’s average. Emergence was much slower in the remaining producing States. In Arkansas, 3 percent of the 2016/17 crop had emerged by April 10, nearly the same as a year earlier and the State’s 5-year average. Mississippi’s crop was also reported 3-percent emerged by April 10, unchanged from a year earlier but 2 percentage points behind the State’s 5-year average. Rice crops in the remaining States had not emerged by April 10.
U.S. 2015/16 Import Forecast Lowered to 23.5 Million Cwt
The only U.S. supply side revision this month was a 0.5-million cwt drop in the 2015/16 U.S. import forecast to 23.5 million cwt, 5 percent below the year-earlier.
Long-grain accounted for all of this month’s downward revision in U.S. rice imports. At 20.0 million cwt, U.S. long-grain rice imports are 0.5 million cwt below the previous forecast and 5 percent below the year-earlier record.
Total production remains estimated at 192.3 million cwt, 29.9 million cwt below a year earlier, a result of both smaller plantings and a weaker yield. Long-grain production declined 18 percent to 133.0 million cwt, mostly due to the smaller area.
The all-rice carryin remains estimated at 48.5 million cwt, 52 percent above a year earlier. At 26.5 million cwt, the long-grain carryin was 63 percent above a year earlier and the highest since 2011/12.
Total U.S. rice supplies are projected at 264.4 million cwt, down 0.5 million from the previous forecast and 5 percent below a year earlier.
The March 1, 2016, U.S. rice stocks were reported at 116.6 million cwt (combined rough- and milled-rice stocks on a rough-rice basis), 3.5 percent below a year earlier, mostly due to the smaller crop. The reported stocks were slightly higher than expected by both industry and USDA.
Little Change in U.S. Rice Exports Projected for 2015/16
There were no revisions on the 2015/16 use side this month. Total use of U.S. rice in 2015/16 remains projected at 221.0 million cwt, 4 percent below a year earlier, with domestic and residual use accounting for almost all of the decline.
At 121.0 million cwt, total domestic and residual use is 7 percent below a year earlier, with the decline mostly due to a smaller residual, which includes post-harvest losses. Long-grain domestic and residual use remains projected at 88.0 million cwt, 14 percent below a year earlier and the smallest since 2011/12.
Total U.S. rice exports in 2015/16 remain projected at 100.0 million cwt, nearly unchanged from a year earlier.
The 2015/16 U.S. rough-rice exports remain forecast at 33.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from a year earlier.
Data from U.S. Export Sales through March 31 indicate total U.S. commercial sales and shipments of all rice of 2.71 million tons, 4 percent behind a year earlier. Shipments were reported at 2.18 million tons, 10 percent ahead of a year earlier.
Through March 31, combined commercial shipments and sales of U.S. long-grain rough rice were reported at 1.07 million tons, nearly unchanged from a year earlier.
U.S. commercial shipments and outstanding sales of medium- and short-grain rough-rice through March 31 were reported at 64,200 tons, 66 percent behind a year earlier and unchanged since mid-February.
Through March 31, U.S. commercial exports and outstanding sales of U.S. long-grain milled-rice were reported at 738,000 tons, 14 percent below a year earlier.
Sales and commercial shipments of U.S. medium- and short-grain milled rice through March 31 were reported at 694,200 tons, 11 percent ahead of a year earlier. Outstanding sales through March 31 were reported at 238,700 tons, 20 percent behind a year earlier. Commercial exports of medium- and short-grain milled rice were reported at 455,500 tons, 40 percent ahead of the year-earlier pace.
The U.S. ending stocks forecast was lowered 0.5 million cwt to 43.4 million cwt, 11 percent smaller than a year earlier. The 2015/16 stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 19.6 percent, slightly below 21.1 percent a year earlier.
Combined medium- and short-grain ending stocks remain forecast at 19.0 million tons, 6 percent below a year earlier. The combined medium- and short-grain stocks-to-use ratio remains estimated at 29.6 percent, well below the abnormally high 35.6 percent a year earlier.
U.S. 2015/16 Season-Average Price Forecasts Lowered for Both Classes of Rice
The 2015/16 all-rice U.S. season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $12.30- $12.70 per cwt, down 10 cents on the low end and down 50 cents on the high end from last month’s forecast. The 2015/16 all-rice SAFP is below the $13.40 reported a year earlier and the second consecutive year of a decline. The U.S. long-grain 2015/16 SAFP price is forecast at $10.80-$11.20 per cwt, down 20 cents on the low end and down 40 cents on the high end from last month’s forecast.
The U.S. combined medium- and short-grain SAFP was lowered 30 cents on the low end and 50 cents on the high end from last month’s forecast to $15.70-$16.30 per cwt, well below $18.30 a year earlier.
In late March, NASS reported a February long-grain rough rice cash price of $11.50 per cwt, unchanged from a month earlier and little changed since October. For U.S. medium- and short-grain rice, the February price was reported at $15.00 per cwt, down $1.90 cents from January and the lowest since July 2008. ∆
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