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Import Forecast Raised 1.0 Million Cwt
Total U.S. supplies of rice in 2014/15 are projected at 275.9 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 11 percent higher than a year earlier. These are the largest total U.S. rice supplies since the 2010/11 record and the third highest on record.
The only 2014/15 supply side revision this month was a 1.0-million cwt increase in imports to 23.0 million cwt, virtually unchanged from a year earlier.
Long-grain imports remain projected at 19.5 million cwt, nearly unchanged from the year-earlier record.
The 2014/15 U.S. rice crop remains estimated at 221.0 million cwt (hundredweight, rough basis), 16 percent above a year earlier. The average U.S. yield of 7,572 pounds per acre is 122 pounds below a year earlier but still the second highest on record.
By class, 2014/15 long-grain production remains estimated at 162.4 million cwt, 23 percent above a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain production remains estimated at 58.7 million cwt, 1-percent larger than a year earlier.
The all-rice beginning stocks estimate for 2014/15 remains at 31.8 million cwt, 13 percent below a year earlier. The 2014/15 long-grain carryin remains estimated at 16.2 million cwt, 26 percent smaller than a year earlier. The medium- and short-grain carryin remains estimated 13.3 million cwt, 9 percent larger than a year earlier. Stocks of brokens, included in estimates of total supply and total stocks, are not included in supplies or stocks by class.
U.S. 2014/15 Medium- and Short-grain Export Forecast Lowered 1.0 Million Cwt to 32.0 Million Cwt
Total use of U.S. rice in 2014/15 remains projected at 234.0 million cwt, 7.5 percent larger than a year earlier. Both total domestic use (including a residual component) and exports are projected to be larger in 2014/15 than a year earlier. Total long-grain use in 2014/15 is projected at 170.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 8 percent larger than a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain rice total use is projected at 64.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but still 6 percent higher than a year earlier.
Total domestic and residual use of all rice in 2014/15 remains projected at 131.0 million cwt, 5 percent larger than a year earlier and the second highest on record. Combined medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use remains forecast at 32.0 million cwt, 8 percent larger than a year earlier.
Total exports in 2014/15 remain projected at 103.0 million cwt, 11 percent larger than a year earlier.
U.S. 2014/15 long-grain exports are projected at 71.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million from last month’s forecast and 15 percent above a year earlier.
Combined medium- and short-grain U.S. exports in 2014/15 are projected at 32.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but still 7 percent larger than a year earlier.
By type, U.S. rough-rice exports remain projected at 35.0 million cwt, up 22 percent from a year earlier. Through January 29, U.S. commercial sales and shipments of rough-rice were ahead of a year earlier to Central America, Turkey, and Venezuela. Long-grain accounts for the bulk of U.S. rough-rice exports, with Latin America the top regional market and Mexico the largest buyer. Southern long-grain accounts for nearly all of the U.S. rough-rice shipments to Latin America. Turkey and Libya account for almost all U.S. medium- and short-grain rough-rice exports.
Combined milled- and brown-rice exports (on a rough basis) remain projected at 68.0 million cwt, 6 percent larger than a year earlier. Northeast Asia, the Middle East, Haiti, Canada, and Sub-Saharan Africa are the largest export markets for U.S. milled-rice. The expected increase in 2014/15 in U.S. milled-rice exports is based on lower U.S. prices, a much smaller U.S. price difference over Asian competitors, and larger U.S. supplies.
Through January 29, combined commercial exports and outstanding sales of all rice reported in the weekly U.S. Export Sales totaled 2.07 million tons (product-weight), 3 percent larger than a year earlier. Commercial exports were 6 percent higher than a year earlier, while outstanding commercial sales were 8 percent behind a year earlier. There were substantial differences in sales and shipments by class and type.
At 833,500 tons, U.S. long-grain rough-rice outstanding commercial sales and shipments were 15 percent ahead of a year earlier for the week ending January 29.
Long-grain milled-rice commercial exports and sales totaled 648,100 tons for the week ending January 29 and were up 16 percent from a year earlier.
U.S. ending stocks of all rice in 2014/15 are projected at 41.9 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and 32 percent larger than a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 17.9 percent, up from 14.6 percent in 2013/14. By class, the 2014/15 U.S. long-grain carryout is projected at 28.1 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 73 percent larger than a year earlier. The long-grain stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 16.5 percent, up from 10.3 percent in 2013/14. The medium- and short-grain carryout is projected at 11.5 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from the previous forecast but 14 percent smaller than a year earlier. The medium- and short-grain stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 17.9 percent, down from 22.0 percent in 2013/14.
U.S. 2014/15 Season-Average Farm Price Forecast Lowered for Medium- and Short-grain Rice
The combined medium- and short-grain 2014/15 U.S. season-average farm price (SAFP) range is projected at $17.90-$18.70 per cwt, down 10 cents from the low end and down 30 cents from the high of last month’s range. The range was tightened to 80 cents from $1.00. The midpoint of the 2014/15 medium- and short-grain SAFP is down 20 cents from the previous month’s mid-point and below the revised 2013/14 SAFP of $19.20 per cwt.
The 2014/15 SAFP range for U.S. long-grain rice is projected at $11.90-$12.50 per cwt, a tightening of 20 cents on both ends of the range from last month’s forecast, with the midpoint unchanged. The 2014/15 long-grain SAFP is well below the 2013/14 SAFP of $15.40 per cwt and is the lowest long-grain SAFP since 2010/11. The 2014/15 all-rice U.S. SAFP was raised 10 cents on the high end and lowered 30 cents on the low end to $13.70-$14.30 per cwt due to the lower SAFP forecast for medium- and short-grain. This is well below the revised $16.30 reported for 2013/14.
In late January, NASS reported a December U.S. long-grain rough-rice cash price of $12.40 per cwt, down 10 cents from November and the lowest U.S. long-grain price since August 2011. For U.S. combined medium- and short-grain rice, the December NASS price was reported at $17.20 per cwt, also down 10 cents from the November price and the lowest since July 2013. ∆
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