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India Accounts For Most Drop In Rice Production Globally
Global rice production for 2013/14 is forecast at a record 473.2 million tons (milled basis), down 3.6 million tons from last month’s forecast but still up almost 1 percent from a year earlier.
The bumper global crop is the result of expanded area in 2013/14. At a record 160.3 million hectares, global rice area in 2013/14 is up 2.9 million hectares from a year earlier. Burma, Cambodia, China, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Thailand account for most of the year-to-year area increase. The average global yield, forecast at 4.40 tons per hectare (on a rough-rice basis), is slightly below the 2012/13 record.
Global rice production in 2012/13 is estimated at 469.0 million tons, virtually unchanged from last month’s estimate but almost 1 percent larger than a year earlier.
Global rice use (including a residual component) for 2013/14 is projected at a record 473.1 million tons, down 1.4 million tons from the previous forecast but up more than 1 percent from a year earlier. India accounts for most of the downward revision in the 2013/14 global rice domestic disappearance forecast. Downward revisions were partially offset by a higher domestic disappearance forecast for Nigeria. On an annual basis, Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam account for most of the projected increase in global consumption in 2013/14. In contrast, consumption (including a residual component) is projected to decline in 2013/14 in Japan, North Korea, South Korea, and the United States. Consumption has declined for several decades in both Japan and South Korea due to diet diversification. North Korea faces food deficit problems.
Global ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 106.5 million tons, down 0.9 million tons from the previous forecast but nearly unchanged from last year. These are the largest global ending stocks since 2001/02.
Export Forecasts for 2014 Raised for India and the United States, Lowered for Vietnam
Total calendar year 2014 global rice trade is forecast at a record 39.2 million tons, up almost 0.2 million tons from the previous forecast and 0.7 million tons above this year. Global trade in 2014 will mainly be driven by strong shipments to China, Iran, Iraq, and West Africa.
There were several upward revisions in 2014 import forecasts this month. First, Nigeria’s 2014 import forecast was raised 600,000 tons to 3.0 million tons based on a smaller crop and stronger purchases in 2013. Second, Cote d’Ivoire’s 2014 import forecast was increased 150,000 tons to 1.25 million based on a recent faster pace of imports. Despite the upward revision, Cote d’Ivoire’s imports remain below the 2012 record of 1.4 million tons. Third, Tanzania’s 2014 import forecast was raised 60,000 tons to 200,000 tons, also based on a faster pace in 2013. Fourth, Australia’s 2014 import forecast was increased 30,000 tons to 140,000 tons based on tighter supplies caused by a smaller crop.
These upward revisions were partially offset by four reductions. First, Colombia’s 2014 import forecast was lowered 75,000 tons to 275,000 tons based on a larger crop and weaker trade in 2013. Second, Turkey’s 2014 import forecast was reduced 50,000 tons to 280,000 tons, also based on weaker imports in 2013 and a larger crop. Cameroon’s 2014 import forecast was lowered 25,000 tons to 500,000 tons and Burkina’s imports were lowered 20,000 tons to 250,000 tons. Both African revisions were based on weaker trade in 2013.
The 2013 total global rice trade forecast was raised more than 0.1 million tons to 38.45 million, still 2 percent below a year earlier. There were two upward revisions in 2013 export forecasts this month. First, India’s 2013 export forecast was raised 500,000 tons to a record 10.5 million tons based on a stronger than expected pace of shipments. And second, Guyana’s 2013 export forecast was raised 45,000 tons to a record 345,000 tons based a strong pace and larger supplies.
These upward revisions were partially offset by five reductions. First, Vietnam’s 2013 export forecast was lowered 200,000 tons to 7.2 million based on a slower than expected shipment pace. Second, Russia’s 2013 export forecast was lowered 90,000 tons to 120,000 tons based on a slower-than-expected shipment pace and smaller supplies. Third, Peru’s 2013 export forecast was lowered 50,000 tons to 50,000 tons based on a weak pace to date. Fourth, Turkey’s 2013 export forecast was reduced 50,000 tons to 10,000 tons based on less re-exporting of imported and processed rice. Finally, Venezuela’s 2013 export forecast was lowered 50,000 tons to 100,000 tons based on pace.
Export Prices for Thailand and U.S. Continue To Decline
Prices for most grades of Thailand’s higher and medium-quality, regular-milled white rice declined 6-8 percent over the past two month, mostly a result of sales of Government rice stocks, lack of large new sales, and the recent availability of early harvested new crop rice. Prices for parboiled rice have declined as well, while prices for aromatic rice have increased. Both parboiled and aromatic rice are specialty rices.
Prices for Thailand's high-quality, 100-percent Grade B (fob vessel, Bangkok) milled rice for export were quoted at $434 per ton for the week ending November 11, down $30 from the week ending September 9 and the lowest since January 2008. Prices for Thailand’s 5-percent brokens were quoted at $416 per ton for the week ending November 11, down $36 from the week ending September 9.
In contrast, price quotes from Vietnam have increased since early September, mostly due to recent large sales to the Philippines and China. For the week ending November 5, prices for Vietnam’s 5-percent double-water-polished with 5-percent brokens were quoted at $395 per ton, up $30 from September 9. Thailand’s price quotes for 5-percent brokens are currently just $21 per ton above quotes for Vietnam’s 5-percent double-water-polished milled rice, down from almost $90 in early September and more than $150 last spring. U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice have decreased slightly since early September as U.S. supplies have increased and global competition is keen. For the week ending November 5, prices for high quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulf port) were quoted at $595 per ton, down $22 from the week ending September 10. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) were quoted at $380 per ton for the week ending November 5, down $10 from the week ending September 10.∆
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