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First Global Production Decline Since 2009/10
Global rice production for 2014/15 is forecast at 475.2 million tons (milled basis), up 0.2 million tons from last month’s forecast but still 1.6 million tons below the 2013/14 record global crop, and the first decline in global production since 2009/10.
There were five country-specific upward revisions in 2014/15 production forecasts this month. First, China’s 2014/15 production forecast was raised 0.5 million tons to 144.5 million tons due to a record yield. In nearby South Korea, the 2014/15 production estimate was raised 60,000 tons to 4.24 million tons based on a higher yield reported by the Government.
In Southeast Asia, Vietnam’s 2014/15 production estimate was raised 50,000 tons to 28.25 million tons – just fractionally above a year earlier and the highest on record. In South Asia, Afghanistan’s 2014/15 production estimate was raised 29,000 tons to 500,000 tons based on a much higher yield.
Outside Asia, Guyana’s 2014/15 rice production estimate was raised 50,000 tons to 620,000 tons based on a higher yield and slightly more area.
These upward revisions were partially offset by a 0.5-million ton reduction in Indonesia’s 2014/15 production forecast to 36.5 million tons, still slightly above a year earlier but well below the 2008/09 record of 38.3 million tons.
There were only two production revisions for 2013/14, both in Southeast Asia. First, Indonesia’s 2013/14 production estimate was raised 0.3 million tons to 36.3 million tons based on slightly larger area during the second and third crop seasons, a result of adequate rainfall during the dry season and insignificant pest and disease incidents. Second, Vietnam’s 2013/15 rice production estimate was raised 0.16 million tons to 28.2 million tons based on slightly higher yields for the spring and autumn crops.
Global rice consumption and residual use in 2014/15 is projected at a record 482.9 million tons, virtually unchanged from last month’s forecast but 2.7 million tons larger than a year earlier.
Global ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 99.1 million tons, up 0.6 million tons from last month’s forecast but 7 percent below a year earlier and the lowest since 2009/10.
Thailand Is Projected To Export a Record 11.0 Million Tons of Rice in 2015
Total calendar year 2015 global rice trade is forecast at a record 41.9 million tons, up 0.35 million tons from the previous forecast but nearly unchanged from a year-earlier.
There were three export revisions for 2015 this month. First, Thailand’s 2015 export forecast was raised 200,000 tons to a record 11.0 million tons based on expectations of higher demand from Indonesia.
Second, Burma’s 2015 export forecast was raised 0.1 million tons to 1.4 million tons based on expectations of stronger shipments to China and Indonesia. Third, China’s 2015 rice export forecast was raised 50,000 tons to 0.4 million based on larger supplies.
On the 2015 import side, Indonesia’s import forecast was raised 0.3 million tons to 1.3 million tons based on a smaller crop.
The 2014 global trade forecast was raised 0.15 million tons to 41.9 million tons, up 2.4 million from 2013. Bangladesh, China, Cote d’Ivoire, Indonesia, Nigeria, Senegal, and the Philippines account for the bulk of the increase in 2014 global rice imports. Burma, Guyana, and Thailand exported more rice in 2014 than in 2013, with Thailand accounting for most of the increase. In contrast, India, Pakistan, and the United States exported less rice in 2014 than a year earlier.
The only 2014 export revision was a 0.15-million ton increase in Burma’s exports to 1.45 million tons, 22 percent larger than a year earlier and highest since 1963.
On the import side, China’s 2014 imports were raised 0.1 million tons to a near-record 3.9 million tons based on stronger than expected shipments from Thailand and Vietnam.
Indonesia’s 2014 import forecast was lowered almost 0.2 million tons to 1.23 million tons based on a larger 2013/14 crop. Imports by the European Union were raised 0.1 million tons to 1.5 million tons due to stronger purchases from Burma and Cambodia. Sri Lanka’s 2014 imports were increased 70,000 tons to 170,000 tons due to larger shipments from India, its primary supplier.
U.S. and Global Trading Prices for Long-Grain Milled-Rice Decline
Prices for high- and medium-grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice have declined 3-5 percent over the past month, largely due to sales of Government-held stocks, anticipation of upcoming sales, and the harvest of a bumper main season.
Prices for Thailand’s high-quality, 100-percent Grade B (free-on-board (fob) vessel, Bangkok) milled rice for export were quoted at $424 per ton for the week ending December 8, down $16 from the week ending November 10. Prices for Thailand’s 5-percent brokens were quoted at $407 per ton for the week ending December 8, down $21 from the week ending November 10. Prices for Thailand’s 5-percent parboiled rice, a specialty rice, were quoted at $410 per ton for the week ending December 8, down $13 from November 10.
Prices for Thailand’s brokens are down from last month as well. For the week ending December 8, prices for Thailand’s A-1 Super 100-percent brokens were quoted at $326 per ton, down $9 from the week ending November 10. Price quotes for Thailand’s premium jasmine rice, an aromatic variety, were quoted at $910 per ton for the week ending December 8, down $18 from the week ending November 10. Prices for fragrant rice had increased to $893 per ton in early December from $863 per ton a week earlier due to the announcement of a new pledging scheme for fragrant and glutinous rice.
Price quotes from Vietnam have decreased at a faster pace over the past month. For the week ending December 10, prices for Vietnam’s double-water-polished milled-rice with 5-percent brokens were quoted at $390 per ton, down $45 from the week ending November 11. Thailand’s price quotes for 5-percent brokens are currently $17 per ton above quotes for Vietnam’s 5-percent double-water-polished milled rice, up from a $7 discount a month earlier. Thailand’s prices typically exceed prices for similar grades of rice from Vietnam by around $50 per ton. U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice have declined from a month earlier as well. For the week ending December 10, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulfport) were quoted at $513 per ton, down $16 from the week ending November 10. Outside core U.S. markets such as Haiti and the late-November sale of 120,000 tons to Iraq, new demand for U.S. long-grain milled rice has been weak, especially from Sub-Saharan Africa. The U.S. price difference (adjusted to reflect an fob vessel location) over Thailand’s 100-percent grade B is $104 per ton, unchanged from a month earlier, but still well below the record $200 reported during the summer. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) are quoted at $305 per ton for the week ending December 10, unchanged from a month earlier.
Prices for California’s package-quality medium-grain milled-rice (bulk) for domestic sales to processors and repackagers are quoted at $893 per ton for the week ending December, unchanged from a month earlier. ∆
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