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Arkansas Accounts For Most Decline In U.S. Rice Area
The U.S. 2015/16 rice production forecast was lowered 1 percent to 205.0 million cwt, 7 percent below a year earlier.
Total planted area remains estimated at 2.77 million acres, 6 percent below a year earlier. Area is estimated below a year earlier in all reported States, with Arkansas accounting for more than half the decline in U.S. rice area.
By class, 2015/16 U.S. long-grain production is projected at 149.0 million cwt, down 2 percent from the previous forecast and 8 percent below a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain production is projected at 56.0 million cwt, up 3 percent from the previous forecast but 5 percent below a year earlier.
Average field yields were reported below a year earlier in California, Louisiana, and Mississippi; nearly unchanged in Arkansas and Missouri; and higher than last year in Texas.
Rice production in 2015/16 is projected to be smaller than a year earlier in all reported States except Texas. The Arkansas rice crop of 104.6 million cwt is 7 percent smaller than a year earlier, a result of smaller plantings.
Despite a slow start to planting across most of the South, progress of the 2015/16 U.S. rice crop was well ahead of both last year and the U.S. 5-year average. For the week ending August 9, 81 percent of the U.S. crop was reported heading, up from 69 percent a year earlier and the U.S. 5-year average of 71 percent.
2015/16 U.S. Rice Import Forecast
Raised to a Record 25.5 Million Cwt
U.S. 2015/16 rice imports are forecast at a record 25.5 million cwt, up 0.5 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 2 percent higher than the year-earlier revised level. Long-grain accounts for all of the upward revision in imports. U.S. 2015/16 long-grain imports are forecast at a record 22.0 million cwt, up 2 percent from the year-earlier revised level.
The 2015/16 U.S.carryin was raised 1.5 million cwt to 47.9 million cwt due to revisions to the 2014/15 balance sheet.
The 2015/16 total supply forecast of 278.4 million cwt is nearly unchanged from last month and just 0.5 million cwt above a year earlier.
U.S. 2015/16 Rice Export Forecast
Lowered to 107.0 Million Cwt
The 2015/16 total use forecast was lowered 4.0 million cwt to 236.0 million cwt, with forecasts for both combined domestic and residual use and for total exports lowered. Total use is up 3 percent from a year earlier and is second only to the 2010/11 record of 249.5 million cwt. Long-grain 2015/16 total use is projected at 173.0 million cwt, down 3.0 million cwt from the previous forecast but still 1 percent larger than the year-earlier revised estimate. Combined medium- and short-grain 2015/16 total use is forecast at 63.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but 7 percent above the year-earlier revised estimate.
Total domestic and residual use is projected at 129.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million from the previous forecast but unchanged from a year earlier.
U.S. rice exports in 2015/16 are forecast at 107.0 million cwt, down 3.0 million cwt from the previous forecast but 6 percent larger than a year earlier.
Long-grain exports in 2015/16 are projected at 74.0 million cwt, down 2.0 million cwt from the previous forecast but 4 percent higher than a year earlier. Medium- and short-grain exports are forecast at 33.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million from the previous forecast but 10 percent above a year earlier.
The reduced forecast for total use in 2015/16 raised the ending stocks forecast 4.0 million cwt to 42.4 million cwt, 11 percent below a year earlier. The 2015/16 stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 18.0 percent, down from 20.8 percent a year earlier.
The 2015/16 long-grain ending stocks forecast was raised 3.5 million cwt to 27.1 million cwt, down 7 percent from a year earlier. The long-grain 2015/16 stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 15.7 percent, down from 17.0 percent a year earlier. Medium- and short-grain ending stocks in 2015/16 are forecast at 13.0 million cwt, up 0.5 million cwt from the previous forecast but 21 percent below the year-earlier 28-year high.
U.S. 2014/15 Long-Grain
Export Forecast Lowered
There were several revisions to the 2014/15 all-rice balance sheet this month. On the supply side, total exports were raised 0.5 million cwt to 25.0 million based on delivery pace through June and expectations regarding imports in July.
On the use side, 2014/15 long-grain exports were lowered 3.0 million cwt to 71.0 million cwt, 15 percent above a year earlier. The revision was based on Census trade data through June and shipment data from the weekly U.S. Export Sales through July 30 indicating a slower-than-expected pace of shipments late in the market year. In contrast, the medium- and short-grain 2014/16 export forecast was raised 2.0 million cwt to 30.0 million cwt based on a faster-than-expected pace of shipments to Northeast Asia in July.
Total exports were lowered 1.0 million cwt to 101.0 million cwt, 8 percent larger than a year earlier. By type, rough-rice exports were lowered 0.5 million cwt to 34.5 million cwt, 23 percent above a year earlier.
These revisions in supply and use forecasts resulted in a 1.5 million cwt increase in 2014/15 ending stocks to 47.9 million cwt, 50 percent above a year earlier and the second highest since 1986/87. The 2014/15 long-grain ending stocks forecast was raised 3.5 million cwt to 29.1 million cwt, 80 percent larger than a year earlier. In contrast, the medium- and short-grain 2014/15 ending stocks forecast was lowered 2.0 million cwt to 16.5 million cwt, 24 percent above a year earlier and highest since 1986/87.
U.S. 2015/16 Long-Grain
Season-Average Rough-Rice Price Forecast Raised
The 2015/16 season-average farm price (SAFP) for U.S. long-grain rice is projected at $11.50-$12.50 per cwt, up 60 cents on both the high and low ends from last month’s forecast, compared with a slightly revised $11.90 in 2014/15.
The 2015/16 U.S. medium- and short-grain SAFP remains projected at $17.80- $18.80, compared with a slightly revised $17.90 in 2014/15. In the South, the 2015/16 medium- and short-grain SAFP remains projected at $14.30-$15.30 per cwt, compared with a revised $14.60 for 2014/15. The 2015/16 all-rice SAFP is projected at $13.40-$14.40 per cwt, up 40 cents on both the high and low ends from last month. This compares with a revised 2014/15 SAFP of $13.30.
There were slight revisions to the 2014/15 SAFP forecasts this month. First, the 2014/15 long-grain SAFP forecast was lowered 20 cents to $11.90 per cwt. Second, the California medium- and short-grain 2014/15 SAFP was raised 20 cents to $20.70 per cwt. Third, the southern medium- and short-grain SAFP was lowered 20 cents to $14.60 per cwt. Fourth, the 2014/15 U.S. medium- and short-grain price was lowered 10 cents to $17.90 per cwt.
In late July, NASS reported a June U.S. long-grain rough-rice cash price of $10.40 per cwt, down 60 cents from May but the lowest since October 2010. Since the start of the 2014/15 market year in August, long-grain cash prices have dropped $3.90 per cwt. ∆
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