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Higher Yield Expectations Prompts Forecast Revision
The 2014/15 U.S. rice crop is projected at 228.8 million cwt (rough basis), an increase of 2.8 million cwt from last month’s forecast and more than 20 percent larger than a year earlier.
The 2014/15 yield forecast is based on a NASS survey of producers conducted in late July and early August that asked producers what they thought their yields would be as of August 1.
The 2014/15 U.S. long-grain production forecast was increased 0.3 million cwt to 169.3 million cwt, up 28 percent from a year earlier and the largest since the 2010/11 record long-grain crop of 183.3 million cwt was harvested. The combined medium- and short-grain production forecast was increased 2.5 million cwt to 59.5 million cwt, up 2.5 percent from a year earlier.
U.S. rice plantings in 2014/15 remain estimated at 3.05 million acres, unchanged from the level in the June Acreage report.
Yields in 2014/15 are forecast lower than a year earlier in all reported States except Texas.
Production is projected higher in all reported States in 2014/15 except for California, with Arkansas accounting for the bulk of the 38.9-million cwt increase.
Progress of the 2014/15 U.S. Rice Crop Remains Behind Normal
Progress of the 2014/15 remains behind normal in much of the Delta, a result of a cold, wet spring that delayed plantings and continued cooler and wetter than normal weather. For the week ending August 10, 71 percent of the U.S. crop was reported heading, 1 percentage point above the U.S. 5-year average.
The conditions of the 2014/15 U.S. rice crop continue to improve. For the week ending August 10, 73 percent of the U.S. rice crop was rated in good or excellent condition, up 3 percentage points from a month earlier and up 2 percentage points from a year earlier. These are the highest crop condition ratings to date for the 2014/15 U.S. rice crop.
U.S. Rice Supplies in 2014/15 Projected To Increase 13 Percent
Total U.S. supplies of rice in 2014/15 are projected at 282.6 million cwt, up 2.8 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 13 percent above a year earlier. By class, long-grain supplies are projected at 207.1 million cwt, up 0.3 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 19.5 percent larger than a year earlier. Medium- and short-grain total supplies are projected at 73.1 million cwt, an increase of 2.5 million cwt from last month’s forecast, but still down almost 1 percent from a year earlier and the smallest since 2008/09. Carryin and imports of medium- and short-grain rice are projected to be smaller in 2014/15 than a year earlier.
The all-rice beginning stocks forecast for 2014/15 remains projected at 32.8 million cwt, 10 percent below a year earlier and the smallest since 2009/10. The 2014/15 long-grain carryin remains forecast at 19.3 million cwt, 12 percent smaller than a year earlier and the smallest since 2008/09. The medium- and short-grain carryin remains forecast at 11.2 million cwt, 8 percent below a year earlier. Stocks of brokens, included in the all-rice estimate, are not classified by class. Total U.S. rice imports in 2014/15 remain projected at 21.0 million cwt, 9 percent below a year earlier. Thailand is expected to again supply more than 70 percent of U.S. long-grain imports, shipping mostly its premium jasmine rice, an aromatic. Basmati rice from India and Pakistan supplies much of the remaining U.S. long-grain rice imports.
Combined medium- and short-grain rice imports remain projected at 2.5 million cwt, almost 29 percent below a year earlier.
U.S. 2014/15 Export Forecast Raised to 109.0 Million Cwt
Total use of U.S. rice in 2014/15 is projected at 243.0 million cwt, up 3.0 million from last month’s forecast and 12 percent larger than a year earlier. Both total domestic use (including a residual component) and exports were revised up this month, with medium- and short-grain accounting for all of the upward revisions. Total long-grain use in 2014/15 remains projected at 178.0 million cwt, 16 percent larger than a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain rice total use is projected at 65.0 million cwt, up 3.0 million from last month’s forecast and 4 percent higher than a year earlier.
Total domestic and residual use of all rice in 2014/15 is projected at 134.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 9 percent larger than a year earlier.
Total exports in 2014/15 are projected at 109.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 17 percent larger than a year earlier.
Combined medium- and short-grain U.S. exports in 2014/15 are projected at 34.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and almost 12 percent larger than a year earlier.
By type, U.S. rough-rice exports remain projected at 34.0 million cwt, up 15 percent from a year earlier. Long-grain accounts for the bulk of U.S. rough-rice exports, with Latin America the top regional market and Mexico and Central America the largest buyers. Southern long-grain accounts for nearly all of the U.S. rough-rice shipments to Latin America. Turkey and Libya account for the bulk of U.S. medium- and short-grain rough-rice exports, taking mostly California rice.
Combined milled- and brown-rice exports (on a rough basis) are projected at 75.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and 17 percent larger than a year earlier.
U.S. ending stocks of all rice in 2014/15 are projected at 39.6 million cwt, down 0.2 million cwt from last month’s forecast but still 21 percent larger than a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 16.3 percent, up from 15.2 percent in 2013/14.
By class, the 2014/15 U.S. long-grain carryout is projected at 29.1 million cwt, 0.3 million cwt above last month’s forecast and 51 percent larger than a year earlier.
The medium- and short-grain carryout is projected at 8.1 million cwt, down 0.5 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 27 percent smaller than a year earlier.
There were minor revisions to the U.S. 2010/11, 2011/12, and 2012/13 rice balance sheets based on 2011-2013 revisions in U.S. monthly trade data reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
U.S. Medium- and Short-grain 2014/15 Season-Average Farm Price Forecast Raised
The 2014/15 season-average farm price (SAFP) range for U.S. long-grain rice is projected at $12.00-$13.00 per cwt, unchanged from last month but well below the $15.40 per cwt forecast for 2013/14 and the lowest since 2010/11.
The 2014/15 all-rice SAFP was raised 30 cents on both ends to $13.80-$14.80 per cwt due to the higher medium- and short-grain SAFP. The 2013/14 SAFP for long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain rice was not revised this month. However, the 2013/14 all-rice SAFP was lowered 20 cents to $15.90 per cwt due to changes in marketings by class.
In late July, NASS reported a mid-June U.S. long-grain rough-rice price of $16.00 per cwt, up 40 cents from the revised June estimate. The mid-July long-grain price is the highest since December 2008. The June price was lowered 20 cents to $15.60 from a preliminary $15.80. For combined medium- and short-grain rice, the mid- July NASS price was reported at $19.20 per cwt, up 40 cents from the June price. The June price of $18.80 per cwt is 10 cents above the preliminary price of $18.70 per cwt. ∆
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