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Low Prices, Cool, Wet Spring Cause Drop In U.S. Rice Acreage
The first survey of actual 2015/16 U.S. rice plantings reports area at 2.77 million acres, down 5 percent from the March intended plantings and 6 percent below a year earlier.
Arkansas accounts for more than half the decline in U.S. rice area in 2015/16. At 1.39 million acres, rice plantings in Arkansas are more than 6 percent below a year earlier, with long-grain accounting for all of the decline. Low prices and a cool, wet spring are behind the 9-percent decline in long-grain plantings in the State. Arkansas’ medium-grain plantings increased 20,000 acres from 2014/15 to 240,000 acres, the highest since 2011/12 and double the 2013/14 plantings. The recent expansion in Arkansas medium-grain plantings is largely due to expectations of favorable prices caused by substantial declines in California’s medium-grain area since 2014/15.
California reported the largest percentage decline in rice area in 2015/16. At 385,000 acres, California’s 2015/16 rice plantings are 11 percent below a year earlier and the lowest since 1991/92, a result of a fourth year of drought in the State.
Louisiana’s 2015/16 rice plantings are estimated at 450,000 acres, 3 percent below a year earlier. Medium-grain accounts for most of the decline in Louisiana’s rice acreage in 2015/16.
Mississippi’s 2015/16 rice plantings are estimated at 181,000 acres, down 5 percent from a year earlier. Missouri’s 2015/16 rice plantings of 215,000 acres are just 1,000 acres below a year earlier, despite a cool, wet spring.
Progress of the 2015/16 U.S. Rice Crop Ahead of Normal
Despite the cool and wet spring that delayed plantings and hampered field operations in much of the South, progress of the 2015/16 U.S. crop is ahead of normal. For the week ending July 5, 25 percent of the U.S. 2015/16 rice crop was reported headed, 10 percentage points ahead of the U.S. 5-year average. Progress was ahead of normal in all six reported States.
U.S. 2015/16 Rice Production Projected at 207.0 Million Cwt
The 2015/16 U.S. crop forecast was lowered 5.5 percent from the previous forecast to 207.0 million cwt, 6 percent smaller than the 2014/15 crop.
By class, 2015/16 long-grain production is projected at 152.5million cwt, down 6 percent from both the previous forecast and a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain production is projected at 54.5 million cwt, down 4 percent from the previous forecast and 7 percent below a year earlier.
U.S. 2015/16 rice imports remain forecast at a record 25.0 million cwt, up 2 percent from the previous year.
The 2015/16 carryin was raised 1.0 million cwt to 46.4 million cwt due to revisions to the 2014/15 balance sheet. Carryin in 2015/16 is 46 percent larger than a year earlier and the second highest since 1987/88.
U.S. Rice Exports Are Projected To Increase 8 Percent in 2015/16
The 2015/16 total use forecast was lowered 1.0 million cwt—all long-grain—to 240.0 million cwt due to a slightly smaller domestic and residual use forecast. Total use is up 4 percent from a year earlier and is second only to the 2010/11 record of 249.5 million cwt. Long-grain 2015/16 total use is projected at 176.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast but still 1 percent larger than the year-earlier revised estimate. Combined medium- and short-grain 2015/16 total use remains forecast at 64.0 million cwt, 12 percent above the year-earlier revised estimate.
Total domestic and residual use is projected at 130.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million from the previous forecast but still almost 1 percent larger than a year earlier and the second highest on record. The downward revision was largely based on a smaller crop. Long-grain 2015/16 total domestic and residual use is projected at 176.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast but still up 1 percent from a year earlier.
U.S. rice exports in 2015/16 remain forecast at 110.0 million cwt, 8 percent larger than a year earlier and the highest since 2010/11. The larger 2015/16 export forecast is based on expectations of more competitive U.S. prices.
Long-grain exports in 2015/16 remain projected at 76.0 million cwt, 3 percent higher than the previous year. The larger export forecast for 2015/16 is based on a smaller price difference over Asian competitors. Medium- and short-grain exports remain forecast at 34.0 million cwt, 21 percent above a year earlier.
U.S. 2015/16 Ending Stocks Forecast Lowered to 38.4 Million Cwt
The combination of a smaller carryin and weaker crop forecast have reduced the 2015/16 carryout forecast 10.0 million cwt to 38.4 million cwt, down 17 percent from a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 16.0 percent, down from 20.1 percent a year earlier.
The 2015/16 long-grain ending stocks forecast was lowered 11.5 million cwt to 23.6 million cwt, down 8 percent from a year earlier.
Medium- and short-grain ending stocks in 2015/16 are forecast at 12.5 million cwt, up 1.5 million cwt from the previous forecast but 33 percent below the year-earlier 28-year high.
U.S. 2015/16 Medium- and Short-grain Export and Domestic Use Forecasts Lowered
Although there were only minor revisions to the 2014/15 all-rice balance sheet this month, there were major revisions by class. For all rice, exports were lowered 1.0 million cwt to 102.0 million cwt.
Medium- and short-grain exports were lowered 2.0 million cwt to 28.0 million cwt, based on a large volume of outstanding sales to Japan and South Korea that are not expected to ship until after the start of the 2015/16 market year.
The 2014/15 all rice domestic and residual use forecast remains at 129.0 million cwt; however, there were substantial revisions by class, largely based on data from the June Rice Stocks.
U.S. 2015/16 Long-Grain Season-Average Rough-Rice Price Forecast Raised
The 2015/16 season-average farm price (SAFP) for U.S. long-grain rice is projected at $10.90-$11.90 per cwt, up 90 cents on both the high and low ends from last month’s forecast but still below the revised $12.10 in 2014/15.
The 2015/16 U.S. medium- and short-grain SAFP remains projected at $17.80- $18.80, compared with $18.00 in 2014/15. By region, the California 2015/16 medium- and short-grain SAFP is projected at $20.50-$21.50 per cwt, compared with a revised $20.50 in 2014/15. In the South, the 2015/16 medium- and short-grain SAFP is projected at $14.30-$15.30 per cwt, down 20 cents on both the high and low ends from last month’s forecasts.
In late June, NASS reported a May U.S. long-grain rough-rice cash price of $11.00 per cwt, unchanged from April but the lowest since June 2011. Since the start of the 2014/15 market year in August, long-grain cash prices have dropped $3.30 per cwt. Virtually all U.S. long-grain rice is grown in the South.
By region, in May the California medium- and short-grain rough-rice price was estimated at $21.20 per cwt, up 20 cents from a month earlier but down 70 cents from the start of the California market year in October. ∆
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