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Average Yield Down 1 Percent, Still A Record
There were no supply side changes this month to the 2014/15 (August-July) U.S. rice balance sheet. Total U.S. supplies of rice in 2014/15 remain projected at 273.9 million cwt, 10 percent above a year earlier and the largest since the 2010/11 record. Long-grain supplies remain projected at 195.0 million cwt, 13 percent larger than a year earlier. Medium- and short-grain total 2014/15 supplies remain projected at 76.6 million cwt, 4 percent larger than a year earlier. Stocks of brokens, included in total supply, are not included in supplies by class.
The 2014/15 crop remains estimated at 221.1 million cwt (hundredweight, rough basis), 16 percent larger than a year earlier. Long-grain production remains estimated at 160.3 million cwt, up 22 percent from a year earlier. Medium- and short-grain production remains estimated at 60.8 million cwt, up 5 percent from a year earlier, with the South accounting for all of the increase.
Total U.S. rice plantings remain estimated at 2.93 million acres, 18 percent higher than a year earlier. Plantings increased from a year earlier in all reported States except California, where rice area dropped 24 percent due to severe drought, low reservoir levels, and water restrictions. The average yield remains estimated at 7,597 pounds per acre, down 1 percent from a year earlier but still the second highest on record. Yields are projected lower in 2014/15 than a year earlier in all reported States except California and Texas, with the Texas yield the highest on record. Production is higher in 2014/15 in all reported States except California, with Arkansas accounting for the bulk of the 31.2-million cwt increase in U.S. rice production for the period.
The all-rice beginning stocks estimate for 2014/15 remains at 31.8 million cwt, 13 percent below a year earlier. The 2014/15 long-grain carryin remains estimated at 16.2 million cwt, 26 percent smaller than a year earlier. The medium- and short-grain carryin remains estimated 13.3 million cwt, 9 percent larger than a year earlier.
Total U.S. rice imports in 2014/15 remain projected at 21.0 million cwt, 9 percent below a year earlier. In 2013/14, about 2 million cwt of brokens were imported due to tight supplies of U.S. brokens.
U.S. 2014/15 Rice Export Forecast Raised 1.0 Million Cwt to 103.0 Million Cwt
Total use of U.S. rice in 2014/15 is projected at 234.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month and 8 percent larger than a year earlier. Both total domestic use (including a residual component) and exports are projected to be larger in 2014/15 than a year earlier. Total long-grain use in 2014/15 is projected at 168.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 7 percent larger than a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain rice total use remains projected at 66.0 million cwt, 9 percent higher than a year earlier.
Total domestic and residual use of all rice in 2014/15 remains projected at 131.0 million cwt, 5 percent larger than a year earlier and the second highest on record.
Total exports in 2014/15 are projected at 103.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 11 percent larger than a year earlier.
Through November 27, combined commercial exports and outstanding sales of all rice totaled 1.53 million tons (product-weight), 5 percent larger than a year earlier.
U.S. 2014/15 long-grain exports are projected at 69.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million from last month’s forecast and 12 percent above a year earlier.
Combined medium- and short-grain U.S. exports in 2014/15 remain projected at 34.0 million cwt, 10 percent larger than a year earlier.
By type, U.S. rough-rice exports remain projected at 35.0 million cwt, up 22 percent from a year earlier.
Combined milled- and brown-rice exports (on a rough basis) are projected at 68.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 6 percent larger than a year earlier.
U.S. ending stocks of all rice in 2014/15 are projected at 39.9 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but 25 percent larger than a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 17.1 percent, up from 14.6 percent in 2013/14. By class, the 2014/15 U.S. long-grain carryout is projected at 27.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but 66 percent larger than a year earlier. The long-grain stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 16.0 percent, up from 10.3 percent in 2013/14.
The medium- and short-grain carryout remains projected at 10.6 million cwt, 20 percent smaller than a year earlier. The medium- and short-grain stocks-to-use ratio remains estimated at 16.1 percent, down from 22.0 percent in 2013/14.
U.S. 2014/15 Season-Average Farm Price Forecast Lowered for Both Classes of Rice
The combined medium- and short-grain 2014/15 U.S. season-average farm price (SAFP) range is projected at $18.50-$19.50 per cwt, down 50 cents on both the high and low ends from last month’s forecast. Global supplies of medium- and short-grain rice are also tighter this year.
The 2014/15 SAFP range for U.S. long-grain rice is projected at $12.00-$13.00 per cwt, down 20 cents on both ends and well below the $15.40 per cwt 2013/14 SAFP.
The 2014/15 all-rice U.S. SAFP was lowered 20 cents on both ends to $14.00-$15.00 per cwt due to lower SAFP forecasts for both long-grain and medium- and short-grain.
In late November, NASS reported an October U.S. long-grain rough-rice cash price of $12.90 per cwt, down $1.10 from the mid-month estimate and 80 cents below September.
For U.S. combined medium- and short-grain rice, the October NASS price was reported at $18.50 per cwt, up 40 cents from the mid-month estimate but $1.90 below the September price and the lowest since April. By region, the California October medium- and short-grain price was estimated at $21.30 per cwt, up 30 cents from the mid-month estimate but down $1.20 from a month earlier. The October 2014 southern medium- and short-grain price is estimated at $15.30 per cwt, down 40 cents from September. NASS began reporting U.S. medium- and short-grain monthly prices by region in October 2014, starting with the August 2014 prices. ∆
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