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Weak Imports, Small Crop Dip Into Supplies
There were no supply side revisions this month. A 13-percent drop in production and slightly smaller imports are projected to more than offset a 52-percent increase in beginning stocks, pulling total supplies down 5 percent from a year earlier to 264.9 million cwt.
Total production remains estimated at 192.3 million cwt, 29.9 million cwt below a year earlier, a result of both smaller plantings and a weaker yield. At 2.614 million acres, 2015/16 plantings were 11.5 percent below a year earlier.
Total U.S. rice imports are projected to decline for a second consecutive year, dropping 3 percent to 24.0 million cwt.
The all-rice carryin remains estimated at 48.5 million cwt, 52 percent above a year earlier. At 26.5 million cwt, the long-grain carryin was 63 percent above a year earlier and the highest since 2011/12. The medium- and short-grain carryin remains estimated at 20.2 million cwt, 51 percent above a year earlier and the highest since 1987/88. Stocks of brokens are included in the total stocks estimate but are not specified by class.
U.S. 2015/16 Export Forecast Lowered 2.0 Million Cwt to 100.0 Million Cwt
Total use of U.S. rice in 2015/16 is projected at 221.0 million cwt, down 1 percent from the previous forecast and 4 percent below a year earlier. This month’s downward revision was due to a reduced medium- and short-grain export forecast.
At 121.0 million cwt, total domestic and residual use is 7 percent below a year earlier, with the decline mostly due to a smaller residual – which includes post-harvest losses. Long-grain domestic and residual use remains projected at 88.0 million cwt, 14 percent below a year earlier and the smallest since 2011/12.
Total U.S. rice exports in 2015/16, are projected at 100.0 million cwt, 2.0 million below the previous forecast, but nearly unchanged from a year earlier.
Combined medium- and short-grain exports are projected at 31.0 million cwt, down 2.0 million cwt from the previous forecast but 5 percent larger than a year earlier. Shipment data from both the U.S. Census Bureau and the Foreign Agricultural Service’s weekly U.S. Export Sales indicate a slower than expected pace of sales of medium- and short-grain rough-rice to the Middle East, with Turkey accounting for nearly all of the weaker pace. The South has been the primary supplier of U.S. rice to this market in recent years. Northeast Asia – primarily Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan – remains the dominant market for U.S. medium- and short-grain rice, with California supplying almost all U.S. sales. These purchases are all the result of WTO commitments.
The 2015/16 U.S. rough-rice export forecast was lowered 2.0 million cwt to 33.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from a year earlier.
Data from U.S. Export Sales through February 25 indicate total U.S. commercial sales and shipments of all rice of 2.39 million tons, 2 percent behind a year earlier. Shipments were reported at 1.84 million tons, almost 10 percent ahead of a year earlier.
Through February 25, combined commercial shipments and sales of U.S. long-grain rough-rice were reported at 983,500 tons, 6 percent ahead of a year earlier.
U.S. commercial shipments and outstanding sales of medium- and short-grain rough-rice through February 25 were reported at 64,200 tons, 66 percent behind a year earlier.
Exports of medium- and short-grain rough-rice were reported at 58,700 tons, 41 percent behind a year earlier. Outstanding sales were reported at just 5,500 tons, 94 percent behind the year-earlier pace. Turkey is responsible for nearly all of this year’s much slower pace of sales and shipments of medium- and short-grain rough-rice exports.
Through February 25, U.S. commercial exports and outstanding sales of U.S. long-grain milled-rice were reported at 629,400 tons, 14 percent below a year earlier.
Sales and commercial shipments of U.S. medium- and short-grain milled rice through February 25 were reported at 614,900 tons, 12 percent ahead of a year earlier. Outstanding sales through February 25 were reported at 230,800 tons, 16 percent behind a year earlier. Commercial exports of medium- and short-grain milled rice were reported at 384,100 tons, 41 percent ahead of the year-earlier pace.
The U.S. ending stocks forecast was raised 2.0 million cwt to 43.9 million cwt, 10 percent smaller than a year earlier. The 2015/16 stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 19.9 percent, slightly below 21.1 percent a year earlier. The long-grain ending stocks forecast remains at 23.0 million cwt, down 13 percent from a year earlier. The long-grain stocks-to-use ratio of 14.6 percent is slightly below 15.2 percent a year earlier. The combined medium- and short-grain ending stocks forecast was raised 2.0 million cwt to 19.0 million tons, 6 percent below a year earlier. The combined medium- and short-grain stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 29.6 percent, well below the year-earlier abnormally high 35.6 percent.
U.S. 2015/16 Medium- and Short-Grain Season-Average Farm Price Forecast Lowered
The 2015/16 all rice U.S. season-average farm price is projected at $12.40-$13.20 per cwt, down 10 cents on both the high and low end of the range from last month’s forecast. The 2015/16 all-rice SAFP is below the $13.40 reported a year earlier and the second consecutive year of a decline. The U.S. long-grain 2015/16 season-average farm-price (SAFP) price remains forecast at $11.00-$11.60 per cwt, down slightly from $11.90 a year earlier.
The U.S. combined medium- and short-grain SAFP was lowered 10 cents on both the high and low ends to $16.00-$16.80 per cwt, well below $18.30 a year earlier. By region, the California medium- and short-grain SAFP was lowered 50 cents on both the high and low ends to $18.50-$19.50 per cwt, down from $21.60 a year earlier. In the South, the medium- and short-grain SAFP was lowered 30 cents on both the high and low ends to $11.40-$12.00 per cwt, also well below $14.40 a year earlier.
In late February, NASS reported a January long-grain rough rice cash price of $11.50 per cwt, up 10 cents from a month earlier. Long-grain rough-rice rice prices have changed little since October. For medium- and short-grain rice, the January price was reported at $16.90 per cwt, up 70 cents from December and the third month of rising prices. ∆
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