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Rice Production Expected To Rise Globally
The record global rice production for 2015/16, projected at 482.1 tons (milled basis), is 6.4 million tons larger than a year earlier. At a record 161.9 million hectares, global rice area in 2015/16 is up 1.7 million hectares from a year earlier.
The 2014/15 global production forecast was raised 1.1 million tons to 475.7 million tons.
These 2014/15 upward revisions were partly offset by three downward revisions. First, Thailand’s 2014/15 production forecast was lowered 0.4 million tons to 18.75 million tons based on water restrictions that sharply curtailed planting of the smaller dry season crop, which accounts for around 28 percent of total production.
For the second revision, Madagascar’s 2014/15 production forecast was lowered 0.2 million tons to 2.55 million tons based on a lower yield. And finally, Bangladesh’s 2014/15 production was lowered 0.1 million tons to 34.5 million tons based on slightly smaller area for the Aman crop due to flooding in the north.
Global rice consumption (including a residual component) in 2015/16 is projected at a record 489.0 million tons, up almost 1 percent from a year earlier.
With consumption exceeding production by 6.9 million tons, global ending stocks in 2015/16 are projected to decline 7 percent to 91.5 million tons, the smallest since 2007/08.
Global Rice Trade Projected To Decline 2 Percent in 2016
Global rice trade in calendar year 2016 is projected at 42.3 million tons (milled basis), a decline of 2 percent from this year’s record but still the third largest on record.
There are several midlevel rice exporters in South America. Uruguay, the largest in the region, is projected to ship 1.0 million tons of rice in 2016, up 5 percent from a year earlier and the second highest on record. In addition to exporting rice within South America, Uruguay ships a substantial amount to Iraq, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the European Union. Brazil is projected to export 800,000 tons of rice in 2016, unchanged from a year earlier. In addition to supplying rice to Central America and the Caribbean, Brazil ships to Europe, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Argentina’s exports are projected to increase almost 4 percent in 2016 to 580,000 tons, a result of larger supplies. Like Brazil and Uruguay, Argentina has expanded trade outside its historic core markets in Latin America to Iraq and, to a lesser degree, Europe and Africa.
Paraguay is projected to export a record 500,000 tons of rice in 2016, up 25 percent from a year-earlier, a result of larger supplies. Paraguay began exporting rice in 2001 and has rapidly expanded production and shipments. The bulk of Paraguay’s exports are to South American markets. Guyana’s 2016 exports are projected at 470,000 tons, a 6-percent decline from the year-earlier record, a result of slightly tighter supplies. Both Guyana’s production and exports have sharply expanded in recent years.
In other regions, Australia is projected to export 350,000 tons of rice in 2016, down more than 12 percent from this year, a result of tighter supplies caused by declining production since 2013/14. Egypt’s 2016 rice exports are projected at 400,000 tons, up 60 percent from this year.
Sub-Saharan Africa the Top Importing Region; China the Number One Buyer
In 2016, Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to again be the top rice importing region, taking 12.3 million tons, down from a record 13.0 million tons a year earlier, a result of larger production. The Middle East ranks number two, with imports projected at 6.7 million tons, up 2 percent from 2015.
East Asia is projected to import a record 6.4 million tons of rice in 2016, up 2 percent from 2015 and largely driven by China’s expanding imports. East Asia’s imports have increased more than 160 percent since 2011.
China is projected to remain the number one rice importing country, taking a record 4.7 million tons of rice in 2016, up 4 percent from 2015, despite a record crop. China has been the leading importer since 2013 and has imported record amounts of rice since 2012. Prior to 2012, China typically imported 300,000-600,000 tons of rice a year unless the country experienced a crop shortfall. The strong growth in China’s imports is driven by much lower prices in the global market for rice, strong growth in China’s demand for rice, modest production growth, and quality concerns.
Nigeria is again number 2, projected to import 3.0 million tons in 2016, down 1.0 million from this year due to a big carryin. Despite efforts to achieve self-sufficiency, Nigeria remains dependent on imports for half or more of its rice use. South Africa, Cote d’Ivoire, and Senegal are projected to remain major rice importers in 2016, each taking around a million tons of rice or more.
In Southeast Asia, the Philippines are projected to import 1.4 million tons of rice in 2016, down 18 percent from this year due to a record crop. Indonesia’s 2016 imports are projected to drop 12 percent in 2016 to 1.1 million tons, a result of a larger crop. Malaysia’s 2016 imports are projected at 1.0 million tons, unchanged from this year but slightly below record.
The calendar year 2015 trade forecast was raised 2 percent this month to a record 43.1 million tons.
Thailand’s Trading Prices Decline; U.S. Prices Drop as Well
Prices for most grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice have declined 2-4 percent from a month earlier, largely due to a lack of new sales and a weaker baht. Prices for Thailand’s high-quality, 100-percent Grade B (free-on-board (fob) vessel, Bangkok) milled rice for export were quoted at $393 per ton for the week ending May 11, down $16 from the week ending April 7 and the lowest since January 2008.
Prices for Thailand’s brokens have declined as well. For the week ending May 11, prices for Thailand’s A-1 Super 100-percent brokens were quoted at $321 per ton, down $6 from April 7.
Price quotes from Vietnam have decreased slightly over the past month, with new sales slow. For the week ending May 12, prices for Vietnam’s double-water-polished milled-rice with 5-percent brokens were quoted at $355 per ton, down $5 from a month earlier.
U.S. prices for long-grain milled-rice have declined from a month earlier. For the week ending May 12, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulfport) were quoted at $474 per ton, down $11 from a month earlier and the lowest since September 2010. Prices have dropped $77 from August. Outside core U.S. markets such as Haiti and recent sales to Colombia, new demand for U.S. long-grain milled rice has been weak, especially from Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. The U.S. price difference (adjusted to reflect an fob vessel location) over Thailand’s 100-percent grade B is $96 per ton, up $5 from mid-April but well below the record $200 reported last summer. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) are quoted at $225 per ton for the week ending May 11, down $35 from mid-April. Despite strong sales, U.S. long-grain supplies remain ample and global prices are declining.
Price quotes for package-quality California medium-grain milled-rice (bulk) for domestic sales to processors and repackagers have risen. For the week ending May 12, prices are quoted at $849 per ton, up $22 from mid-April. Export prices (sacked, Port of Oakland) for California milled-rice have declined. For the week ending May 12, prices were quoted at $849 per ton, down $45 from mid-April. ∆
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