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Rice Area, Yield Forecast Lowered This Year
The 2014/15 U.S. rice crop is projected at 218.3 million cwt (hundredweight, rough basis), a decrease of 10.5 million cwt from last month’s forecast, but 15 percent larger than a year earlier. Both the 2014/15 area and yield forecasts were lowered this month.
At 2.93 million acres, U.S. rice plantings are 4 percent below the previous estimate reported in the June Acreage report, but still 18 percent higher than a year earlier.
The average yield is projected at 7,501 pounds per acre, down 59 pounds from last month’s forecast and 2.5 percent below the year earlier record.
In 2014/15, rice plantings increased from a year earlier in all reported States except California where rice area dropped.
Yields are projected lower in 2014/15 than a year earlier in all reported States except California and Texas.
Production is projected to be higher in 2014/15 in all reported States except California. Arkansas accounts for the bulk of the 28.4-million cwt projected increase in U.S. rice production in 2014/15.
Progress of the 2014/15 U.S. Rice Crop Remains Behind Normal
Progress of the 2014/15 remains behind normal across the South, a result of a cold, wet spring that delayed plantings and continued cooler and wetter than normal weather in parts of the South that has slowed progress and delayed harvest.
U.S. Rice Supplies in 2014/15 Are Up 9 Percent From 2013/14
Total U.S. supplies of rice in 2014/15 are projected at 271.1 million cwt, down 11.5 million cwt from last month’s forecast but 9 percent above a year earlier. Projections for both carryin and production were lowered from the August forecasts. In 2014/15, a much larger crop is expected to more than offset a smaller carryin and weaker imports, with total supplies the highest since the record 297.9 million cwt reported in 2010/11.
By class, long-grain supplies projected at 193.0 million cwt, down 14.1 million cwt from last month’s forecast but still 11 percent larger than a year earlier. Medium and short-grain total supplies are projected at 75.8 million cwt, an increase of 2.7 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 3 percent larger than a year earlier.
The all-rice beginning stocks forecast for 2014/15 is estimated at 31.8 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from the August forecast and 13 percent below a year earlier. The downward revision was based on data from the August Rice Stocks.
Total U.S. rice imports in 2014/15 remain projected at 21.0 million cwt, 9 percent below a year earlier. In 2013/14, about 2 million cwt of brokens were imported due to tight supplies of U.S. brokens. Because of the increase in millings resulting from the larger crop, the supply of U.S. brokens is expected to be larger in 2014/15.
Combined medium- and short-grain rice imports remain projected at 2.5 million cwt, 29 percent below a year earlier.
U.S. 2014/15 Export Forecast Lowered to 102.0 Million Cwt
Total use of U.S. rice in 2014/15 is projected at 233.0 million cwt, down 10.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but still 7 percent larger than a year earlier. Both total domestic use (including a residual component) and exports were revised down this month, with long-grain accounting for the bulk of the downward revisions.
Total domestic and residual use of all rice in 2014/15 is projected at 131.0 million cwt, down 3.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but still 5 percent larger than a year earlier.
Total exports in 2014/15 are projected at 102.0 million cwt, down 7.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but still 10 percent larger than a year earlier.
U.S. long-grain exports are projected at 70.0 million cwt, down 5.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but 13 percent above a year earlier.
Combined medium- and short-grain U.S. exports in 2014/15 are projected at 32.0 million cwt, down 2.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but 4 percent larger than a year earlier.
By type, U.S. rough-rice exports remain projected at 34.0 million cwt, up 19 percent from a year earlier. Long-grain accounts for the bulk of U.S. rough-rice exports, with Latin America the top regional market and Mexico and Central America the largest buyers. Southern long-grain accounts for nearly all of the U.S. rough-rice shipments to Latin America. Turkey and Libya account for the bulk of U.S. medium- and short-grain rough-rice exports, taking mostly California rice.
Combined milled- and brown-rice exports (on a rough basis) are projected at 68.0 million cwt, down 7.0 million cwt from the previous forecast but still 6 percent larger than a year earlier. Northeast Asia, the Middle East, Haiti,
U.S. ending stocks of all rice in 2014/15 are projected at 38.1 million cwt, down 1.5 million cwt from last month’s forecast but still 20 percent larger than a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 16.4 percent, up from 14.6 percent in 2013/14.
There were several revisions to the 2013/14 balance sheet based mostly on data from the August Rice Stocks as well as revisions due to market year trade data. On the supply side, total 2014/15 imports were raised 0.1 million cwt to 23.1 million, with both long-grain and medium- and short-grain imports raised fractionally. On the use side, total 2013/14 exports were revised down 0.8 million cwt to 92.7 million cwt, with long-grain lowered 1.2 million cwt to 61.8 million cwt and medium- and short-grain raised 0.4 million to 30.9 million cwt.
Data from the August Rice Stocks indicate August 1, 2014 total U.S. rice stocks at 31.8 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast.
The trade and stocks revisions resulted in an increase in the 2013/14 domestic and residual forecast to 124.9 million cwt, up 1.9 million from the August forecast. The long-grain domestic and residual use forecast was raised 4.3 million cwt while the medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use forecast was lowered 2.5 million cwt.
U.S. 2014/15 Long-grain Season-Average Farm Price Forecast Raised
The 2014/15 season-average farm price (SAFP) range for U.S. long-grain rice is projected at $12.50-$13.50 per cwt, up 50 cents on both the high and low end of the previous forecast, but still well below the $15.40 per cwt forecast for 2013/14 and the lowest since 2010/11.
The combined medium- and short-grain 2014/15 U.S. SAFP range is projected at $17.25-$18.25 per cwt, down 25 cents on both the high and low ends from last month’s forecast. This compares with a revised $18.50 per cwt SAFP for 2013/14.
The 2014/15 all-rice SAFP was raised 10 cents on both ends to $13.90-$14.90 per cwt due to the higher long-grain SAFP. In August, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) revised 2013/14 monthly cash prices and marketings for all rice and by class.
In late August, NASS reported a mid-August U.S. long-grain rough-rice price of $15.30 per cwt, down 10 cents from the revised July estimate and 30 cents below the June estimate. The July price was lowered 60 cents to $15.40 from a preliminary $16.00. For combined medium- and short-grain rice, the mid-August NASS price was reported at $19.90 per cwt, up 30 cents from the revised July price. The July price of $19.60 per cwt is 40 cents above the preliminary price of $19.20 per cwt. ∆
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