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U.S. Rice Production Forecast Raised For 2012-2014
The 2013/14 U.S. rice crop is projected at 188.7 million cwt, up 2 percent from September’s forecast but still more than 5 percent below a year earlier. By class, the U.S. 2013/14 long-grain crop is projected at 129.0 million cwt, up 2.5 million cwt from the September forecast but almost 11 percent below a year earlier and the second smallest since 1997/98. Combined medium- and short-grain production is projected at 59.7 million cwt, up 1.2 million cwt from September’s forecast and 8 percent larger than a year earlier.
This month’s upward revision in total U.S. rice production is solely based on a higher yield forecast. At a record 7,660 pounds per acre, the 2013/14 all-rice average yield is 149 pounds higher than last month’s forecast and 211 pounds above a year earlier.
Yields are projected to be higher than a year earlier in all reported States except Missouri, with record yields projected for Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas. Arkansas’ average is estimated at 7,550 pounds per acre, up 1 percent from a year earlier.
Rice crops are projected smaller than a year earlier in Arkansas and Missouri. At 80.8 million cwt, Arkansas’ 2013/14 rice crop is 16 percent below a year earlier, a result of weaker plantings. Missouri’s crop is projected at 10.6 million cwt, down 14 percent from a year earlier, largely a result of smaller plantings.
U.S. 2013/14 Rice Supplies Are Projected To Decline 6 Percent
Total U.S. rice supplies in 2013/14 are projected at 247.2 million cwt, 1 percent above September’s forecast but almost 6 percent smaller than a year earlier. These are the smallest U.S. rice supplies since 2003/04.
The 2013/14 carryin remains estimated at 36.4 million cwt, 11 percent smaller than a year earlier. The 2013/14 long-grain carryin remains estimated at 21.9 million cwt, 10 percent below a year earlier.
Imports of all rice in 2013/14 are forecast at 22.0 million cwt, down 0.5 million cwt from the September forecast but still 5 percent above a year earlier and the second highest on record. Long-grain imports are projected at a record 19.5 million cwt, down 0.5 million cwt from the September forecast but 4 percent higher than a year earlier. The downward revision was based on August Census data and expectations regarding purchases the remainder of the market year.
Combined medium- and short-grain imports remain projected at 2.5 million cwt, almost 8 percent above a year earlier.
U.S. 2013/14 Export Forecast Raised to 100.0 Million Cwt
Total use of U.S. rice in 2013/14 is projected at 216.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from September’s forecast but still 4 percent below a year earlier. Exports account for all of this month’s upward revision in total use.
Total domestic and residual use of all rice in 2013/14 remains projected at 116.0 million cwt, 2 percent less than a year earlier. Long-grain domestic and residual use remains projected at 84.0 million cwt, 6 percent below a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use remains projected at 32.0 million cwt, 11 percent more than a year earlier.
Total exports in 2013/14 are projected at 100.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from the September forecast but 7 percent below a year earlier. The upward revision was primarily based on larger supplies, sales and shipment data through October, and expectations regarding shipments the remainder of the year.
Long-grain exports are projected at 68.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from the September forecast but 11 percent below a year earlier. This month’s upward revision was partly based on stronger than expected sales to the Middle East.
By type, rough-rice exports remain projected at 35.0 million cwt, up 0.8 million cwt from a year earlier. Latin America is expected to remain the top market for U.S. rough-rice exports, with Southern long-grain accounting for nearly all of the U.S. rough-rice shipments to the region. Combined milled- and brown-rice exports (on a rough basis) are projected at 65.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from September’s forecast but 11 percent below a year earlier.
Through October 31, data from the weekly U.S. Export Sales report shows combined U.S. commercial shipments and outstanding sales 13 percent behind a year earlier. Except for U.S. milled and brown medium- and short-grain exports, total commitments are behind a year earlier for all classes of U.S. rice exports. By market, combined shipments and outstanding sales to the Western Hemisphere and Sub-Saharan Africa are well behind a year earlier.
U.S. ending stocks of all rice in 2013/14 are projected at 31.2 million cwt, up 1.2 million cwt from the September forecast but 15 percent below a year earlier. These are the lowest U.S. ending stocks since 2008/09.
By class, the 2013/14 U.S. long-grain carryout remains projected at 18.4 million cwt, 16 percent smaller than a year earlier. The long-grain stocks-to-use ratio is calculated at 12.1 percent, down from 13.2 percent a year earlier. The medium- and short-grain carryout is projected at 10.4 million cwt, up 1.2 million cwt from the September forecast but 15 percent below a year earlier. The medium/short-grain stocks-to-use ratio is calculated at 16.2 percent, down from 20.4 percent in 2012/13 and the lowest since 2008/09.
U.S. 2013/14 Season-Average Farm Price Forecast Raised for Both Classes of Rice
The 2013/14 season-average farm price (SAFP) for U.S. long-grain rice is forecast at $14.50-$15.50 per cwt, up 50 cents on both the high and low end from the previous forecast. This compares with $14.40 per cwt SAFP a year earlier. On an annual basis, the impact of tighter U.S. supplies is expected to more than offset the effects of larger exportable supplies in Asia. The combined medium- and shortgrain 2013/14 U.S. SAFP is forecast at $16.80-$17.80 per cwt, also up 50 cents on both the high and low ends from the previous forecast. This compares with a 2012/13 SAFP for medium- and short-grain of $16.70 per cwt.
In late October, NASS reported a mid-October U.S. long-grain rough-rice price of $15.60 per cwt, up 30 cents from the revised September estimate. The October long-grain price is the highest since January 2009. The September price was lowered 60 cents to $15.30 per cwt. For combined medium- and short-grain rice, the mid-October NASS price was reported at $18.80 per cwt, up 70 cents from the revised September price and the highest since August 2011. The September price was lowered $1.00 from the midmonth estimate to $18.10 per cwt.∆
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