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Expanded Area Accounts For Record Global Crop
Global rice production for 2014/15 is forecast at 477.0 million tons (milled basis), down 0.4 million tons from last month’s forecast but still up 0.9 million tons from 2013/14 and the largest crop on record. The record global crop in 2014/15 is the result of expanded area. At a record 161.0 million hectares, global rice area in 2014/15 is up fractionally from a year earlier. Cambodia, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the United States account for most of the projected area increase.
The largest downward production revision this month was for the United States. The U.S. 2014/15 crop forecast was lowered 5 percent to 6.98 million tons based on smaller area and weaker yield reported by USDA/NASS. Production forecasts were lowered for both North and South Korea due to adverse weather. The only other downward revision for 2014/15 was a 19,000-ton decrease in the European Union production forecast to 1.95 million tons due to a slightly small crop in Spain.
These reductions were partially offset by three upward revisions. First, Australia’s 2014/15 crop forecast was raised 144,000 tons to 648,000 tons based on a 20,000 hectare increase in area to 90,000 hectares reported by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) on September 9. Second, Guyana’s 2014/15 crop forecast was raised 34,000 tons to 570,000 tons based on Government of Guyana data indicating higher area and yield. Finally, Cuba’s 2014/15 crop forecast was raised 10,000 tons to 440,000 tons based on a higher yield.
The only significant production revision for 2013/14 was a 0.25 million ton increase in India’s production to a record 106.54 million tons.
Global rice consumption and residual use in 2014/15 is projected at a record 481.8 million tons, down 0.3 million from last month’s forecast but still 1 percent larger than a year earlier. Consumption (including the residual) exceeds production in 2014/15 by 4.8 million tons. Bangladesh, Burma, China, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the United States account for the bulk of the projected increase in global consumption and residual use in 2014/15.
Global ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 105.1 million tons, down 0.3 million tons from last month’s forecast and 4 percent below a year earlier and the first decline since 2006/07. Thailand accounts for most of this month’s downward revision in the 2014/15 global ending stocks forecast. The global stocks-to-use ratio for 2014/15 is calculated at 21.8 percent, down from 23.1 percent a year earlier.
U.S. 2014 and 2015 Rice Export Forecasts Lowered
Total calendar year 2015 global rice trade is forecast at 41.2 million tons, up fractionally from the previous forecast but 0.1 million below the revised 2014 record. There were no country-specific import revisions this month for 2014 or 2015.
There were three 2015 export revisions this month. First, the U.S. 2015 export forecast was lowered 0.1 million tons to 3.4 million tons based on a smaller supply forecast. Second, Australia’s 2015 export forecast was raised 75,000 tons to 475,000 tons based on a larger 2014/15 crop. Third, Guyana’s 2015 export forecast was raised 50,000 tons to 450,000 tons based on a larger crop.
The 2014 global trade forecast was raised 0.5 million tons to 41.25 million tons, 1.9 million tons above a year earlier and the highest on record.
There were three 2014 export revisions this month. First, Thailand’s 2014 export forecast was raised 500,000 tons to 9.5 million tons based on recommendations from the U.S. Agricultural Office in Bangkok. Second, Guyana’s 2014 export forecast was increased 50,000 tons to a record 450,000 tons largely based on a larger crop. Finally, the U.S. 2014 export forecast was lowered 50,000 tons to 3.1 million tons based on smaller supplies.
Thailand’s Prices Move in Narrow Range; U.S. Long-grain Prices Continue Dropping
Prices for all grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice have moved in a narrow range over the past month, despite a rapid pace of sales and upward revision in its 2014 export forecast.
Prices for California’s package-quality medium-grain rice (bulk) for domestic sales to processors and repackagers are quoted at $915 per ton for the week ending September 9, down $33 from the week ending August 12. Export prices (sacked, port of Oakland) for California milled rice remain quoted at $1,130 per ton, unchanged since early July. Sales of California rice have been very small as the new-crop harvest has just begun. Sales are expected to soon increase as the bulk of the large annual Northeast Asia sales typically begin in late September. ∆
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