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Rice Planted Area Declines In All Reporting States
The U.S. 2015/16 rice production forecast was lowered 15.5 million cwt to 189.5 million cwt, 14 percent below a year earlier and the smallest since 2011/12.
The 2015/16 planted area estimate was reduced 6 percent to 2.61 million acres, an 11-percent decline from a year earlier. The 2015/16 area estimate was lowered from the June survey of actual plantings based on certified acreage data obtained by the Farm Service Agency.
Long-grain production is projected at 131.5 million cwt, 12 percent below last month’s forecast and 19 percent below a year earlier. The combined medium- and short-grain crop is projected at 58.02 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but 1 percent below a year earlier.
Area estimates were lowered this month for all States except for California, with Arkansas accounting for almost half of the 156,000-acre reduction in the 2015/16 U.S. rice area estimate.
Rice planted area is estimated to have declined in 2015/16 from a year earlier in all reported States, with Arkansas accounting for more than half of the 328,000-acre area reduction.
Yields are forecast lower than a year earlier in all reported States except Texas, with Louisiana and Missouri reporting the largest declines from 2014/15.
Rice Production Projected Smaller in 2015/16 in All Reported States
Rice production is projected to be smaller than a year earlier in all reported States. The Arkansas crop of 95.9 million cwt is 14 percent below a year earlier, mostly due to weaker plantings. Louisiana’s 2015/16 production of 27.7 million cwt is 15 percent below last year, with both area and yield lower. In Mississippi, 2015/16 production is projected at 11.1 million cwt, a drop of 21 percent from a year earlier, nearly all due to smaller plantings. Missouri’s 2015/16 crop projection of 10.6 million tons is 27 percent below last year, a result of smaller plantings and a weaker yield. Smaller plantings are expected to reduce the 2015/16 Texas rice crop 7 percent to 10.0 million cwt, the smallest since 1947/48. In California, 2015/16 production is projected at 34.1 million cwt, a decline of 8 percent from 2014/15, a result of smaller plantings and a weaker yield. This is the smallest California crop since 1998/99.
The pace of the 2015/16 harvest is near-normal in most areas. For the week ending September 6, 35 percent of the U.S. 2015/16 rice crop was reported harvested, 10 percentage points ahead of last year and one percentage point ahead of the U.S. 5- year average. Harvest was not as advanced in the Delta.
U.S. 2015/16 Total Supply Forecast Lowered 14.9 Million Cwt
This month, a slight increase in the U.S. 2015/16 all rice carryin estimate was more than offset by the 15.5-million cwt reduction in the crop forecast, reducing the total supply forecast 5 percent to 263.5 million cwt, 14.0 million cwt below a year earlier and the smallest since 2011/12. The 2015/16 long-grain total supply forecast was lowered 20.1 million cwt to 180.0 million, 10 percent below a year earlier. In contrast, the combined medium- and short-grain total supply forecast was increased 5.7 million cwt to 81.7 million cwt, up 8 percent from a year earlier and the highest since 2011/12.
The all rice carryin estimate was raised 0.7 million cwt to 48.5 million cwt, 52 percent above a year earlier. The long-grain carryin estimate was lowered 2.6 million cwt to 26.5 million cwt, 63 percent above a year earlier and the highest since 2011/12. The medium- and short-grain 2015/16 carryin estimate was raised 3.7 million cwt to 20.2 million tons, 51 percent above a year earlier and the highest since 1987/88.
U.S. 2015/16 Rice Export Forecast Lowered to 97.0 Million Cwt
The 2015/16 total use forecast was lowered 14.0 million cwt to 222.0 million cwt, 3 percent below a year earlier.
Total domestic and residual use is projected at 125.0 million cwt, down 4.0 million from the previous forecast and 3 percent below a year earlier. Long-grain 2015/16 total domestic and residual use is projected at 93.0 million cwt, down 6.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and 9 percent below a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use is projected at 32.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and 22 percent larger than a year earlier.
U.S. rice exports in 2015/16 are forecast at 97.0 million cwt, down 10.0 million cwt – all long-grain – from the previous forecast and 3 percent smaller than a year earlier. The U.S. price difference over Asian competitors is expected to widen in 2015/16.
U.S. long-grain exports in 2015/16 are projected at 64.0 million cwt, down 10.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and 10 percent smaller than a year earlier.
U.S. 2014/15 Ending Stocks Estimate Raised; Exports Lowered
There were several revisions this month to the 2014/15 U.S. rice balance sheet, a result of year-end trade and stocks data. On the supply side, the 2014/15 import estimate was lowered 1 percent to 24.7 million cwt, up 7 percent from a year earlier. Long-grain 2014/15 imports were lowered almost 2 percent to 21.1 million cwt, 8 percent above a year earlier. In contrast, combined medium- and short-grain exports were raised 1 percent to 3.54 million cwt, nearly unchanged from 2013/14.
On the use side, the 2014/15 export estimate was lowered 0.7 million cwt to 100.3 million, 7.5 percent above a year earlier. Long-grain 2014/15 exports were lowered just 0.2 million cwt to 70.8 million cwt, 14 percent above a year earlier. In contrast, medium- and short-grain exports were revised down 0.5 million cwt to 29.5 million cwt. Both the import and export revisions were based on monthly U.S. Census trade through the end of the 2014/15 market year in July.
Rice stocks on August 1 were higher than a year earlier in all reported States except for Mississippi and Texas, with Arkansas accounting for half of all U.S. rice stocks on August 1.
These revisions in imports, exports, and ending stocks resulted in a fractional reduction in the 2014/15 domestic and residual use estimate to 128.7 million cwt, 3.5 percent above a year earlier and the second highest on record.
U.S. 2015/16 Long-Grain Season-Average Rough-Rice Price Forecast Raised
The 2015/16 season-average farm price (SAFP) for U.S. long-grain rice is projected at $12.80-$13.80 per cwt, up $1.30 on both the high and low ends from last month’s forecast and above $11.90 in 2014/15.
The 2015/16 U.S. medium- and short-grain SAFP is projected at $17.50-$18.50, down 30 cents on both the high- and low end from last month’s forecast. The midpoint of $18.00 is slightly higher than the 2014/15 SAFP of $17.90 per cwt.
In late August, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported a July U.S. long-grain rough-rice cash price of $9.96 per cwt, down 44 cents from June and the lowest since September 2007. Since the start of the 2014/15 market year in August, long-grain cash prices have dropped $4.34 per cwt. Virtually all U.S. long-grain rice is grown in the South. For U.S. combined medium- and short-grain rice, the July NASS price was reported at $16.60 per cwt, down 80 cents from the June price and $3.70 below the August 2014 price. ∆
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