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Global Production Decline Is First Since 2009/10
Global rice production for 2014/15 is forecast at 475.0 million tons (milled basis), down 0.4 million tons from last month’s forecast, the result of a slightly lower area forecast. Medium- and short-grain producers account for the bulk of the downward revision. Global rice production in 2014/15 is 1.3 million tons below the 2013/14 record global crop and the first decline in global production since 2009/10.
There were three country-specific downward revisions in 2014/15 production forecasts this month. First, Egypt’s 2014/15 production forecast was lowered 0.4 million tons to 4.5 million tons due to a 145,000 -hectare reduction in the area estimate to 650,000 hectares. Second, Australia’s 2014/15 rice crop forecast (to be harvested in April-May 2015) was lowered 144,000 tons to 504,000 tons, a result of a 20,000-hectare decline in the area estimate to 70,000 hectares. Third, Afghanistan’s 2014/15 rice production forecast was reduced 49,000 tons to 471,000 tons based on UN-FAO data.
Global Ending Stocks Forecasts Lowered for 2013/14 and 2014/15
Global rice consumption and residual use in 2014/15 is projected at a record 482.9 million tons, up 1.3 million tons from last month’s forecast and 3.0 million tons larger than a year earlier.
The 2013/14 global consumption and residual use estimate was raised 3.8 million tons to 480.0 million tons this month.
Global ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 98.6 million tons, down 5.7 million tons from last month’s forecast and 7 percent below a year earlier and the lowest since 2009/10.
The 2013/14 global ending stocks estimate was lowered 4.0 million tons to 106.5 million, mostly due to a lower stocks estimate for India. At 22.5 million tons, India’s 2013/14 ending stocks are down 3.0 million tons from the previous estimate and 2.9 million below a year earlier.
Thailand Projected To Return as the Largest Rice Exporter in 2014 and 2015
Total calendar year 2015 global rice trade is forecast at 41.6 million tons, up 0.4 million tons from the previous forecast but still 0.2 million tons below the year earlier record.
There were four export revisions for 2015 this month. First, Thailand’s 2015 export forecast was raised 800,000 tons to a record 10.8 million tons based on expectations of continued Government sales of its rice stocks and more competitive prices. The European Union’s 2015 export forecast was raised 30,000 tons to 220,000 tons based on larger sales in 2014.
These two upward revisions were partially offset by two reductions. First, Egypt’s 2015 export forecast was lowered 375,000 tons to 500,000 tons based on smaller production and Egypt’s new export policy, which requires exporters to supply the Government 1 ton of medium-grain rice for every ton of rice they export. Exporters would also have to pay an export license fee of $280 per ton exported, which would raise their export cost to approximately $480/MT and make Egyptian rice uncompetitive in many markets. Second, Australia’s 2015 export forecast was lowered 75,000 tons to 400,000 tons based on smaller supplies.
There were five import revisions this month for 2015. First, China’s 2015 import forecast was raised 300,000 tons to 4.0 million tons based on a stronger pace of imports in 2014, with Vietnam the largest supplier. This makes China the world’s largest rice importer for a third consecutive year.
Second, the Philippines’ 2015 import forecast was raised 100,000 tons to 1.7 million tons based on the recent pace of purchases. Third, Senegal’s 2015 import forecast was raised 100,000 tons to 1.2 million tons based on a stronger pace of purchases in 2014.
These upward revisions were partially offset by two reductions, both in the Middle East. First, Egypt’s 2014 imports were lowered 35,000 tons to 25,000 tons based on recommendations from the U.S. Agricultural Office in Cairo. Second, Syria’s 2015 import forecast was lowered 75,000 tons to 150,000 tons based on weaker imports in 2014.
The 2014 global trade forecast was raised 0.6 million tons to 41.7 million tons, up 2.4 million from 2013 and the highest on record.
There were three export revisions for 2014 this month. First, Thailand’s 2014 export forecast was raised 800,000 tons to 10.3 million tons based on a strong pace of sales to date. Second, Egypt’s 2014 exports were lowered 200,000 tons to 600,000 tons based on a much smaller crop. Finally, Australia’s 2014 export forecast was lowered 70,000 tons to 430,000 tons, also based on smaller supplies.
There were five upward revisions to 2014 import forecasts this month, all largely based on a stronger than expected pace of purchases. China’s 2014 imports were raised 300,000 tons to a near-record 3.8 million tons; the Philippines 2014 imports were increased 200,000 tons to 1.65 million tons; Senegal’s 2014 imports were raised 100,000 tons to a record 1.2 million tons; Nepal’s 2014 imports were increased 100,000 tons to a near-record 350,000 tons; and the European Union’s 2014 import forecast was increased 40,000 tons to 1.4 million.
These upward revisions were partially offset by three reductions. First, South Korea’s 2014 imports were lowered 115,000 tons to 330,000 tons based on pace to date. Second, Syria’s 2014 imports were reduced 60,000 tons to 140,000 tons based on pace to date. And finally, Japan’s 2014 imports were decreased 50,000 tons to 650,000 tons based on pace to date.
Global Trading Prices-Decline; U.S. Long-grain Prices Unchanged
Prices for high- and medium-grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice have declined 1-2 percent over the past month, largely due to sales of Government-held stocks and the onset of a bumper main-season harvest.
Prices for Thailand's high-quality, 100-percent Grade B (free-on-board (fob) vessel, Bangkok) milled rice for export were quoted at $440 per ton for the week ending November 10, down $8 from the week ending October 13. Prices for Thailand’s 5-percent brokens were quoted at $428 per ton for the week ending November 10, down $7 from the week ending October 13. Prices for Thailand's 5-percent parboiled rice, a specialty rice, were quoted at $423 per ton for the week ending November 10, down $12 from October 13.
Prices for Thailand’s brokens are up slightly from mid-October. For the week ending November 10, prices for Thailand’s A-1 Super 100-percent brokens were quoted at $335 per ton, up $5 from the week ending October 13. Price quotes for Thailand’s premium jasmine rice, an aromatic variety, were quoted at $928 per ton for the week ending November 10, down $147 from the week ending October 13 due to the arrival of new-crop supplies on the market.
Price quotes from Vietnam have also decreased over the past month. For the week ending November 11, prices for Vietnam’s double-water-polished milled rice with 5-percent brokens were quoted at $435 per ton, down $5 from the week ending October 14.
U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice are unchanged from a month earlier. For the week ending November 11, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulfport) were quoted at $529 per ton, unchanged since early October. Outside core U.S. markets such as Haiti, new demand for U.S. long-grain milled rice has been weak, especially from the Middle East and Africa. The U.S. price difference (adjusted to reflect an fob vessel location) over Thailand’s 100-percent grade B is $104 per ton, up $8 from a month earlier but still well below the record $200 reported during the summer. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) are quoted at $305 per ton for the week ending November 11, down $20 from October 14 as supplies from the bumper 2014 crop are marketed. ∆
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