|
USDA Increases Beef Production Estimate
Boxed beef cutout values set new daily records this week. Choice cutout set records each of the first four days this week. Select cutout set records each day this week except Wednesday. This morning, the boxed beef cutout value for choice carcasses was $251.29/cwt, up $3.16 from last week’s record high, up $59.43 from a year ago, but 88 cents below yesterday's record. The select cutout was $244.66/cwt on today's morning report, up $3.41 from last week, up $60.64 from a year earlier, and up $1.14 from the record set yesterday.
Friday’s USDA WASDE report increased the estimate of 2014 beef production by 130 million pounds and increased their estimate for 2015 by 60 million pounds. Despite predicting more beef, they increased the midpoint estimate of 2014 slaughter steer prices to $148/cwt from $146/cwt in their June estimate. USDA left unchanged their forecast that 2015 fed steers will average somewhere between $145 and $157 per hundred pounds.
Beef exports during May were up 3.7 percent compared to a year earlier; beef imports were up 19.8 percent. Exports were strong to Hong Kong, Mexico and South Korea, but weaker to Japan. Imports increased from Mexico, New Zealand and Canada. Imports were larger than exports for the third consecutive month. May beef exports equaled 10.9 percent of production while imports equaled 11.8 percent of production. Through May, U.S. beef exports are up 6.4 percent and imports are up 8.4 percent. During May imports of live cattle were up 11 percent from Canada and up 23 percent from Mexico.
Fed cattle prices have eased back from last week’s record highs. Through Thursday, the 5-area average price for slaughter steers sold on a live weight basis was $155.99/cwt, down $1.61 from last week's average, but up $34.75 from a year ago. The 5 area average dressed price for steers was $247.22/cwt, down $2.26 from a week earlier, but up $55.49 from the same week last year.
Cattle slaughter totaled 576 thousand head this week. That was up 17.3 percent from the holiday shortened week before but down 10.1 percent from the same week last year. The average dressed weight for steers slaughtered the week ending on June 28 was 857 pounds, up 1 pound from the week before and 2 pounds heavier than the same week last year.
Feeder cattle prices at this week’s Oklahoma City auction were lower on calves and steady to $4 higher than the week before on heavy weight feeders. This week’s prices for medium and large frame #1 steers by weight were: 400-450# $283-$287, 450-500# no quote, 500-550# $245-$254, 550-600# $230.50-$265, 600-650# $224.50-$244, 650-700# $220-$234.50, 700-750# $213.50-$228.50, 750-800# $210-$223.50, 800-900# $204-$212.50, and 900-1000# $192.60-$196/cwt.
The August live cattle futures contract closed at $149.12/cwt today, down $5.88 from last week’s close. October fed cattle settled at $151.65/cwt, down $5.25 for the week. The December contract ended the week at $153.00/cwt. ∆
DR. RON PLAIN AND DR. SCOTT BROWN: Agricultural Economists, University of Missouri
|
|