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U.S. Reports Smallest Average Yield Since 2011/12
A higher yield forecast increased the 2015/16 U.S. rice production forecast 1.6 percent to 190.8 million cwt, 14 percent below a year earlier. At 7,423 pounds per acre, the U.S. 2015/16 average yield is 116 pounds above last month’s forecast but 149 pounds below a year earlier.
The 2015/16 long-grain production forecast was raised 2.1 million cwt to 132.4 million cwt, 19 percent smaller than a year earlier. The combined medium- and short-grain production forecast was raised 0.9 million cwt to 58.4 million cwt, almost unchanged from a year earlier. Yield forecasts for all rice for 2015/16 were raised this month for all reported States except Arkansas and Texas; with the Texas yield lowered and the Arkansas yield unchanged from a month earlier.
Rice planted area declined in 2015/16 from a year earlier in all reported States, with Arkansas accounting for more than half of the area reduction.
Yields are forecast lower than a year earlier in all reported States except California.
Rice production is projected smaller than a year earlier in all reported States, with Arkansas accounting for more than half the projected 30.2 million cwt decline in production in 2015/16.
U.S. 2015/16 Total Supply Forecast Raised 1 Percent to 264.8 Million Cwt
The 2015/16 total supply forecast was raised 1 percent to 264.8 million cwt, almost 5 percent below a year earlier. The upward revision was due to a larger crop forecast. The 2015/16 long-grain total supply forecast was raised 2.1 million cwt to 180.8 million cwt, 10 percent below a year earlier. The combined medium- and short-grain total supply forecast was increased 0.9 million cwt to 82.1 million cwt, up 8 percent from a year earlier and the highest since 1982/83. The buildup and high level of U.S. medium- and short-grain supplies are primarily due to a substantial carryin.
The all rice carryin remains estimated at 48.5 million cwt, 52 percent above a year earlier. The long-grain carryin remains estimated at 26.5 million cwt, 63 percent above a year earlier and the highest since 2011/12. The medium- and short-grain 2015/16 carryin remains estimated at 20.2 million tons, 51 percent above a year earlier and the highest since 1987/88. Stocks of brokens are included in the total but are not listed by class.
U.S. rice imports in 2015/16 remain forecast at a record 25.5 million cwt, up 3 percent from a year earlier. Through September, U.S. imports of rice were about 1.5 percent below a year earlier, with smaller purchases from Thailand and Vietnam accounting for most of the slightly slower pace.
Projections for Both U.S. Domestic Use and Exports Raised
Total use of U.S. rice in 2015/16 is forecast at 225.0 million cwt, up 3.0 million cwt from the previous forecast but 2 percent below a year earlier. Long-grain total use is forecast at 159.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but 8 percent below a year earlier.
Combined medium- and short-grain total use in 2015/16 is forecast at 66.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month and 18 percent above a year earlier and the highest since 2011/12.
Total domestic and residual use is projected at 127.0 million cwt, 2.0 million cwt above the previous forecast but 1 percent below a year earlier. Long-grain 2015/16 total domestic and residual use is projected at 94.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million from last month’s forecast but 8 percent below a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use is projected at 33.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 26 percent larger than a year earlier.
U.S. rice exports in 2015/16 are forecast at 98.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but 2 percent smaller than a year earlier. By type, U.S. rough-rice exports remain projected at 33.0 million cwt, 3 percent below a year earlier.
U.S. long-grain exports in 2015/16 are projected at 65.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but 8 percent smaller than a year earlier.
Through October 29, combined exports and outstanding sales of U.S. rice reported in the Foreign Agricultural Service’s weekly U.S. Export Sales of 1.51 million tons (product-weight basis) were 24 percent ahead of a year earlier. Exports of all rice were reported at 956,500 tons, up 78 percent from a year earlier.
Combined outstanding sales and exports of U.S. long-grain rough-rice on October 29 were reported at 704,000 tons, up 17 percent from a year earlier. Exports of long-grain rough-rice were reported at 474,500 tons, up 74 percent from a year earlier.
In contrast, combined outstanding sales and exports of medium- and short-grain rough-rice on October 29 of 55,500 tons were 53 percent behind a year earlier.
For long-grain milled rice, combined outstanding sales and shipments through October 29 were reported at 379,700 tons, up 26.5 percent from a year earlier. Exports of U.S. long-grain milled rice on October 29 were reported at 245,200 tons, up 37 percent from last year.
Combined outstanding sales of medium- and short-grain milled rice on October 29 were reported at 321,000 tons, up 77 percent from a year earlier.
With the increase in total supplies nearly matching the upward revision in total use, U.S. ending stocks remain projected at 39.8 million cwt, 18 percent below a year earlier. The 2015/16 stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 17.7 percent, down from 21.2 percent a year earlier. The 2015/16 long-grain ending stocks remains forecast at 21.8 million cwt, down almost 18 percent from a year earlier. The long-grain 2015/16 stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 13.7 percent, down from 15.3 percent a year earlier. The combined medium- and short-grain ending stocks forecast remains forecast at 16.1 million cwt, 20 percent below the year-earlier 28-year high.
U.S. 2015/16 Long-Grain Season-Average Rough-Rice Price Forecast Lowered
The 2015/16 season-average farm price (SAFP) for U.S. long-grain rice is projected at $11.50-$12.50 per cwt, down $1.30 on both ends from last month’s forecast. The mid-point is little changed from $11.90 in 2014/15. The 2015/16 U.S. medium- and short-grain SAFP is projected at $17.60-$18.60, up 30 cents on both the high and low end from last month’s forecast.
By region, the California 2015/16 medium- and short-grain SAFP is projected at $21.00-$22.00 per cwt, up 50 cents on both the high and low ends.
This compares with a revised $21.40 SAFP in 2014/15. In the South, the 2015/16 medium- and short-grain SAFP is projected at $12.50-$13.50 per cwt, down $1.00 on the high and low end of last month’s forecast. The midpoint of $13.00 per cwt is $1.40 below the revised 2014/15 SAFP of $14.40.
In late October, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported a September U.S. long-grain rough-rice cash price of $10.90 per cwt, up 50 cents from August. For U.S. combined medium- and short-grain rice, the September NASS price was reported at $15.70 per cwt, down $1.80 cents from the August price.
The September 2015 Southern medium- and short-grain rough-rice price is reported at $12.20 per cwt, down 70 cents from August and the lowest since NASS began reporting monthly medium- and short-grain prices by region in August 2013. U.S. growers expanded southern medium-grain area in both 2014/15 and 2015/16. ∆
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