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Record Production Forecast Due To Acreage Increase
Global rice production for 2015/16 is projected at a record 481.7 million tons (milled basis), down 0.4 million tons from last month’s forecast but 5.6 million tons larger than a year earlier.
East Asia and Southeast Asia are projected to harvest record crops in 2015/16, with Sub-Saharan Africa’s production projected near-record. South Asia is expected to harvest a larger crop in 2015/16. South America’s 2015/16 production is projected to decline slightly. These four regions account for about 95 percent of global rice production.
There were three 2015/16 production revisions this month, two in South America and one in East Asia. First, Brazil’s 2015/16 production forecast was lowered 0.3 million tons to 8.0 million tons due to a smaller area forecast. The bulk of this crop will be harvested April-May 2016.
Second, Guyana’s 2015/16 production forecast was raised 33,000 tons to a record 650,000 tons, a result of slightly higher area and yield forecasts. Total area is projected at a record 200,000 hectares.
Finally, North Korea’s 2015/16 production forecast was lowered 0.1 million tons to 1.7 million tons, a result of a 15,000-hectare drop in area to 0.55 million hectares.
The 2014/15 global production forecast was raised 0.4 million tons to 476.1 million tons, still 2.0 million tons below 2013/14 production. India and Thailand account for most of the decline in global production in 2014/15. There were two significant 2014/15 production revisions this month. First, Tanzania’s 2014/15 production estimate was raised 0.3 million to a record 1.7 million tons based on a higher area estimate. Second, Brazil’s 2014/15 production estimate was raised 0.130 million tons to 8.43 million based on a higher yield reported by the Government. The 2014/15 Brazil area estimate was actually lowered as some rice land was switched to soybeans.
Global rice consumption (including a residual component) in 2015/16 is projected at a record 489.0 million tons, virtually unchanged from last month’s forecast but up almost 1 percent from a year earlier.
With consumption exceeding production by 7.2 million tons, global ending stocks in 2015/16 are projected to decline 7 percent to 91.4 million tons, the smallest since 2007/08.
Guyana’s Exports Projected To Reach Another Record High in 2016
Global rice trade in calendar year 2016 is projected at 42.4 million tons (milled basis), up just 50,000 tons from last month’s forecast but still nearly 2 percent below this year’s record. The only trade revision this month was a 50,000-ton increase in Guyana’s exports to a record 520,000 tons based on a larger crop.
The projected decline in global exports in 2016 is primarily due to weaker shipments from India (down 1.3 million tons), Pakistan, and Australia not being fully offset by stronger shipments from Southeast Asia, South America, Egypt, and the United States. On the 2016 demand side, weaker purchases by Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are projected to more than offset increased purchases by North America, East Asia, and the Middle East. Thailand is projected to remain the number one rice exporter in 2016, again shipping a record 11.0 million tons of rice.
India is projected to again rank number two, shipping 8.5 million tons of rice in 2016, a decline of 13 percent from this year and the lowest since 2011. Vietnam’s 2016 imports are projected at 6.7 million tons, unchanged from this year, making Vietnam the third largest exporter. Vietnam is again expected to supply the bulk of China’s record import demand as well as to supply major markets in Southeast Asia. At 3.8 million tons, Pakistan is projected to again be the fourth largest rice exporter in 2016, with shipments down just 0.1 million tons from this year. The United States is projected to export 3.5 million tons of rice in 2016, up about 1 percent from 2015, a result of larger supplies and more competitive prices.
Both Burma and Cambodia are projected to continue expanding their exports in 2016. At 2.0 million tons, Burma’s 2016 exports are 8 percent above a year earlier. Cambodia’s 2016 rice exports are projected at 1.2 million tons, an increase of 9 percent from 2015 and the highest on record. Cambodia’s exports have more than tripled over the past decade after more than 30 years of near-absence in the rice export market due to political turmoil. These seven countries are the largest rice-exporting countries and they typically account forabout 85 percent of total shipments.
China is projected to remain the number one rice-importing country, taking a record 4.7 million tons of rice in 2016, up 7 percent from 2015, despite a record crop. Nigeria is again number 2, projected to import 3.0 million tons in 2016, down 1.0 million from this year due to a big carryin. The European Union, Iran, Iraq, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, and South Africa are all projected to import 1-2 million tons of rice in 2016.
Global trade in 2015 remains projected at a record 43.2 million tons, up less than 0.1 million tons from a year earlier.
U.S. and Thailand’s Trading Prices Continue To Decline
Prices for most grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice have declined 2-3 percent from a month earlier, largely in anticipation of the sales of government stocks through a public tender for around 1.1 million metric tons on June 15. Prices for specialty rices have declined as well.
Price quotes for Thailand’s premium jasmine rice, an aromatic variety, were quoted at $853 per ton for the week ending June 8, down $18 from the week ending May 11. In contrast, prices for Thailand’s brokens have increased slightly. For the week ending June 8, prices for Thailand’s A-1 Super 100-percent brokens were quoted at $323 per ton, up $2 from May 11.
Price quotes from Vietnam have not changed over the past month. For the week ending June 2, prices for Vietnam’s double-water-polished milled-rice with 5-percent brokens remain quoted at $355 per ton, unchanged since mid-April.
U.S. prices for long-grain milled-rice have declined as well. For the week ending May 26, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulfport) were quoted at $468 per ton, down $6 from the week ending May 11 and the lowest since September 2010. Prices have dropped $89 from early August. Outside core U.S. markets such as Haiti, new demand for U.S. long-grain milled rice has been weak, especially from Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. The U.S. price difference (adjusted to reflect an fob vessel location) over Thailand’s 100-percent grade B is $97 per ton, little changed from early May but well below the record $200 reported last summer. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) are quoted at $225 per ton for the week ending June 2, down $5 from mid-May. Despite strong sales, U.S. long-grain supplies remain ample and global prices are declining.
Price quotes for package-quality California medium-grain milled-rice (bulk) for domestic sales to processors and repackagers are unchanged from early May. ∆
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