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First World Rice Production Decline Recorded In Six Years
Global rice production for 2014/15 is forecast at 474.6 million tons (milled basis), down 0.3 million tons from last month’s forecast andl 2.3 million tons below the 2013/14 record global crop.
At 159.6 million hectares, global rice area in 2014/15 is 0.2 million hectares below last month’s forecast and 1.6 million hectares below the year-earlier record. Indonesia, Vietnam, and Sub-Saharan Africa account for most this month’s downward revision in global rice area. The average global yield in 2014/15 is forecast at a record 4.44 tons per hectare (on a rough-rice basis), up slightly from 2013/14 but unchanged from 2012/13.
The largest downward revisions this month were for countries in Southeast Asia. First, Vietnam’s 2014/15 rice production forecast was lowered 0.2 million tons to 20.05 million, slightly below the year-earlier record.
Second, Indonesia’s 2014/15 rice production forecast was lowered 0.2 million tons to 36.3 million tons, based on a late planting of the first crop that will cause the planting of the dry season second and third crops to occur later this year, with some of the third crop not harvested until after the start of the 2015/16 season.
There were several other smaller 2014/15 downward production revisions, mostly in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. In South America, Colombia’s 2014/15 production forecast was lowered 80,000 tons to 1.22 million tons based on lower area and yield estimates caused by drought. Colombia’s rice production is 7 percent below a year earlier. Neighboring Ecuador’s 2014/15 production forecast was lowered 28,000 tons to 772,000 tons due to lower yields resulting from rainy weather at harvest. Finally, Peru’s 2014/15 production forecast was lowered 50,000 tons to 2.15 million tons based on a lower yield, as recommended by the U.S. Agricultural Office in Lima.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, Guinea’s 2014/15 production forecast was lowered 151,000 tons to 1.3 million tons based on a 9-percent reduction in area to 1.0 million hectares due to Ebola disease. Nearby Liberia’s 2014/15 production forecast was lowered 40,000 tons to 149,000 tons, also impacted by the Ebola virus. Smaller reductions were made this month for Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana. Elsewhere, the EU’s 2014/15 production estimate was reduced 93,000 tons to 1.88 million tons based on a lower yield and slightly smaller area in keeping with estimates from member countries.
These downward revisions were partially offset by several increases. The largest revision was a 0.4 million-ton increase in Pakistan’s 2014/15 production estimate to 6.9 million tons, up 3 percent from a year earlier and even with the 2008/09 record.
Egypt’s 2014/15 rice production was raised 30,000 tons to 4.53 million based on a higher yield reported by the U.S. Agricultural Office in Cairo. Mali’s 2014/15 production forecast was raised 113,000 tons to 1.46 million tons due to a higher yield. There were smaller upward revisions this month for several other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Global domestic and residual use for 2014/15 is projected at a record 483.0 million tons, down 0.6 million tons from last month’s forecast but 2.9 million tons above a year earlier. Global ending stocks are projected at 98.6 million tons, up 0.9 million from last month’s forecast but still 8 percent below a year earlier. Ending stocks in 2014/15 are projected to be smaller than a year earlier in India, Indonesia, and Thailand; but higher in the Philippines and the United States. The global stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 20.4 percent, down from 22.2 percent a year earlier and the lowest since 2007/08.
Export Forecasts for 2015 Lowered for Egypt and Japan, Raised for the United States
Total calendar year 2015 global rice trade is forecast at a near-record 42.3 million tons, down 0.3 million tons from the previous forecast and 0.7 million tons below the year-earlier record.
There were three 2015 export revisions this month. First, Egypt’s 2015 export forecast was lowered 250,000 tons from 500,000 tons based on announced export restrictions. Egypt exports medium- and short-grain rice and is a major supplier in the Middle East and North Africa. Second, Japan’s 2015 export forecast was lowered 125,000 tons to 75,000 tons based on expectations of lower food aid shipments. Third, the U.S. 2015 export forecast was raised 50,000 tons to 3.45 million tons based on a stronger pace of sales.
There were several small 2015 import revisions this month. First, Indonesia’s 2015 import forecast was lowered 50,000 tons to 1.25 million tons based on its restrictive import policy. Second, Mali’s 2015 imports forecast was lowered 50,000 tons to 100,000 tons based on a larger crop. Import forecasts for Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen were also lowered. These reductions were partially offset by two upward revisions: the EU’s 2015 import forecast was raised 50,000 tons to 1.55 million tons and the U.S. 2015 import forecast was raised 30,000 tons to 700,000 tons.
The 2014 global trade forecast was lowered 0.2 million tons to 43.0 million tons, still the record. Export estimates were lowered for Japan and Pakistan. Import estimates were lowered for Brazil, and Yemen.
Thailand’s Trading Prices Decline; U.S. Long-grain Milled-Rice Price Unchanged
Prices for most grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice have declined 2-3 percent, largely due to expectations of large sales of Government stocks and a weaker baht.
Prices for Thailand’s high-quality, 100-percent Grade B (free-on-board (fob) vessel, Bangkok) milled rice for export were quoted at $409 per ton for the week ending April 7, down $11 from the week ending March 9. Prices for Thailand’s 5-percent brokens were quoted at $396 per ton for the week ending April 7, down $1 from the week ending March 9. Prices for Thailand's 5-percent parboiled rice, a specialty rice, were quoted at $393 per ton for the week ending April 9, down $13 from the week ending March 9.
Prices for Thailand’s brokens are nearly unchanged from last month. For the week ending April 7, prices for Thailand’s A-1 Super 100-percent brokens were quoted at $327 per ton, down $2 from March 9. Price quotes for Thailand’s premium jasmine rice, an aromatic variety, were quoted at $888 per ton for the week ending April 7, down $37 from the week ending March 9.
Price quotes from Vietnam have decreased slightly over the past month, with new sales slow. For the week ending March 31, prices for Vietnam’s double-waterpolished milled-rice with 5-percent brokens were quoted at $365 per ton, down $5 from the week ending March 10.
U.S. prices for long-grain milled-rice are unchanged from a month earlier. For the week ending March 31, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulfport) were quoted at $485 per ton, unchanged since February 10 but down $72 from early August. Outside core U.S. markets such as Haiti and recent sales to Colombia, new demand for U.S. long-grain milled rice has been weak, especially from Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. The U.S. price difference (adjusted to reflect an fob vessel location) over Thailand’s 100-percent grade B is $93 per ton, up $13 from early March but well below the record $200 reported last summer. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) are quoted at $260 per ton for the week ending March 31, unchanged since mid-February but down $80 from the start of the 2014/15 market year in August.
Price quotes for package-quality California medium-grain milled rice (bulk) for domestic sales to processors and repackagers have declined. For the week ending March 31, prices are quoted at $805 per ton, down $35 from March 10. Export prices (sacked, Port of Oakland) for California milled-rice have declined. For the week ending March 3, prices were quoted at $980 per ton, unchanged since the week ending February 10. ∆
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