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U.S. Rice Planting Below Year-Ago Levels
The first forecast for the 2015/16 U.S. rice crop pegs production at 219.0 million cwt, down just 1 percent from a year earlier.
In contrast, the average U.S. rice yield – projected at 7,562 pounds per acre – is nearly unchanged from a year earlier.
By class, 2015/16 long-grain production is projected at 162.0 million cwt, nearly unchanged from a year earlier. In contrast, combined medium- and short-grain production is projected to decline 3 percent to 57.0 million cwt, a result of another year of smaller plantings in California.
Despite Slow Start, Planting of the 2015/16 Crop Is Ahead of Normal
For the week ending May 10, 83 percent of the U.S. crop was estimated planted, 11 percentage points ahead of a both a year earlier and the U.S. 5-year average.
For the week ending May 10, 53 percent of the U.S. crop had emerged, slightly ahead of a year earlier but behind the U.S. 5-year average of 56 percent.
Total U.S. 2015/16 Rice Supplies Projected Up 3 Percent from 2014/15
Total U.S. rice supplies in 2015/16 are projected at 286.4 million cwt, an increase of 3 percent from a year earlier and the second highest on record.
Imports in 2015/16 are forecast at a record 24.5 million cwt, up 2 percent from the year-earlier revised estimate. Long-grain imports are projected at a record 21.0 million cwt, an increase of 0.5 million from the year-earlier revised estimate.
Combined medium- and short-grain imports in 2015/16 are projected at 3.5 million cwt, unchanged from 2014/15.
U.S. Exports and Total Domestic Use Projected Higher in 2015/16
Total use of U.S. rice in 2015/16 is projected at 239.0 million cwt, up 2 percent from a year earlier and the second highest on record. Long-grain total use is projected at 177.0 million cwt, an increase of 3.5 percent from 2014/15. Combined medium- and short-grain total use is projected at 62.0 million cwt, down almost 2 percent from a year earlier.
Total domestic and residual use in 2015/16 is projected at 131.0 million cwt, up almost 2 percent from a year earlier and the second highest on record.
U.S. rice exports in 2015/16 are projected at 108.0 million cwt, an increase of 3 percent from a year earlier and the highest since 2010/11. Long-grain exports are projected at 76.0 million cwt, an increase of 4 percent from a year earlier and the highest since 2010/11.
Milled rice exports (combined milled and brown rice exports on a rough-rice basis) are projected at 72.0 million cwt, up 4 percent from a year earlier. Rough-rice exports are projected at 36.0 million cwt, unchanged from 2014/15.
U.S. 2015/16 Ending Stocks Projected To Increase to 47.4 Million Cwt
U.S. rice ending stocks are projected to increase 10.5 percent to 47.4 million cwt, the highest since 2010/11 and the second highest since 1986/87. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 19.8 percent, up from 18.3 percent a year earlier and the highest since 1992/93.
Long-grain ending stocks are projected at 34.1 million cwt, an increase of more than 21 percent from a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 19.3 percent, up from 16.4 percent a year earlier and the highest since 1986/87. With stocks projected at this level, U.S. long-grain prices are expected to be under pressure throughout the market year.
Combined medium- and short-grain ending stocks are projected at 11.0 million cwt, down 12 percent from a year earlier and the lowest since 2010/11. The medium- and short-grain stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 17.7 percent, down from 19.8 percent a year earlier.
There were minor revisions this month to the 2014/15 U.S. rice balance sheet. First, the 2014/15 import forecast was raised 0.5 million cwt to 24.0 million cwt, up 4 percent from a year earlier and the second highest on record. Long-grain accounted for all of the upward revision in U.S. imports. At 20.5 million cwt, long-grain imports are up 5 percent from 2013/14.
The only revision on the use side of the 2014/15 balance sheet was a shift of 1.0 million cwt to rough-rice exports from milled-rice exports. Rough-rice exports in 2014/15 are now forecast at 36.0 million cwt, up 26 percent from a year earlier and the highest since 2009/10.
This higher 2014/15 import forecast raised ending stocks 0.5 million cwt to 42.9 million, with long-grain accounting for all of the upward revision. Ending stocks of U.S. rice increased 35 percent in 2014/15, with long-grain stocks expanding 73 percent to 28.1 million cwt, the highest since 2010/11.
U.S. Long-Grain Rough-Rice Prices Projected To Decline in 2015/16
The 2015/16 season-average farm price (SAFP) for U.S. long-grain rice is projected at $10.00-$11.00 per cwt, down from a revised $11.80-$12.20 in 2014/16.
The 2015/16 U.S. medium- and short-grain SAFP is projected at $17.80-$18.80, compared with a revised $17.80-$18.20 in 2014/15.
There were revisions to the 2014/15 SAFP forecasts this month. The 2014/15 long-grain SAFP forecast was lowered to $11.80-$12.20 per cwt, with the midpoint down 30 cents from a month earlier. The California medium- and short-grain 2014/15 SAFP was lowered to $19.80-$20.20 per cwt, with the midpoint of $20.00 down 40 cents from a month earlier. The southern medium- and short-grain SAFP was lowered slightly to $14.80-$15.20 per cwt, with the midpoint of $15.00 down 10 cents from last month’s forecast. The 2014/15 U.S. medium- and short-grain price was lowered to $17.80-$18.20 per cwt, with the midpoint down 60 cents from a month earlier.
In late April, NASS reported a March U.S. long-grain rough-rice cash price of $11.30 per cwt, down 50 cents from February and the lowest since June 2011. Since the start of the 2014/15 market year in August, long-grain cash prices have dropped $3.00 per cwt. Virtually all U.S. long-grain rice is grown in the South. For U.S. combined medium- and short-grain rice, the March NASS price was reported at $17.40 per cwt, down 40 cents from the February price. ∆
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