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California Rice Acreage Decline Due To Water Restrictions
The March 2015 Prospective Plantings report indicated 2015/16 U.S. rice area at 2.92 million acres, down just 24,000 acres from a year earlier. U.S. long-grain plantings are indicated at 2.20 million acres, down 10,000 acres from 2014/15, with Arkansas accounting for almost all of the intended decline. Long-grain plantings were indicated higher in the remaining Southern rice-growing States. Virtually all long-grain rice is grown in the South.
Combined medium- and short-grain plantings in 2015/16 are indicated at 718,000 acres, a decline of 14,000 acres from a year earlier, with another year of smaller plantings in California more than offsetting a slight expansion in medium- and short-grain plantings in the South.
Indicated U.S. plantings are based on a survey of growers conducted by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service in early March. Actual plantings may differ from reported intentions. The first survey of actual plantings of the 2015/16 crop will be conducted in early June and reported in the Acreage report to be released on June 30, 2015.
Wet Conditions, Slow Planting in Delta and Texas
The pace of planting the 2015/16 U.S. rice crop is even with a year earlier but behind the U.S. 5-year average. For the week ending April 5, 14 percent of the U.S. 2015/16 rice crop was reported planted, unchanged from a year earlier but behind the U.S. 5-year average of 18 percent.
For the week ending April 5, 3 percent of the U.S. rice crop had emerged, 1 percentage point behind the U.S. 5-year average. Louisiana was the only State reporting emergence of the 2015/16 rice crop, with 17 percent of its 2015/16 rice crop reported emerged by April 5, well ahead of the State’s 5-year average of 11 percent.
U.S. 2014/15 Import Forecast Raised to 23.5 Million Cwt
The only supply-side revision this month was a 0.5-million cwt increase in the 2014/15 U.S. import forecast to 23.5 million cwt, 2 percent above a year earlier and the second highest on record.
Long-grain accounted for all of the upward revision in imports. At 20.0 million cwt, U.S. 2014/15 long-grain rice imports are projected to be 2 percent above a year earlier and the highest on the record.
All-rice beginning stocks for 2014/15 remain estimated at 31.8 million cwt, 13 percent below a year earlier. The 2014/15 long-grain carryin remains estimated at 16.2 million cwt, 26 percent smaller than a year earlier. The medium- and short-grain carryin remains estimated at 13.3 million cwt, 9 percent larger than a year earlier. Stocks of brokens, included in estimates of total supply and total stocks, are not included in supplies or stocks by class.
The 2014/15 U.S. rice crop remains estimated at 221.0 million cwt (hundredweight, rough basis), 16 percent above a year earlier.
Total U.S. supplies of rice in 2014/15 are projected at 276.4 million cwt, up 0.5 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 11 percent higher than a year earlier.
U.S. 2014/15 Long-Grain Export Forecast Raised 1.0 Million Cwt to 73.0 Million Cwt
Total use of U.S. rice in 2014/15 is projected at 234.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but 7.5 percent larger than a year earlier. This month, a reduction in total domestic and residual use more than offset a higher export forecast.
Total domestic and residual use of all rice in 2014/15 is projected at 129.0 million cwt, 2.0 million cwt below last month’s forecast but still 3 percent larger than a year earlier.
Total U.S. rice exports in 2014/15 are projected at 105.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 13 percent larger than a year earlier.
U.S. 2014/15 long-grain exports are projected at 73.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million from last month’s forecast and 18 percent above a year earlier.
By type, U.S. rough-rice exports remain projected at 35.0 million cwt, up 22 percent from a year earlier.
Combined milled- and brown-rice exports (on a rough basis) are projected at 70.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 9 percent larger than a year earlier.
Through April 2, combined commercial exports and outstanding sales of all rice reported in the weekly U.S. Export Sales totaled 2.83 million tons (product-weight), 9 percent larger than a year earlier. Commercial exports were 3 percent behind a year earlier, while outstanding commercial sales were 55 percent ahead of a year earlier. There were substantial differences in sales and shipments by class and type.
