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South Asia Shows Most Decline In Global Production
Global rice production for 2014/15 is forecast at 474.9 million tons (milled basis), up 0.3 million tons from last month’s forecast but still 2.2 million tons below the 2013/14 record global crop.
At 159.6 million hectares, global rice area in 2014/15 is 0.55 million hectares below last month’s forecast and 1.2 million hectares below the year-earlier record. India and Thailand account for all of this month’s downward revision in global rice area and most of the year-to-year area decline.
South Asia accounts for all this month’s upward revision in global production. First, India’s 2014/15 rice production was raised 0.5 million tons to 102.5 million tons based on expectations of a larger rabi crop, which begins harvest this month.
In nearby Sri Lanka, the 2014/15 production forecast was raised 0.150 million tons to 2.85 million due to a 50,000-hectare increase in area to 1.15 million hectares and a slightly higher yield.
In contrast, Thailand’s 2014/15 rice production forecast was lowered 0.35 million tons to 19.15 million tons due to a 0.1 million hectare reduction in harvested area to 10.4 million hectares and a lower average yield.
Global domestic and residual use for 2014/15 is projected at a record 483.7 million tons, up 0.5 million tons from last month’s forecast and 2.9 million tons above a year earlier. This month, consumption forecasts were raised for China, India, and Sri Lanka but lowered for Burma. Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, the Philippines, and the United States are expected to account for most of the increase in global consumption in 2014/15.
Global ending stocks are projected at 97.6 million tons, down 0.6 million from last month’s forecast and 8 percent below a year earlier. These are the lowest global ending stocks since 2009/10. Ending stocks in 2014/15 are projected to be smaller than a year earlier in India, Indonesia, and Thailand; but higher in the Philippines and the United States. The global stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 20.2 percent, down from 22.1 percent a year earlier and the lowest since 2007/08.
Global Trade Forecast Raised for 2014 and 2015
Total calendar year 2015 global rice trade is forecast at a near-record 42.6 million tons, up 0.4 million tons from the previous forecast but 0.6 million tons below the year-earlier record.
There were three 2015 export revisions this month. First, India’s 2015 export forecast was raised 0.3 million tons to 9.0 million based on a larger crop. Second, Burma’s 2015 export forecast was raised 50,000 tons to 1.6 million tons based on a stronger pace of sales and larger shipments in 2014. And third, Venezuela’s 2015 rice export forecast was raised 30,000 tons to 180,000 tons based on recommendations from the U.S. Agricultural Office in Caracas.
There were five significant 2015 import revisions this month. First, China’s 2015 imports were raised 0.2 million tons to a record 4.5 million tons based on improved trade prospects from nearby suppliers.
Second, Saudi Arabia’s 2015 import forecast was raised 0.18 million tons to a record 1.5 million tons due stronger demand.
Third, the 2015 European Union import forecast was raised 0.1 million tons to 1.5 million tons due to larger purchases from Cambodia and Burma under the Everything-But-Arms arrangement. Imports are still 4 percent below 2014.
Fourth, Venezuela’s 2015 import forecast was raised 75,000 tons to a record 500,000 tons based on recommendations from the U.S. Agricultural Office in Caracas. Argentina, Brazil, Guyana, and the United States supply nearly all of Venezuela’s rice imports.
For the final revision, Malaysia’s 2015 import forecast was lowered100,000 tons to 1.0 million tons based on a more moderate pace of growth.
The 2014 global trade estimate was raised 0.3 million tons to a record 43.2 million tons, up 10 percent from a year earlier.
On the import side, big increases in purchases by Bangladesh, China, the European Union, Indonesia, Nepal, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Turkey more than offset weaker purchases by Brazil, Iran, Iraq, South Korea, and Thailand.
There were three export revisions this month. First, Burma’s 2014 export estimate was raised 0.1 million tons to 1.7 million tons, the highest since the early 1960s when the military took over the country. Second, India’s 2014 exports were raised 0.1 million to a record 10.9 million based on year-end trade data. Finally, Venezuela’s 2014 export estimate was raised 75,000 tons to 200,000 tons based on recommendations from the U.S. Agricultural Office in Caracas.
