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Arkansas Accounts For Increase In Harvest Area This Year
The 2014/15 U.S. rice crop is estimated at 221.0 million cwt (hundredweight, rough basis), fractionally below last month’s forecast but still 16 percent above a year earlier. The slight downward revision is due to a weaker yield.
In contrast, the all-rice harvested area estimate was raised 9,000 acres to 2.92 million acres, 18 percent above a year earlier. Arkansas accounts for the bulk of this month’s upward revision in 2014/15 harvested area.
By class, 2014/15 long-grain production was raised 2.1 million cwt to 162.4 million cwt, 23 percent above a year earlier.
Combined medium- and short-grain production is estimated at 58.7 million cwt, down 2.2 million cwt from last month’s forecast but 1 percent larger than a year earlier.
Plantings increased in 2014/15 from a year earlier in all reported States except California.
Rice production was higher than a year earlier in all reported States except California and Texas, with Arkansas accounting for most of the 31.1-million cwt increase in U.S. rice production in 2014/15.
In contrast, the California 2014/15 rice crop decreased 22 percent from a year earlier to 37.0 million cwt, all due to much smaller plantings.
Total U.S. Rice Supplies in 2014/15 Are Projected Up 10 Percent
Total U.S. supplies of rice in 2014/15 are projected at 274.9 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 10 percent higher than a year earlier. Long-grain supplies are projected at 198.1 million cwt, up 3.1 million cwt from the previous forecast and 14 percent above a year earlier. Medium- and short-grain total supplies in 2014/15 are projected at 74.5 million cwt, down 2.2 million cwt from the previous forecast but 1 percent larger than a year earlier.
The all-rice beginning stocks estimate for 2014/15 remains at 31.8 million cwt, 13 percent below a year earlier. The 2014/15 long-grain carryin remains estimated at 16.2 million cwt, 26 percent smaller than a year earlier. The medium- and short-grain carryin remains estimated 13.3 million cwt, 9 percent larger than a year earlier.
Total U.S. rice imports in 2014/15 are projected at 22.0 million cwt, an increase of 1.0 million cwt from the last forecast but still 5 percent below a year earlier.
Data from the January 2014 Rice Stocks indicate total U.S. rice stocks (combined milled- and rough-rice stocks on a rough-rice basis) on December 1 at 165.9 million cwt, up 16 percent from a year earlier, mostly due to a much larger crop. By class, long-grain stocks on December 1 are estimated at 110.1 million cwt, an increase of 22 percent from a year earlier.
U.S. 2014/15 Long-grain Rice Export Forecast Raised 1.0 Million Cwt to 70.0 Million Cwt
Total use of U.S. rice in 2014/15 remains projected at 234.0 million cwt, 7.5 percent larger than a year earlier. Both total domestic use (including a residual component) and exports are projected to be larger in 2014/15 than a year earlier. Total long-grain use in 2014/15 is projected at 169.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 8 percent larger than a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain rice total use is projected at 65.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but still 7 percent higher than a year earlier.
Total domestic and residual use of all rice in 2014/15 remains projected at 131.0 million cwt, 5 percent larger than a year earlier and the second highest on record.
Total exports in 2014/15 remain projected at 103.0 million cwt, 11 percent larger than a year earlier. The year-to-year increase in U.S. exports projected for 2014/15 is largely based on expectations that more competitive U.S. prices will increase sales to major markets in Latin America and the Middle East.
Through January 1, combined commercial exports and outstanding sales of all rice totaled 1.80 million tons (product-weight), 2 percent larger than a year earlier.
Long-grain milled-rice exports and outstanding sales totaled 540,200 tons for the week ending January 1 and were up 16 percent from a year earlier.
U.S. 2014/15 long-grain exports are projected at 70.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million from last month’s forecast and 13 percent above a year earlier.
Combined medium- and short-grain U.S. exports in 2014/15 are projected at 33.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but still 7 percent larger than a year earlier.
By type, U.S. rough-rice exports remain projected at 35.0 million cwt, up 22 percent from a year earlier. Through January 1, U.S. commercial sales and shipments of rough-rice were ahead of a year earlier to Central America, Turkey, and Venezuela.
Combined milled- and brown-rice exports (on a rough basis) remain projected at 68.0 million cwt, 6 percent larger than a year earlier. Northeast Asia, the Middle East, Haiti, Canada, and Sub-Saharan Africa are the largest export markets for U.S. milled-rice exports.
U.S. ending stocks of all rice in 2014/15 are projected at 40.9 million cwt, up almost 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and 28 percent larger than a year earlier.
The only revision this month to the 2013/14 U.S. rice balance sheet was a fractional increase in the crop size to 189.95 million cwt, with medium- and short-grain accounting for all of the upward revision. Total domestic and residual use was raised slightly to account for the larger crop.
U.S. 2014/15 Season-Average Farm Price Forecast Lowered for Both Classes of Rice
The combined medium- and short-grain 2014/15 U.S. season-average farm price (SAFP) range is projected at $18.00-$19.00 per cwt, down 50 cents on both the high and low ends from last month’s forecast. The mid-point is identical to the 2013/14 SAFP of $18.50 per cwt. The impact of a 22-percent decline in California’s rice production is nearly offset by a larger than normal share of the U.S. medium- and short-grain crop coming from the South in 2014/15, which typically trades at a lower price than rice from California.The 2014/15 SAFP range for U.S. long-grain rice is projected at $11.70-$12.70 per cwt, down 30 cents on both ends and well below the 2013/14 SAFP of $15.40 per cwt. This is the lowest long-grain SAFP since 2010/11.
The 2014/15 all-rice U.S. SAFP was lowered 40 cents on both ends to $13.60-$14.60 per cwt due to lower SAFP forecasts for both long-grain and medium- and short-grain. This is well below the $16.10 reported for 2013/14 and the lowest since 2010/11. ∆
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