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U.S. Rice Import Forecast Raised For 2015-2016
There were two supply side revisions this month to the 2015/16 U.S. rice balance sheet. First, carryin was raised 6 percent from the previous forecast to 45.4 million cwt, up 43 percent from a year earlier and the highest since 2011/12.
Second, the 2015/16 all rice import forecast was raised 0.5 million cwt to a record 25.0 million cwt, up 2 percent from the previous year’s revised forecast.
U.S. 2015/16 medium- and short-grain imports remain forecast at 3.5 million cwt, unchanged from a year earlier.
The 2015/16 U.S. rice crop remains forecast at 219.0 million cwt, down just 1 percent from a year earlier, a result of slightly smaller plantings.
The average U.S. rice yield remains projected at 7,562 pounds per acre, nearly unchanged from a year earlier.
By class, 2015/16 long-grain production remains projected at 162.0 million cwt, nearly unchanged from a year earlier. Almost all U.S. long-grain rice is grown in the South. In contrast, combined medium- and short-grain production is projected to decline 3 percent to 57.0 million cwt, a result of another year of smaller plantings in California.
On balance, these revisions resulted in a 1-percent increase in the 2015/16 total supply forecast to 289.4 million cwt, 4 percent larger than a year earlier. Total supplies in 2015/16 are second only to the 2010/11 record of 297.9 million cwt.
A Wet, Cool Spring Slowed Crop Progress in the South
Despite a delayed start in much of the South due to rain, planting is virtually complete across the region. However, progress is still behind normal and fieldwork is hampered in many areas in the region. For the week ending June 7, 95 percent of the U.S. 2015/16 rice crop had emerged, up 3 percentage points from both last year and the U.S. 5-year average.
For the week ending June 7, 68 percent of the U.S. crop was rated either in good or excellent condition, up 2 percentage points from the initial ratings of the 2015/16 crop in mid-May but still 1 percentage point below a year earlier. Six percent of the U.S. 2015/16 crop was rated in very poor or poor condition, unchanged since mid- May.
2015/16 U.S. Export Forecast Raised 2.0 Million Cwt
The 2015/16 total use forecast was raised 2.0 million cwt – all medium- and short-grain – to 241.0 million cwt due to a higher export forecast. Total use is up 4 percent from a year earlier and is second only to the 2010/11 record of 249.5 million cwt.
Total domestic and residual use remains projected at 131.0 million cwt, almost 2 percent larger than a year earlier and the second highest on record.
The 2015/16 all rice export forecast was raised 2.0 million cwt to 110.0 million cwt, 7 percent larger than a year earlier and the highest since 2010/11.
Long-grain exports in 2015/16 remain projected at 76.0 million cwt, 4 percent higher than the previous year. The larger export forecast for 2015/16 is based on lower U.S. prices, a smaller price difference over Asian competitors, and larger supplies.
By type, U.S. 2015/16 rough-rice exports remain projected at 36.0 million cwt, 3 percent larger than a year earlier. Latin America, the largest market for U.S. rough rice, is expected to account for the increase in 2015/16.
U.S. 2015/16 Ending Stocks Forecast Raised to 48.4 Million Cwt
Despite a higher export forecast, the combination of a larger carryin and record imports raised the 2015/16 ending stocks forecast 1.0 million cwt to 48.4 million cwt, 7 percent above a year earlier.
The 2015/16 long-grain ending stocks’ forecast was raised 1.0 million cwt to 35.1 million cwt, an increase of 23 percent from a year earlier.
These are the second highest long-grain ending stocks since 1985/86. Expected ending stocks of this level are likely to pressure U.S. prices downward throughout the 2015/16 market year. The long-grain 2015/16 stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 19.8 percent, the highest since 1986/87.
Medium- and short-grain ending stocks in 2015/16 remain forecast at 11.0 million cwt, 24 percent below a year earlier and the lowest since 2010/11.
U.S. 2014/15 Export Forecast Lowered, Imports Raised
There were several minor revisions this month to the 2014/15 U.S. rice supply and use tables. On the supply side, imports were raised 0.5 million cwt to 24.5 million cwt, up 6 percent from a year earlier and the highest to date.
Long-grain accounted for all of this month’s upward revision in imports. At 21.0 million cwt, U.S. 2014/15 imports are up 0.5 million cwt from the previous forecast and 7 percent larger than a year earlier. The upward revision was largely due to higher than expected purchases of rice from Thailand and Vietnam, with imports of Thailand’s rice especially strong through April.
On the use side, total 2014/15 exports were lowered 2.0 million cwt to 103.0 million cwt, still 11 percent above a year earlier. Medium- and short-grain accounted for all of this month’s downward revision in U.S. exports. Medium- and short-grain exports were lowered 2.0 million cwt to 30.0 million cwt based on the expectations that not all of the substantial outstanding sales to Japan and South Korea currently on the books will ship by July 31. Long-grain exports remain projected at 73.0 million cwt, up 18 percent from the previous year, a result of larger supplies, and lower, more competitive prices.
These revisions resulted in a 2.5-million cwt increase in the 2014/15 ending stocks forecast to 45.4 million, a 43-percent increase from 2013/14.
U.S. 2014/15 California Medium- and Short-Grain Season-Average Rough-Rice Price Forecast Raised
There were no revisions to the 2015/16 season-average farm price forecasts this month. The 2015/16 season-average farm price (SAFP) for U.S. long-grain rice remains projected at $10.00-$11.00 per cwt, down from a revised $11.90-$12.10 in 2014/15.
The 2015/16 U.S. medium- and short-grain SAFP remains projected at $17.80-$18.80, compared with $17.80-$18.20 in 2014/15.
There were revisions to the 2014/15 SAFP forecasts this month. First, the 2014/15 long-grain SAFP forecast range was tightened 10 cents on both ends to $11.90- $12.10 per cwt, with the midpoint unchanged from a month earlier. The California medium- and short-grain 2014/15 SAFP was raised to $20.20-$20.60 per cwt from $19.80-$20.20 per cwt last month. The southern medium- and short-grain SAFP was lowered slightly to $14.80 -$15.00 per cwt from $14.80-$15.20 last month. Both revisions were based on monthly cash prices and marketings through April and expectations regarding prices and marketings the remainder of the market year. The 2014/15 U.S. medium- and short-grain price remains forecast at $17.80-$18.20 per cwt. ∆
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