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First Decline In Global Production Noted Since 2009/10
Global rice production for 2014/15 is forecast at 475.5 million tons (milled basis), up 0.2 million tons from last month’s forecast but still 1.5 million tons below the 2013/14 record global crop, and the first decline in global production since 2009/10. South Asia accounts for most of the decline in global production projected for 2014/15. In contrast, both East Asia and Southeast Asia are projected to harvest record rice crops in 2014/15. South America’s rice production is projected to be up about 1 percent, while production in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to decline slightly in 2014/15.
At 160.6 million hectares, global rice area in 2014/15 is fractionally below the year-earlier record. The average global yield in 2014/15 is forecast at 4.41 tons per hectare (on a rough-rice basis), fractionally below 2013/14 and below the 2012/13 record of 4.45 tons.
There were only 2 production revisions for 2013/14 this month. First, Paraguay’s production estimate was raised 0.1 million ton to 389,000 million tons, based on higher area and yield estimates resulting from substantial availability of water. The revised production estimates for Paraguay for 2013/14 and 2014/15 are supported by data from the United Nation’s Food and Agricultural Organization. Second, the U.S. 2013/14 crop estimate was raised fractionally to 8.615 million tons based on slightly larger area.
Global domestic and residual use for 2014/15 is projected at a record 483.3 million tons, up 0.4 million tons from last month’s forecast and 3.2 million tons above a year earlier. Bangladesh, Burma, China, Indonesia, and the United States are expected to increase in global consumption in 2014/15. Global ending stocks are projected at 99.0 million tons, down 0.1 million from last month’s forecast and 7 percent below a year earlier. These are the lowest global ending stocks since 2009/10. Ending stocks in 2014/15 are projected to be smaller than a year earlier in India, Indonesia, and Thailand, but higher in the Philippines and the United States.
Thailand Is Projected To Export a Record 11.3 Million Tons of Rice
in 2015
Total calendar year 2015 global rice trade is forecast at 42.6 million tons, up 0.64 million tons from the previous forecast but nearly unchanged from the year-earlier record. Global trade has been quite strong since 2012, largely due to record purchases by China and Sub-Saharan Africa and large exportable supplies in much of Asia and South America.
Export forecasts were raised this month for both Southeast Asia and South America.
Burma’s 2015 rice exports are projected at 1.5 million tons, up 0.15 million tons from the previous forecast but unchanged from the year-earlier revised estimate.
In South America, Paraguay’s 2015 export forecast was raised 140,000 tons to a record 400,000 tons based on a much larger crop and stronger shipments in 2014. Paraguay’s exports have nearly tripled since 2009/10 and are more than 10 times the level shipped a decade ago. Paraguay only began exporting rice this Century. Guyana’s 2015 export forecast was raised 50,000 tons to 500,000 tons – unchanged from the year-earlier record – based on a slightly larger crop and stronger exports in 2014.
On the 2015 import side, China’s 2015 import forecast was raised 0.3 million tons to a record 4.3 million tons based on recent trade agreements with Burma and Thailand. China’s imports increased sharply in 2012 and have risen each year since. Prices are much lower for imported rice than rice grown in China. In addition, China’s production growth has not kept pace with consumption. China has been the largest rice-importing country since 2013.
Syria’s 2015 import forecast was raised 50,000 tons to 200,000 based on larger shipments from India and Vietnam that pass through Turkey as part of food donations for refugees. In Latin America, 2015 import forecasts were raised for Bolivia and Haiti.
The 2014 global rice trade estimate was raised 0.7 million tons to a record 42.6 million tons, up 8 percent from a year earlier.
There were several 2014 import revisions this month, with the largest changes occurring in South Asia and the Middle East. In South Asia, Bangladesh’s 2014 import estimate was raised 150,000 tons to 850,000 tons based on recommendations from the U.S. Agricultural Office in Dhaka. Bangladesh’s imports are up sharply from a year earlier, despite bumper crops. Sri Lanka’s 2014 import forecast was raised 130,000 tons to 300,000 tons based on large purchases from India.
In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia’s 2014 imports were increased 125,000 tons to a near record 1.45 million tons. Basmati and parboiled rice account for the bulk of Saudi Arabia’s rice imports, with India the largest supplier. Syria’s imports were raised 80,000 tons to 220,000 tons based on large shipments from India and Vietnam that were shipped through Turkey in food programs for refugees. In other regions, import estimates for 2014 were raised 15,000-30,000 tons for Bolivia, Brunei, and Canada, all based on trade data.
Thailand’s Trading Prices Little Changed from Last Month
Prices for all grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice are basically unchanged from a month earlier, largely due to recent light sales activity.
Prices for Thailand’s high-quality, 100-percent Grade B (free-on-board (fob) vessel, Bangkok) milled rice for export were quoted at $423 per ton for the week ending January 13, down $1 from the week ending December 8.
Prices for Thailand’s brokens are down from last month as well. For the week ending January 13, prices for Thailand’s A-1 Super 100-percent brokens were quoted at $326 per ton, unchanged from the week ending December 8.
Price quotes from Vietnam have decreased over the past month, with sales weak except to China. For the week ending January 13, prices for Vietnam’s double-water-polished milled-rice with 5-percent brokens were quoted at $375 per ton, down $15 from the week ending December 9.
U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice are unchanged from a month earlier as well. For the week ending January 13, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulfport) were quoted at $513 per ton, unchanged from the week ending December 9. The U.S. price difference (adjusted to reflect an fob vessel location) over Thailand’s 100-percent grade B is $105 per ton, virtually unchanged from a month earlier, but still well below the record $200 reported during the summer. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) are quoted at $290 per ton for the week ending January 13, down $15 from a month earlier.
In contrast, prices for California’s package-quality medium-grain milled-rice (bulk) for domestic sales to processors and repackagers are quoted at $860 per ton for the week ending January 13, down $33 per ton from the week ending December 9. ∆
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