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Average Rice Yield 2015-16 Highest Recorded
The 2015/16 global production forecast was raised 1.6 million tons to 417.1 million tons, almost 2 percent below a year earlier and the smallest in 4 years. The year-to-year decline in global production is primarily due to smaller area.
The average yield of 4.45 tons per hectare is up fractionally from a year earlier and the highest on record. Record or near-record yields in China, India, and Indonesia are behind the 2015/16 robust global yield. However, yield growth since 2012/13 has been negligible.
There was only one significant upward production revision this month. First, India’s 2015/16 production forecast was raised 3.0 million tons to 103.0 million based on a higher yield from the irrigated kharif crop areas, mostly in north and north-central India. The Government of India’s Second Advance Estimate, which was released last month, indicated a 2015/16 kharif crop of 90.6 million tons, down less than 1 percent from a year earlier.
There were several downward production revisions for 2015/16. First, Indonesia’s 2015/16 production forecast was lowered 1.0 million tons to 35.3 million tons due to a 0.5-million hectare reduction in area to 11.66 million hectares.
Second, Peru’s 2015/16 production forecast was decreased 7 percent to 2.0 million tons, still 3.5 percent above a year earlier. The reduction was the result of a 50,000-hectare reduction in area to 350,000 hectares.
The 2014/15 global production estimate was raised 0.6 million tons to 478.8 million tons, fractionally above a year earlier.
Import Forecast for 2016 Raised for China and Indonesia
The 2016 global trade forecast was raised 0.1 million tons to 41.7 million, 2 percent below a year earlier. The global export decline in 2016 is based on weaker shipments from Australia, India (down 2.4 million tons), Cambodia, and the United States not being fully offset by expanded shipments from Egypt, Pakistan, Thailand, and Uruguay. On the import side, weaker purchases by China, Cote d’Ivoire, the EU, Nigeria, and Sri Lanka are not expected to be fully offset by larger purchases by Brazil, Indonesia, Iran, and the Philippines.
There were three 2016 export revisions this month. First, Cambodia’s 2016 exports were raised 0.1 million tons to 900,000 tons based on larger expected sales to China. Second, India’s 2016 imports were raised 0.1 million tons to 8.6 million tons, 22 percent below the year-earlier record. India is projected to be the second largest rice exporter in 2016. These two upward revisions were partially offset by a 0.1-million-ton reduction in China’s 2016 rice exports to 350,000 tons based on a recent slowdown in shipment pace. South Korea is the top market for China’s rice exports.
There were several country-specific revisions on the 2016 import side. First, China’s 2016 import forecast was raised 0.3 million tons to 5.0 million tons, down 3 percent from the year-earlier record. Second, Indonesia’s 2016 import forecast was raised 0.1 million tons to 2.0 million tons based on a smaller crop.
The 2015 global trade forecast was raised fractionally to 42.6 million tons, 2 percent below the year-earlier record. The largest export revision was a 169,000-ton increase in India’s 2015 exports to a record 10.97 million tons. Export estimates were lowered slightly for Argentina, Burma, China, Cote d’Ivoire, and the European Union. On the import side, China’s 2015 import estimate was raised 0.65 million tons to a record 5.15 million tons based on the inclusion of imports from Cambodia, Laos, and Pakistan.
The 2015/16 global consumption (including a residual component) forecast was raised 0.55 million tons to 484.2 million tons, up 1.6 million tons from a year earlier and the highest on record.
With consumption expected to exceed production for the third consecutive year, global ending stocks are projected to decline 13 percent to 90.5 million tons, up 1 percent from the previous forecast.
U.S. and Thailand’s Prices Declined Over the Past Month, While Vietnam’s Rose
Prices for most grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice have declined around 2 percent over the past month, mostly due to a lack of major new sales. Prices for Thailand’s 100-percent Grade B milled white rice were quoted at $375 per ton for the week ending March 7, down $10 from the week of February 8. Prices for Thailand’s 5-percent brokens were quoted at $367 per ton for the week ending March 7, down $8 from the week ending February 8. Prices for Thailand’s parboiled 5-percent brokens – a specialty rice – were quoted at $368 per ton, down $7 from a month earlier.
Thailand’s premium jasmine rice was quoted at $688 per ton for the week ending March 7, down $40 from the week ending February 8. There have been no price quotes for Thailand’s 100-percent brokens since September 2015.
In contrast, price quotes from Vietnam have increased about 4 percent from a month earlier, partly due to concerns over possible crop losses to its main winter-spring crop caused by drought. For the week ending March 9, prices for Vietnam’s double-water-polished milled-rice with 5-percent broken kernels were quoted at $370 per ton, up $15 from the week ending February 8. Vietnam’s prices are $3 above price quotes for similar grades of Thailand’s rice for the week ending March 9. Vietnam’s rice typically sells at prices $20-$40 per ton below prices for comparable grades of Thailand’s rice.
U.S. prices for long-grain milled-rice declined over the past month, partly a response to a lack of new sales outside core markets like Haiti. For the week ending March 9, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free on board (fob) vessel, U.S. Gulfport) were quoted at $500 per ton, down $15 from the week ending February 9. The U.S. price difference over Thailand’s 100-percent Grade B milled rice was $125 per ton, down $7 from a month earlier and well below the record of more than $200 in October and November. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) were quoted at $265 per ton for the week ending March 9, down $10 from the week ending February 9.
Price quotes for package-quality California medium-grain milled-rice (bulk) for domestic sales to processors and repackagers have also declined from a month earlier. For the week ending March 9, prices were quoted at $739 per ton, down $11 from the week ending February 9. ∆
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