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Increased Rice Acreage Reported Globally
Global rice production for 2015/16 is projected at 480.3million tons (milled basis), down 1.4 million tons from last month’s forecast but 4.1 million tons larger than a year earlier and the highest on record.
There were six 2015/16 downward production revisions this month, three in exporting countries. First, Thailand’s 2015/16 production forecast was lowered 0.8 million tons to 19.0 million tons based on lower main-crop area resulting from severe drought.
The U.S. 2015/16 production forecast was lowered 381,000 tons to 6.57 million tons due to a smaller area estimate reported by the Government. Production on a milled basis is 7 percent below 2014/15. Despite the smaller crop, U.S. supplies are virtually unchanged from a year earlier. The United States is a major exporter in the global long-grain market – the dominant class of rice traded globally – and in the much smaller global medium- and short-grain market.
Australia’s 2015/16 production forecast was lowered 61,000 tons to 425,000 tons based on lower expected area due to low reservoir levels caused by drought. Area was lowered 8,000 hectares to 60,000 hectares, the lowest since 2009/10.
Madagascar’s 2015/16 production forecast was reduced 192,000 tons to 2.56 million tons based on FAO’s forecast of a below-average crop due to generally erratic rainfall in most of the country and dry conditions in southern regions. Afghanistan’s 2015/16 production was lowered 38,000 tons to 462,000 tons due to a lower yield. Both Madagascar and Afghanistan are regular importers of rice.
Finally, North Korea’s 2015/16 production forecast was lowered 100,000 tons to 1.6 million tons – the smallest since 2011/12 – based on smaller area resulting from severe drought.
These 2015/16 reductions were partially offset by two upward revisions. First, Laos’ 2015/16 production forecast was raised 100,000 tons to 1.75 million tons based on a higher yield and larger area. Second, Iran’s 2015/16 production forecast was raised 66,000 tons to 1.75 million tons based on a higher yield and larger area.
The 2014/15 global rice production forecast was raised 0.15 million tons to 476.3 million tons, down 1.9 million tons from a year earlier.
There were three smaller upward revisions for 2014/15 in South America. First, Brazil’s 2014/15 crop estimate was raised 70,000 tons to 8.5 million tons based on a higher yield reported by the Government. Second, Argentina’s 2014/15 crop was raised 54,000 tons to 1.01 million tons based on Ministry of Agriculture year-end data. Third, Chile’s 2014/15 production was raised slightly, also based on year-end Government data. Finally, Australia’s 2014/15 production was raised, also based on yearend data.
These upward revisions were partly offset by a 320,000-ton reduction in the Philippines’ 2014/15 production estimate to 11.88 million tons.
Global rice consumption (including a residual component) in 2015/16 is projected at a record 488.8 million tons, virtually unchanged from last month’s forecast but up almost 1 percent from a year earlier.
Thailand’s Export Forecasts Lowered for 2015 and 2016
Global rice trade in calendar year 2016 is projected at 42.1 million tons (milled basis), down 0.25 million tons from last month’s forecast and 4 percent below this year’s record.
There were several 2016 export revisions this month, mostly a response to weaker exports from Thailand. Thailand’s 2016 export forecast was lowered 0.8 million tons to 10.2 million tons based on a smaller crop. To offset this reduction, 2016 export forecasts were raised for Vietnam, Burma, and Pakistan. Vietnam’s 2016 exports were raised 0.2 million tons to 6.9 million tons, up 3 percent from a year earlier and the highest since 2012.
Pakistan’s 2016 export forecast was also raised 0.2 million tons, to 4.0 million tons, unchanged from this year’s revised forecast and just slightly below the record 4.1 million tons shipped in 2013.
In contrast to these upward revisions, Australia’s 2016 export forecast was lowered 50,000 tons to 300,000 tons based on a smaller crop.
There were only two 2016 import revisions this month. First, South Africa’s 2016 import forecast was lowered 200,000 tons to 1.0 million tons. Second, the United States 2016 import forecast was raised 50,000 tons to a record 800,000 tons.
Global trade in 2015 is projected at a record 43.7 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month’s forecast and up 0.3 million tons from a year earlier.
There were four export revisions for 2015. First, Thailand’s 2015 export forecast was lowered 1.0 million tons to 10.0 million based on the January-May shipment pace and a 0.6-million ton increase in consumption to 11.7 million tons to reflect use of non-food quality rice for ethanol. Burma’s 2015 export forecast was increased 150,000 tons to 2.0 million based on larger shipments to China and the European Union. Burma, like Cambodia, benefits from the European Union’s Everything but Arms (EBA) initiative that allows all imports except arms to the EU from the Least Developed Countries duty- and quota-free. Finally, Pakistan’s 2015 export forecast was raised 100,000 tons to 4.0 million based on shipment pace and data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Pakistan’s exports are up 11 percent from 2014.
There were two significant 2015 import revisions this month. First, South Africa’s 2015 imports were lowered 100,000 tons to 1.0 million tons based on shipment pace and rising prices. Second, the U.S. 2015 import forecast was raised 80,000 tons to 780,000 tons based on a stronger pace.
Thailand’s Trading Prices Rise on Concerns Over Drought
Prices for most grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice have increased 3-5 percent from a month earlier, largely a response to concerns over a drought-reduced 2015/16 main crop. Prices for Thailand’s high-quality, 100-percent Grade B (free-on-board (fob) vessel, Bangkok) milled rice for export were quoted at $392 per ton for the week ending July 6, up $12 from the week ending June 8 and the highest since early May. Prices for Thailand’s 5-percent brokens were quoted at $381 per ton for the week ending July 6, also up $12 from the week ending June 8. Prices for Thailand’s 5-percent parboiled rice, a specialty rice, were quoted at $387 per ton for the week ending July 6, up $18 from the week ending June 8.
In contrast, prices for Thailand’s A-1 Super 100-percent brokens were quoted at $321 per ton, down $2 from June 8. In addition, price quotes for Thailand’s premium jasmine rice, an aromatic variety, were quoted at $848 per ton for the week ending July 6, down $5 from the week ending June 8.
Price quotes from Vietnam have declined slightly over the past month. For the week ending July 6, prices for Vietnam’s double-water-polished milled-rice with 5- percent brokens were quoted at $350 per ton, down $5 from early June.
U.S. prices for long-grain milled-rice have increased slightly over the past month. For the week ending July 7, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulfport) were quoted at $475 per ton, up from $457 in mid-June and $468 in late May. This converts to a loaded-on-vessel price of $500 per ton in early July. The U.S. price difference (adjusted to reflect an fob vessel location) over Thailand’s 100-percent grade B is $108 per ton, up a few dollars from a month ago but well below the record of more than $200 reported last summer. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) are quoted at $220 per ton for the week ending July 7, down $5 from mid-June.
Price quotes for package-quality California medium-grain milled-rice (bulk) for domestic sales to processors and repackagers are unchanged from late May. For the week ending July 7, prices remain quoted at $849 per ton. Export prices for California milled rice are up from June. For California milled medium-grain exports (4 percent brokens, sacked, on board vessel in Oakland), prices were quoted at $950 per ton for the week ending July 7, up from $935 in late May and early June. ∆
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