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Production Forecasts Lowered, Mostly In SE Asia, Latin America
Global rice production for 2015/16 is projected at 478.6 million tons (milled basis), down 1.7 million tons from last month’s forecast but 2.4 million tons larger than a year earlier and the highest on record.
Production forecasts were lowered this month for several countries, with countries in Southeast Asia and Latin America accounting for most of the reduction.
There were four reductions in 2015/16 production forecasts for Latin American countries this month. First, Argentina’s 2015/16 production forecast was lowered 0.16 million tons to 890,000 tons due to a smaller area forecast. Second, Uruguay’s 2015/16 production forecast was lowered 46,000 tons to 990,000 tons, also due to expectations of smaller plantings.
Third, Venezuela’s 2015/16 production forecast was lowered 40,000 tons to 340,000 tons due to smaller plantings. Finally, Cuba’s 2015/16 production forecast was reduced 65,000 tons to 390,000 tons based on a lower yield caused by abnormally dry conditions.
In other regions, Iraq’s 2015/16 production forecast was lowered 190,000 tons to 110,000 tons due to a 50-percent reduction in the area forecast to 48,000 hectares. Finally, the U.S. 2015/16 production forecast was lowered 63,000 tons to 6.5 million tons based on a weaker yield reported by NASS. U.S. production is 8 percent below a year earlier, a result of both smaller area and a lower yield.
These downward revisions were partly offset by two upward revisions. First, Sri Lanka’s 2015/16 production forecast was raised 0.15 million tons to 3.0 million tons due to a larger than expected yala crop harvested August-September 2015. Second, the European Union’s 2015/16 production forecast was raised 25,000 tons to 1.92 million tons, a result of larger crop forecasts for Italy and Portugal.
The 2014/15 global production forecast was lowered fractionally to 476.2 million tons, almost 2 million tons below the 2013/14 crop. There were four nearly offsetting 2015/16 production revisions this month, all in South America. Production estimates were lowered for Ecuador and Bolivia, but raised for Venezuela and Uruguay.
Global consumption and residual use is projected at 487.8 million cwt in 2015/16, down 1.0 million tons from the previous forecast but up almost 1 percent from a year earlier and the highest on record.
With consumption projected to exceed production for the third consecutive year, global ending stocks in 2015/16 are projected to decline 9.2 million tons to 90.8 million, 0.3 million below last month’s forecast and the lowest since 2007/08.
Export Forecasts for 2016 Raised for India and Vietnam
Global rice trade in calendar year 2016 is projected at 42.3 million tons (milled basis), up 0.2 million tons from last month’s forecast but 0.2 million tons below this year’s trade.
There were several nearly offsetting 2016 export revisions this month. Two were upward revisions. First, India’s 2016 export forecast was raised 0.5 million tons to 9.5 million tons based on more competitive prices. India’s exports are 18 percent below the year-earlier record. Second, Vietnam’s 2016 export forecast was raised 100,000 tons to 7.0 million tons to offset weaker shipments from Cambodia.
These two upward revisions were partially offset by four reductions. First, Cambodia’s 2016 export forecast was lowered 0.2 million tons to 1.0 million, 0.1 million tons below a year earlier. Second, Argentina’s 2016 export forecast was lowered 100,000 tons to 480,000 tons, still 20 percent above this year. Third, Uruguay’s 2016 exports were lowered 50,000 tons to 950,000 tons, unchanged from a year earlier. Finally, the U.S. 2016 export forecast was lowered 50,000 tons to 3.45 million tons.
There were only two 2016 import revisions this month. First, Cuba’s 2016 import forecast was raised 50,000 tons to 500,000 tons due to a smaller crop. Second, the United States’ 2016 import forecast was raised 20,000 tons to a record 820,000 tons based on expectations that the stronger pace observed in 2015 will continue.
Global trade in 2015 is projected at 42.5 million tons, down 1.2 million tons from last month’s forecast and 0.9 million tons below the year-earlier record.
There were three export revisions for 2015. First, Thailand’s 2015 export forecast was lowered 1.0 million tons to 9.0 million tons based on shipment pace through June and stronger competition from India in major markets. Thailand’s exports are 18 percent below 2014. Second, Argentina’s 2015 exports were lowered 160,000tons to 400,000 tons based on a slow pace of sales. Third, the U.S. 2015 export forecast was lowered 50,000 tons to 3.4 million tons.
There were five significant 2015 import revisions this month. First, Brazil’s 2015imports were lowered 0.1 million tons to 0.5 million tons based on a slower pace of shipments from Argentina and Uruguay. Second, Sri Lanka’s 2015 imports were raised 100,000 tons to 350,000 tons based on continued large purchases from India. Third, Mexico’s 2015 export forecast was lowered almost 0.1 million tons to 680,000 based on shipment pace. Fourth, Bangladesh’s 2015 imports were increased 50,000 tons to 750,000 tons based on recommendations from the U.S. Agricultural Office in Dhaka. Finally, the U.S. 2015 import forecast was raised 20,000 tons to 800,000 tons based on a stronger pace of deliveries through June.
Thailand and Vietnam’s Trading Prices Drop; U.S. Long-Grain Prices Rise
Prices for high and medium grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice have decreased 1-3 percent from a month earlier, largely due to a weaker baht, continued sales of Government stocks, and a lack of new export sales. Prices for Thailand's high-quality, 100-percent Grade B (free-on-board (fob) vessel, Bangkok) milled rice for export were quoted at $386 per ton for the week ending August 10, down $6 from the week ending July 6.
In contrast, prices for Thailand’s A-1 Super 100-percent brokens were quoted at $325 per ton, up $4 from July 6. In addition, price quotes for Thailand’s premium jasmine rice, an aromatic variety, were quoted at $864 per ton for the week ending August 10, up $16 from the week ending July 6.
Price quotes from Vietnam have declined slightly over the past month.
U.S. prices for long-grain milled-rice have increased over the past month, partly a response to recent large purchases of new-crop rice for shipment later in season. Both Iraq and Iran have 60,000 tons of outstanding sales of long-grain milled-rice. For the week ending August 11, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulfport) were quoted at $491 per ton, up $17 from July 7. The U.S. price difference (adjusted to reflect an fob vessel location) over Thailand’s 100-percent grade B is $130 per ton, up $23 from a month ago. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) are quoted at $280 per ton for the week ending August 11, up $60 from the week ending July 7.
Price quotes for package-quality California medium-grain milled-rice (bulk) for domestic sales to processors and repackagers are unchanged from late May. For the week ending August 11, prices remain quoted at $849 per ton. ∆
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