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First Decline In Global Production Since 2009-10
Global rice production for 2014/15 is forecast at 475.5 million tons (milled basis), down 1.5 million tons from last month’s forecast and a decrease of 1.1 million from the 2013/14 record global crop. This is the first decline in global production since 2009/10. The slight decline in global production in 2014/15 is the result of a lower average yield. The average global yield in 2014/15 is forecast at 4.40 tons per hectare (on a rough-rice basis), fractionally below 2013/14 and below the 2012/13 record of 4.45 tons.
South Asia accounts for the bulk of this month’s downward revision in global production, a result of adverse weather. The 2014/15 India crop forecast was lowered 1.0 million tons to 102.0 million based on a smaller projected yield. Total rice production in India in 2014/15 is projected to decline 4 percent from the year-earlier record, a result of both smaller area and a weaker yield. India is currently the largest rice exporter in the world.
Sri Lanka’s 2014/15 rice production was lowered 350,000 tons to 2.45 million tons due to drought that reduced its yala crop about 30 percent from a year earlier. Sri Lanka’s 2014/15 total rice production is projected to be 14 percent below a year earlier, the smallest since 2008/09, mostly due to a lower yield.
Pakistan’s 2014/ 15 rice production projection was reduced 0.2 million tons to 6.5 million tons due to severe flooding in September in Punjab that has lowered yields. Production in 2014/15 is down 0.2 million tons from 2013/15 and 0.4 million tons below Pakistan’s 2008/09 record. Pakistan typically exports about 60 percent of its annual rice production, shipping both its premium basmati rice and regular milled white rice and parboiled rice. Production forecasts were also lowered this month for Madagascar and Senegal.
These reductions were partially offset by three upward revisions. First, Tanzania’s 2014/15 production was raised 132,000 tons to 1.39 million tons based on a higher yield. Second, the U.S. 2014/15 rice crop was raised 77,000 tons to 7.06 million based on a higher yield reported by the National Agricultural Statistic’s Service. U.S. production in 2014/15 is up more than 15 percent from a year earlier, a result of expanded area. Finally, Russia’s 2014/15 production was raised 25,000 tons to 675,000 tons based on Ministry of Agriculture data indicating a higher yield.
The 2013/14 global crop estimate was increased 0.5 million tons to 476.6 million tons, the highest on record.
Global rice consumption and residual use in 2014/15 is projected at a record 481.7 million tons, down 0.1 million from last month’s forecast but still 1 percent larger than a year earlier.
Global ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 104.2 million tons, down 0.9 million tons from last month’s forecast and 6 percent below a year earlier and the first decline since 2006/07. The global stocks-to-use ratio for 2014/15 is calculated at 21.6 percent, down from 23.2 percent a year earlier.
Thailand Projected To Be Largest Rice Exporter in 2015
Total calendar year 2015 global rice trade remains forecast at a record 41.2 million tons, up fractionally from this year. For both years, the robust trade level is largely due to record and near-record imports by China and Sub-Saharan Africa and large exportable supplies in much of Asia and South America.
There were no 2015 export revisions this month. On an annual basis, Thailand is projected to replace India as the largest rice exporter, shipping 10.0 million tons, an increase of 5 percent from 2014 and the highest since the record 10.6 million was shipped in 2011.
The only 2015 import revision this month was a 180,000-ton increase in Sri Lanka’s imports to 200,000 tons based on a smaller crop. In 2015, China is projected to again be the largest importer, taking a record 3.7 million tons and accounting for 9 percent of global imports.
The 2014 global trade forecast was lowered fractionally to 41.2 million tons, still 1.8 million tons above a year earlier and the second highest on record. There were two 2014 export revisions this month. First, Brazil’s 2014 exports were reduced 110,000 tons to 840,000 tons based pace to date. Second, Uruguay’s 2014 exports were increased 30,000 tons to 930,000 tons based on a larger crop and pace to date. Both countries are major South American rice exporters.
There were two 2014 import revisions this month. First, Sri Lanka’s 2014 imports were raised 80,000 tons to 100,000 tons based on a smaller crop. Second, Turkey’s 2014 imports were increased 20,000 tons to 350,000 tons based on pace to date. China and Nigeria are projected to be the largest rice importers in 2014, taking 3.5 million and 3.0 million tons respectively.
Thailand’s Prices Show Little Change; U.S. Long-grain Prices Continue Dropping
Prices for all grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice have changed little over the past month.
Prices for Thailand’s high-quality, 100-percent Grade B (free-on-board (fob) vessel, Bangkok) milled rice for export were quoted at $448 per ton for the week ending October 13, up $1 from the week ending September 9. Prices for Thailand’s 5-percent brokens were quoted at $435 per ton for the week ending October 13, up $3 from the week ending September 9.
Prices for Thailand’s brokens are down slightly from early September. For the week ending October 13, prices for Thailand’s A-1 Super 100-percent brokens were quoted at $330 per ton, down $3 from the week ending September 9. Price quotes for Thailand’s premium jasmine rice, an aromatic variety, were quoted at $1,075 per ton for the week ending October 13, up $10 from the week ending September 9.
Price quotes from Vietnam have decreased slightly over the past month. For the week ending October 14, prices for Vietnam’s double-water-polished milled-rice with 5-percent brokens were quoted at $440 per ton, down $10 from the week ending September 9.
U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice continue to decline. For the week ending October 14, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulfport) were quoted at $529 per ton, down $11 from the week ending September 9. The U.S. price difference (adjusted to reflect an fob vessel location) over Thailand’s 100-percent grade B is $96 per ton, down $12 from a month earlier and the lowest since April 2013. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) remain quoted at $325 per ton for the week ending October 14, unchanged from a month earlier.
Prices for California’s package-quality medium-grain rice (bulk) for domestic sales to processors and repackagers are quoted at $948 per ton for the week ending October 14, up $33 from the week ending September 9. Export prices (sacked, port of Oakland) for California milled rice are quoted at $1,040 per ton for the week ending October14, down $90 from early September. ∆
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