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USDA Expects 2016 Imports To Decline, Exports To Rise
The May WASDE gave its first forecast of 2016 production and prices. USDA expects 2016 beef production to be up 1.0 percent from this year and they expect this year’s beef production to be up 0.1 percent from last year. Slaughter steers averaged $154.56/cwt live in 2014. They are looking for prices to be $4-12 higher this year and about the same in 2016 as this year.
USDA expects beef imports to decline 9.5 percent and beef exports to increase 2 percent in 2016. This will keep the domestic per capita beef supply very tight and support prices. USDA is forecasting 2016 per capita beef consumption at 53.9 pounds of retail weight; that will be the lowest since 1952.
Fed cattle prices this week were higher on light volume. Through Thursday, the 5-area average price for slaughter steers sold on a live weight basis was $160.82/cwt, up $1.05 from last week’s average and up $13.87 from a year ago. The 5 area average dressed price this week for steers was $256.55/cwt, up $1.51 for the week and up $22.49 compared to the same week last year.
This morning the choice boxed beef cutout value was $262.69/cwt, up $4.49 from the previous Friday and up $35.97 from a year ago. The select carcass cutout was $250.52/cwt this morning, up $3.72 from last week and up $33.52 from a year ago. The choice-select price spread is wider than normal at $12.18/cwt.
Cattle slaughter this week totaled 569,000 head, up 0.4 percent from the week before, but down 4.5 percent from the same week last year. Year-to-date cattle slaughter is down 7.2 percent and beef production is down 4.9 percent. The average steer dressed weight for the week ending on May 2 was 865 pounds, down 1 pound from the week before, but up 25 pounds compared to the same week last year. Weights have been up for 46 consecutive weeks.
USDA rated 56 percent of pastures in the 48 contiguous states as being in good or excellent condition on May 10. That is up from 53 percent good or excellent last week and 41 percent good or excellent a year ago.
Feeder cattle prices at Oklahoma City were mostly steady to $3 higher this week. Prices for medium and large frame #1 steers by weight group were: 400-450# $295-$329, 450-500# $286-$314, 500-550# $272-$299, 550-600# $247.50-$285, 600-650# $240-$256, 650-700# $228.50-$242.50, 700-750# $221-$231.50, 750-800# $213.50-$225.50, 800-900# $192.50-$215.50, and 900-1000#, $189-$201.75/cwt.
Cattle futures were higher this week. The June live cattle futures contract settled at $152.52/cwt today, up $1.02 for the week. August fed cattle settled at $150.80/cwt, up 98 cents from the previous week. October fed cattle gained 47 cents this week to settle at $151.67/cwt.
The May feeder cattle contract ended the week at $219.00/cwt, up $3.13 for the week. August feeders ended the week 78 cents higher at $218.40/cwt. ∆
DR. Ron Plain AND DR. SCOTT BROWN: Agricultural Economists, University of Missouri
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