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U.S. Rice Crop Projected Upward
The 2014/15 U.S. rice crop is projected at 220.7 million cwt (hundredweight, rough basis), an increase of 2.4 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 16 percent larger than a year earlier.
U.S. rice plantings remain estimated at 2.93 million acres, 18 percent higher than a year earlier. Plantings increased from a year earlier in all reported States except California, where rice area dropped.
The average yield is projected at 7,584 pounds per acre, up 83 pounds from last month’s forecast but still 110 pounds below the year-earlier record.
Yields are projected lower in 2014/15 than a year earlier in all reported States except California and Texas.
Production is projected to be higher in 2014/15 in all reported States except California.
Despite a cool, wet spring that delayed plantings 1-2 weeks in much of the South, by early October progress of the 2014/15 U.S. rice crop was nearly equal to the U.S. 5-year average.
U.S. Rice Supplies in 2014/15 Projected Up 10 Percent from 2013/14
Total U.S. supplies of rice in 2014/15 are projected at 273.5 million cwt, up 2.4 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 10 percent above a year earlier. Carryin and imports are unchanged from last month’s forecasts. In 2014/15, a much larger crop is expected to more than offset a smaller carryin and weaker imports, with total supplies the highest since the record 297.9 million cwt was reported in 2010/11.
By class, long-grain supplies are projected at 194.7 million cwt, up 1.8 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 12 percent larger than a year earlier. In 2014/15, a larger long-grain crop more than offset a smaller carryin and weaker imports. Medium- and short-grain total 2014/15 supplies are projected at 76.5 million cwt, an increase of 0.7 million cwt from last month’s forecast, 4 percent larger than a year earlier. Carryin and production of medium- and short-grain rice are projected to be larger in 2014/15 than a year earlier.
The all-rice beginning stocks forecast for 2014/15 remains estimated at 31.8 million cwt, 13 percent below a year earlier. The 2014/15 long-grain carryin remains estimated at 16.2 million cwt, 26 percent smaller than a year earlier. The medium and short-grain carryin remains estimated 13.3 million cwt, 9 percent larger than a year earlier. Stocks of brokens, included in the all-rice estimate, are not specified by class.
Total U.S. rice imports in 2014/15 remain projected at 21.0 million cwt, 9 percent below a year earlier. In 2013/14, about 2 million cwt of brokens were imported due to tight supplies of U.S. brokens. Because of the expected increase in millings resulting from the larger crop, the supply of U.S. brokens is likely to be larger in 2014/15.
Combined medium- and short-grain rice imports remain projected at 2.5 million cwt, 29 percent below a year earlier. In 2013/14, the U.S. imported nearly 1.0 million cwt of broken rice kernels from Australia, a major exporter of medium- and short-grain rice.
U.S. 2014/15 Exports Forecast To Increase 10 Percent in 2014/15
Total use of U.S. rice in 2014/15 remains projected at 233.0 million cwt, 7 percent larger than a year earlier. Both total domestic use (including a residual component) and exports are projected to be larger in 2014/15 than a year earlier. Total long-grain use in 2014/15 remains projected at 169.0 million cwt, 8 percent larger than a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain rice total use remains projected at 64.0 million cwt, 6 percent higher than a year earlier.
Total domestic and residual use of all rice in 2014/15 is projected at 131.0 million cwt, 5 percent larger than a year earlier. Long-grain domestic and residual use remains projected at 99.0 million cwt, 4 percent above a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use remains forecast at 32.0 million cwt, 8 percent larger than a year earlier.
Total exports in 2014/15 remain projected at 102.0 million cwt, 10 percent larger than a year earlier.
U.S. 2014/15 long-grain exports remain projected at 70.0 million cwt, 13 percent above a year earlier. U.S. long-grain prices are projected to be lower and to carry a smaller price difference over Asian competitors, major factors driving the projected increase in U.S. long-grain exports.
Combined medium- and short-grain U.S. exports in 2014/15 are projected at 32.0 million cwt, 4 percent larger than a year earlier.
By type, U.S. rough-rice exports remain projected at 34.0 million cwt, up 19 percent from a year earlier. Long-grain accounts for the bulk of U.S. rough-rice exports, with Latin America the top regional market and Mexico and Central America the largest buyers. Southern long-grain accounts for nearly all of the U.S. rough-rice shipments to Latin America. Turkey and Libya account for almost all U.S. medium- and short-grain rough-rice exports, taking mostly California rice.
Combined milled- and brown-rice exports (on a rough basis) remain projected at 68.0 million cwt, 6 percent larger than a year earlier. Northeast Asia, the Middle East, Haiti, Canada, and Sub-Saharan Africa are the largest export markets for U.S. milled-rice exports.
U.S. ending stocks of all rice in 2014/15 are projected at 40.5 million cwt, up 2.4 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 27 percent larger than a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 17.4 percent, up from 14.6 percent in 2013/14. By class, the 2014/15 U.S. long-grain carryout is projected at 25.7 million cwt, up 1.8 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 59 percent larger than a year earlier. The long-grain stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 15.2 percent, up from 10.3 percent in 2013/14.
The medium- and short-grain carryout is projected at 12.5 million cwt, up 0.7 million cwt from last month’s forecast but still 7 percent smaller than a year earlier. The medium- and short-grain stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 19.5 percent, down from 22.0 percent in 2013/14.
U.S. 2014/15 Long-grain Season-Average Farm Price Forecast Lowered
The 2014/15 season-average farm price (SAFP) range for U.S. long-grain rice is projected at $12.20-$13.20 per cwt, down 30 cents on both the high and low end of the previous forecast, well below $15.40 per cwt in 2013/14, and the lowest since 2010/11.
The combined medium- and short-grain 2014/15 U.S. SAFP range is projected at $17.70-$18.70 per cwt, up 45 cents on both the high and low ends from last month’s forecast.
The 2014/15 all-rice SAFP was lowered 10 cents on both ends to $13.80-$14.80 per cwt due to the lower long-grain SAFP. This is well below the $16.10 reported for 2013/14.
In late September, NASS reported a mid-September U.S. long-grain rough-rice price of $14.60 per cwt, up 30 cents from the revised August estimate. The August price was lowered $1.00 to $14.30 from a preliminary $15.30. Virtually all U.S. long-grain rice is grown in the South.
For U.S. combined medium- and short-grain rice, the mid-September NASS price was reported at $20.20 per cwt, up 60 cents from the revised August price. ∆
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