At 1.072 million tons, U.S. long-grain rough-rice outstanding commercial sales and shipments were 19 percent ahead of a year earlier for the week ending April 2, with shipments 14-percent ahead and outstanding sales 34-percent ahead.
Medium- and short-grain U.S. rough-rice exports and outstanding sales of 210,600 tons were 7 percent behind a year earlier for the week ending April 2.
March 1, 2015, U.S. Rice stocks Up 24 Percent from a Year Earlier
Based on data from the March Rice Stocks report, U.S. rice stocks (combined milled- and rough-rice stocks on a rough-rice basis) are estimated at 120.8 million cwt, 23.6 million cwt above a year earlier. Long-grain stocks on March 1 are estimated at 74.0 million cwt, 24 percent above a year earlier. Combined medium and short-grain stocks on March 1 are estimated at 42.9 million cwt, an increase of 22 percent from a year earlier. Stocks of broken kernel rice – not reported by grain length – on March 1 are estimated at 3.9 million cwt, an increase of 49 percent from a year earlier.
U.S. ending stocks of all rice in 2014/15 are projected at 42.4 million cwt, up1.5 million cwt from the previous forecast and 33 percent larger than a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 18.1 percent, up from 14.6 percent in 2013/14. By class, the 2014/15 U.S. long-grain carryout is projected at 27.5 million cwt, up 0.5 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 70 percent larger than a year earlier. Long-grain ending stocks are the highest since 2010/11. The long-grain stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 16.1 percent, up from 10.3 percent in 2013/14. The medium- and short-grain carryout is projected at 12.5 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but 6 percent smaller than a year earlier. The medium- and short-grain stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 19.8 percent, down from 22.0 percent in 2013/14.
U.S. 2014/15 Season-Average Farm Price Forecasts Lowered For Long- Grain Rice
The 2014/15 SAFP range for U.S. long-grain rice is projected at $12.10-$12.50 per cwt, down 10 cents on the low end and down 30 cents on the high end from last month’s forecast. The midpoint of the 2014/15 long-grain SAFP of $12.30 per cwt is 20 cents below last month’s midpoint and well below the 2013/14 SAFP of $15.40 per cwt.
The combined medium- and short-grain 2014/15 U.S. season-average farm price (SAFP) range is projected at $18.40-$18.80 per cwt, up 30 cents on the low end but down 10 cents on the high end of last month’s range. The midpoint of the 2014/15 medium- and short-grain SAFP – $18.60 per cwt – is up 10 cents from the previous month’s mid-point but 60 cents below the 2013/14 SAFP of $19.20 per cwt.
By region, the California 2014/15 medium- and short-grain SAFP is forecast at $20.20-$20.60 per cwt, up 40 cents on the low end but down 20 cents on the high end of last month’s forecast, with the midpoint of $20.40 per cwt 30 cents below $20.70 a year earlier.
The 2014/15 all-rice U.S. SAFP was lowered 20 cents on the high end to $14.00- $14.40 per cwt due to the lower SAFP forecasts for long-grain rice. The midpoint is 10 cents below last month’s forecast and well below the $16.30 reported for 2013/14.
In late March, NASS reported a February U.S. long-grain rough-rice cash price of $11.80 per cwt, down 70 cents from January and the lowest since July 2011. Since the start of the 2014/15 market year in August, long-grain cash prices have dropped $2.50 per cwt. Virtually all U.S. long-grain rice is grown in the South. For U.S. combined medium- and short-grain rice, the February NASS price was reported at $17.80 per cwt, down $1.20 from the January price.
By region, the California February medium- and short-grain rough-rice price was estimated at $21.80 per cwt, up 80 cents from a month earlier but down 10 cents from the start of the California market year in October. The February 2015 Southern medium- and short-grain rough-rice price is estimated at $14.90 per cwt, down 20 cents from January and 70 cents below the start of the Southern medium and short-grain market year in August. ∆
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