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Record Production Overall Weather, Small Acreage Affects Rice Globally
Global rice production for 2013/14 is forecast at a record 477.9 million tons (milled basis), down 0.8 million tons from last month’s forecast but up almost 2 percent from a year earlier. At a record 161.3 million hectares, global rice area in 2013/14 is up almost 3 percent from a year earlier. Burma, China, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Thailand account for most of the year-to-year area increase.
There were three downward revisions to 2013/14 crop forecasts this month. First, China’s total production was lowered 1.0 million tons to 143.0 million tons because of drought and severe heat in the lower Yangtze River Basin and in the southwest.
Second, North Korea’s 2013/14 crop forecast was lowered 40,000 tons to 1.7 million tons due to excessive rainfall in July and early August in the northeast, impacting about 36 percent of North Korea’s total rice crop. And third, Mexico’s 2013/14 production forecast was lowered 3,000 tons to 122,000 tons based on smaller area.
These downward revisions were partially offset by three upward revisions. First, Pakistan’s 2013/14 production forecast was raised 200,000 tons to 6.4 million tons due to a higher yield forecast. The U.S. 2013/14 crop forecast was raised 59,000 tons to 5.78 million tons based on a higher yield. Both Pakistan and United States are major exporters. And finally, Turkey’s 2013/14 production forecast was raised 20,000 tons to 490,000 tons based on a higher yield; area was lowered slightly.
The 2012/13 global rice production estimate was lowered 0.9 million tons to 468.9 million tons, still almost 1 percent larger than a year earlier.
There were five country-specific downward revisions. First, Indonesia’s production was lowered 950,000 tons to 36.65 million tons based on information from the U.S. Agricultural Office in Jakarta of above-normal rainfall during the current dry season (second and third growing period).
Second, Bangladesh’s 2012/13 crop was lowered 200,000 tons to 33.8 million tons based on Government data indicating a slightly lower yield for both the boro and aus crops. Despite the downward revision, Bangladesh’s 2012/13 production was slightly higher than a year earlier.
The remaining crop reductions occurred in Latin America. First, Argentina’s 2012/13 crop was lowered 104,000 tons to 910,000 tons based on a weaker yield caused by late rains. Second, Peru’s 2012/13 production was reduced 69,000 tons to 2.0 million tons based on year-end harvest numbers that showed a smaller area estimate caused by insect problems. Finally, Mexico’s 2012/13 production was lowered 3,000 tons to 128,000 tons based on new estimates released from the Government.
Global rice use (including a residual component) for 2013/14 is projected at a record 475.3 million tons, down 0.8 million tons from last month’s forecast but up more than 1 percent from a year earlier.
Global ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 107.5 million tons, down 0.6 million tons from last month’s forecast but 2.5 percent larger than a year earlier. China and India account for the bulk of this month’s downward revision in global ending stocks. India and Thailand account for most of the year-to-year increase in global ending stocks.
Export Forecasts for 2014 Raised for India, Pakistan, and Vietnam
Total calendar year 2014 global rice trade is forecast at 38.7 million tons, up 0.7 million tons from last month’s forecast and almost 0.6 million tons above this year. Global trade in 2014 and the rest of 2013 will mainly driven by strong sales to China and Africa.
There were three export revisions for 2014 this month. First, India’s 2014 export forecast was raised 500,000 tons to 9.0 million based on stronger global trade and India’s large supplies. Second, Pakistan’s 2014 export forecast was increased 100,000 tons to 3.1 million tons based on larger exportable supplies and new financing terms with Iran. Finally, Vietnam’s 2014 export forecast was raised 100,000 tons to a record 7.8 million tons based on expectations of stronger demand from China, currently the world’s largest importing country.
There were several significant upward revisions in import forecasts for 2014 this month as well. The only upward revision in Asia was a 400,000-ton increase in China’s 2014 import forecast to a record 3.4 million tons.
The 2013 total global rice trade forecast was raised 0.5 million tons to 38.1 million, still almost 3 percent below the year-earlier record. There were four export revisions for 2013 this month. First, India’s 2013 export forecast was raised 700,000 tons to a near-record 9.7 million tons based on recommendations from the USDA Office in New Delhi. India has substantial supplies and is price competitive. Second, Paraguay’s 2013 export forecast was raised 25,000 tons to 275,000 tons based on a very strong shipment pace, with most exports going to Brazil. Paraguay has expanded production and exports in the past 6 years.
These upward export revisions were partially offset by two downward revisions. First, China’s 2013 export forecast was lowered 100,000 tons to 350,000 tons based on a smaller crop. And second, Argentina’s 2013 export forecast was cut 100,000 tons to 525,000 tons based on the smaller crop estimate and a slower than expected export pace to date.
Thailand’s Trading Prices Continue To Decline
Prices for most grades of Thailand’s higher and medium-quality regular-milled white rice declined 2-3 percent over the past month, mostly a result of Government sales of its rice stocks and few new export sales.
Price quotes from Vietnam have increased slightly over the past month, mostly due to large sales to China, recent Government purchases, and an announced higher Minimum Export Price for 25-percent-broken rice.
U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice have declined since early July as the pace of sales has slowed. For the week ending August 6, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulf port) were quoted at $606 per ton, down $33 from the week ending July 9. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) were quoted at $385 per ton for the week ending August 6, down $15 from the week ending July 9, with new sales slow as well.∆
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