There were five significant upward revisions in 2014 import estimates this month, mostly based on year end trade data. The largest was a 200,000-ton increase in Nigeria’s 2014 imports to 3.2 million tons, up 800,000 tons from a year earlier and second only to this year’s projected record 3.5 million tons. Nigeria’s production has shown no sustained increase since 2012/13, while consumption continues to increase. There were three 2014 upward revisions in Asia. First, the Philippines 2014 import estimate was increased 0.1 million tons to 1.8 million tons, 80 percent above a year earlier and the highest since 2010. Second, Sri Lanka’s 2014 imports were raised 0.1 million tons to 600,000 tons, up from just 23,000 tons in 2013 and the highest on record. Third, China’s 2014 imports were raised 68,000 tons to 4.17 million tons, 20 percent above a year earlier and the second highest on record. Outside Asia, the European Union’s 2014 imports were raised 56,000 tons to 1.57 million, a 13-percent increase from 2013, partly due to increased purchases from Burma and Cambodia.
These upward revisions were partially offset by four reductions. First, in Asia, Bangladesh’s imports were lowered 0.15 million tons to 700,000 tons, still more than 5 times the level imported in 2013. Second, Malaysia’s 2014 imports were lowered 111,000 tons to 989,000 tons, still up 12 percent from a year earlier. Outside Asia, South Africa’s 2014 imports were lowered 0.1 million tons to 900,000 tons, 9 percent below a year earlier. Finally, Venezuela’s 2014 import estimate was raised 70,000 tons to 480,000 tons based on recommendations from the U.S. Agricultural Office in Caracas.
Thailand’s Trading Prices Steady; Vietnam’s Prices Increase Slightly
Prices for most grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice are basically unchanged from a month earlier, largely due to light sales activity and expectations of more sales of Government stocks.
Prices for Thailand’s high-quality, 100-percent Grade B (free-on-board (fob) vessel, Bangkok) milled rice for export were quoted at $420 per ton for the week ending March 9, down $1 from the week ending February 9. Prices for Thailand’s 5-percent brokens were quoted at $397 per ton for the week ending March 9, down $8 from the week ending February 9. Prices for Thailand’s 5-percent parboiled rice, a specialty rice, were quoted at $406 per ton for the week ending March 9, down $4 from the week ending February 9.
Prices for Thailand’s brokens are nearly unchanged from last month as well. For the week ending March 9, prices for Thailand’s A-1 Super 100-percent brokens were quoted at $329 per ton, up $3 from February 9. Price quotes for Thailand’s premium jasmine rice, an aromatic variety, were quoted at $925 per ton for the week ending March 9, up $1 from the week ending February 9. All price quotes for Thailand’s rice are from the Weekly Rice Price Update, reported by the U.S. Agricultural Office in Bangkok.
For the week ending March 3, prices for Vietnam’s double-water-polished milled-rice with 5-percent brokens were quoted at $360 per ton, up $5 from the week ending February 10.
U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice are unchanged from a month earlier. For the week ending March 3, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulfport) were quoted at $485 per ton, unchanged since February 10. Outside core U.S. markets such as Haiti and the recent sales to Colombia, new demand for U.S. long-grain milled rice has been weak, especially from Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. The U.S. price difference (adjusted to reflect an fob vessel location) over Thailand’s 100- percent grade B is $80 per ton, nearly unchanged from last week but well below the record $200 reported during the summer. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) are quoted at $260 per ton for the week ending March 3, down $5 from the week ending February 10 and the lowest since September 2010.
Price quotes for package-quality California medium-grain milled-rice (bulk) for domestic sales to processors and repackagers are also unchanged. For the week ending March 3, prices are quoted at $838 per ton, unchanged from February 9. Export prices (sacked, Port of Oakland) for California milled-rice have declined. For the week ending March 3, prices were quoted at $980 per ton, down $25 from the week ending February 10. Price quotes for Vietnam, U.S. long- and medium grain milled-rice, and U.S. rough-rice export prices are from the weekly Creed Rice Market Report. ∆
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