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Mississippi Yield Boosts Rice Forecast Upward
U.S. 2014/15 Long-grain Production Projected Up 22 Percent from 2013/14 The 2014/15 U.S. rice crop is projected at 221.1 million cwt (hundredweight, rough basis), an increase of 0.38 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 16 percent larger than a year earlier.
U.S. rice plantings remain estimated at 2.93 million acres, 18 percent higher than a year earlier.
The average yield is projected at 7,597 pounds per acre, up 13 pounds from last month’s forecast but still 97 pounds below the year-earlier record. The 2014/15 U.S. rice yield is the second highest U.S. yield on record.
U.S. Rice Supplies in 2014/15
Projected Up 10 Percent from 2013/14
Total U.S. supplies of rice in 2014/15 are projected at 273.9 million cwt, up 0.4 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 10 percent above a year earlier. These are the second highest total supplies of U.S. rice on record.
By class, long-grain supplies are projected at 195.0 million cwt, up 0.24 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 13 percent larger than a year earlier. Medium- and short-grain total 2014/15 supplies are projected at 76.1 million cwt, an increase of 0.14 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 4 percent larger than a year earlier. Carryin and production of medium- and short-grain rice are projected to be larger in 2014/15 than a year earlier.
The all-rice beginning stocks estimate for 2014/15 remains at 31.8 million cwt, 13 percent below a year earlier.
Total U.S. rice imports in 2014/15 remain projected at 21.0 million cwt, 9 percent below a year earlier.
Combined medium- and short-grain rice imports remain projected at 2.5 million cwt, 29 percent below a year earlier. In 2013/14, the U.S. imported nearly 1.0 million cwt of broken rice kernels from Australia, a major exporter of medium- and short-grain rice.
U.S. 2014/15 Long-Grain Exports Forecast Lowered 2.0 Million Cwt to 68.0 Million Cwt
Total use of U.S. rice in 2014/15 remains projected at 233.0 million cwt, 7 percent larger than a year earlier. Both total domestic use (including a residual component) and exports are projected to be larger in 2014/15 than a year earlier.
Total domestic and residual use of all rice in 2014/15 remains projected at 131.0 million cwt, 5 percent larger than a year earlier and the second highest on record. Long-grain domestic and residual use remains projected at 99.0 million cwt, 4 percent above a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use remains forecast at 32.0 million cwt, 8 percent larger than a year earlier.
Total exports in 2014/15 remain projected at 102.0 million cwt, 10 percent larger than a year earlier.
Through October 30, combined commercial exports and outstanding sales totaled 1.22 million tons (product-weight), 15 percent larger than a year earlier. Outstanding commercial sales were 33 percent higher than a year earlier, while commercial exports were 12 percent behind a year earlier.
U.S. 2014/15 long-grain exports are projected at 68.0 million cwt, down 2.0 million from last month’s forecast but still 10 percent above a year earlier.
The Western Hemisphere is the largest export market for U.S. long-grain rice, accounting for two-thirds of U.S. long-grain shipments, with rough rice accounting for the bulk of U.S. shipments to the Western Hemisphere. The major Asian rice exporters do not ship rough rice out of the region and ship milled rice mostly within Asia and to Africa. The Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa are the next largest markets for U.S. long-grain rice, taking almost exclusively milled-rice from the United States. The U.S. typically faces its strongest competition with Asian exporters in these markets.
Combined medium- and short-grain U.S. exports in 2014/15 are projected at 34.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 10 percent larger than a year earlier.
By type, U.S. rough-rice exports are projected at 35.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 22 percent from a year earlier. Through October 30, U.S. commercial sales and shipments of rough rice were ahead of a year earlier to Mexico, Turkey, and Venezuela. Long-grain accounts for the bulk of U.S. rough-rice exports, with Latin America the top regional market and Mexico and Central America the largest buyers. Southern long-grain accounts for nearly all of the U.S. rough-rice shipments to Latin America. Turkey and Libya account for almost all U.S. medium- and short-grain rough-rice exports, typically taking California rice.
Combined milled- and brown-rice exports (on a rough basis) are projected at 67.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but still 5 percent larger than a year earlier. Through October 30, U.S. milled-rice sales and exports to Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East have been behind expectations. Northeast Asia, the Middle East, Haiti, Canada, and Sub-Saharan Africa are the largest export markets for U.S. milled-rice exports.
U.S. ending stocks of all rice in 2014/15 are projected at 40.9 million cwt, up 0.4 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 28.5 percent larger than a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 17.6 percent, up from 14.6 percent in 2013/14. By class, the 2014/15 U.S. long-grain carryout is projected at 28.0 million cwt, up 2.2 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 73 percent larger than a year earlier. The long-grain stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 16.7 percent, up from 10.3 percent in 2013/14.
The medium- and short-grain carryout is projected at 10.6 million cwt, down 1.9 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 20 percent smaller than a year earlier. The medium- and short-grain stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 16.1 percent, down from 22.0 percent in 2013/14.
U.S. 2014/15 Medium- and Short-grain Season-Average Farm Price Forecast Raised
The combined medium- and short-grain 2014/15 U.S. season-average farm price (SAFP) range is projected at $19.00-$20.00 per cwt, up $1.30 on both the high and low ends from last month’s forecast. The 2014/15 SAFP is up from $18.50 per cwt in 2013/14 and is the second highest on record. The upward revision in the 2014/15 medium- and short-grain SAFP is based on reported NASS prices by region through September and expectations regarding prices the remainder of the market year. In California, where 70 percent or more of the U.S. medium- and short-grain crop is typically grown, production is down nearly 24 percent from a year earlier due to reduced plantings, a major factor behind the higher SAFP in 2014/15. Tighter global supplies of medium- and short-grain rice are also pushing prices higher.
The 2014/15 SAFP range for U.S. long-grain rice remains projected at $12.20- $13.20 per cwt, well below the $15.40 per cwt estimated for 2013/14 and the lowest since 2010/11.
In late October, NASS reported a mid-October U.S. long-grain rough-rice cash price of $14.00 per cwt, up 30 cents from the revised September estimate. The September price was lowered 90 cents to $13.70 from a preliminary $14.60.
For U.S. combined medium- and short-grain rice, the mid-October NASS price was reported at $18.10 per cwt, down $2.30 from the revised September price. The September price was raised 20 cents from its preliminary estimate to $20.40 per cwt. ∆
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