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Increased Global Rice Production Projected
Global rice production for 2014/15 remains forecast at a record 480.7 million tons (milled basis), up 1 percent from a year earlier. There were no production revisions this month for 2014/15.
East Asia is the largest rice producing region in the world and is forecast to produce a record 158.8 million tons of rice in 2014/15, up almost 1 percent from a year earlier, with China accounting for all of the expected production growth in the region.
South Asia is the second largest rice growing region in the world, with 2014/15 production projected at a near-record 153.9 million tons, just 0.3 million tons below the 2013/14 record.
Southeast Asia is projected harvest of a record 118.6 million tons in 2014/15, up 1 percent from a year earlier.
Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to harvest a near-record 13.1 million tons of rice in 2014/15, an increase of 2 percent from a year earlier.
South America is projected to produce 16.5 million tons of rice in 2014/15, fractionally below a year earlier, a result of a slight decline in area.
Elsewhere in the world, both Egypt and Australia are projected to harvest larger crops in 2014/15, with Egypt’s crop the largest on record.
The 2013/14 global production forecast was revised up 1.4 million tons to 477.5 million tons.
Most of the revisions are in South Asia, with India accounting for most of the upward revision in global production.
Global rice consumption and residual use in 2014/15 is projected at a record 482.2 million tons, unchanged from last month, but more than 1 percent larger than a year earlier. Consumption (including the residual) exceeds production in 2014/15 by 1.5 million tons.
Global ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 110.7 million tons, up 0.9 million tons from last month’s forecast but still more than 1 percent below a year earlier and the first decline since 2003/04.
Global Rice Trade in 2015 Projected To Be the Highest on Record
Total calendar year 2015 global rice trade remains forecast at a record 41.3 million tons, up 1.5 percent from 2014.
Thailand is projected to return as the largest rice exporter in 2015, shipping 10.0 million tons of rice, up 1.0 million from this year and the highest since the record 10.6 million tons shipped in 2011.
Vietnam’s 2015 rice exports remain projected at 6.7 million tons, up 3 percent from a year earlier, a result of a record crop and little growth in consumption
In South America, Uruguay remains projected to export 950,000 tons of rice in 2015, up 50,000 tons from this year and second only to the 1.1 million tons shipped in 2012. Nearby Argentina is projected to export 600,000 tons of rice in 2015, unchanged from 2014.
Brazil’s exports are projected to drop 50,000 tons to 800,000 tons in 2015, a result of a slightly smaller crop.
Elsewhere, Egypt remains projected to export 875,000 tons of rice in 2015, an increase of 75,000 tons over this year, a result of a record crop and an expected lifting of the export ban.
On the import side, starting with East Asia, China remains projected to import a record 3.7 million tons of rice in 2015, up 0.5 million tons from 2014.
In Southeast Asia, Indonesia’s 2015 imports are projected to decline 0.5 million tons to 1.0 million tons based on adequate supplies. The Philippines’ 2015 imports are projected to decline 0.2 million tons to 1.6 million tons, also based on adequate supplies. Malaysia’s 2015 imports are projected to remain unchanged from 2014 at a record 1.1 million tons.
South Asia’s rice imports are projected to decline 20 percent to 0.74 million tons. The region currently has no major importer and is the smallest importing region in Asia.
Sub-Saharan Africa remains projected to import a record 12.75 million tons of rice in 2015, up about 1 percent from a year earlier. Nigeria remains the largest importer in the region and the second largest global buyer of rice.
In the Western Hemisphere, Brazil, Cuba, Haiti, Mexico, and the United States remain the largest importers, with both the United States and Brazil net exporters of rice. Mexico is projected to import a record 775,000 tons of rice in 2015.
U.S. rice imports in 2015 are projected at 0.7 million tons in 2015, unchanged from this year’s record.
In the Middle East, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates are all projected to increase imports in 2015.
The 2014 global trade forecast was lowered 0.1 million tons to 40.7 million tons, still 4 percent above a year earlier and the second highest on record.
Thailand’s Prices Little Changed from Last Month; U.S. Prices Decline
Prices for medium and higher grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice have changed little since early May, as the Government still allows exporters to fulfill outstanding commitments by using rice purchased from sales of Government stocks that were approved prior to the coup.
Prices for Thailand’s high-quality, 100-percent Grade B (fob vessel, Bangkok) milled rice for export were quoted at $398 per ton for the week ending June 9, down $1 from the week ending May 5. Prices for Thailand’s 5-percent brokens were quoted at $381 per ton for the week ending June 9, up $2 from the week ending May 5. Prices for Thailand’s 5-percent parboiled rice were quoted at $409 per ton for the week ending June 9, up $5 from the week ending May 5.
Prices for Thailand’s brokens are up 3 percent from early May. For the week ending June 9, prices for Thailand’s A-1 Super 100-percent brokens were quoted at $312 per ton, up $10 from the week ending May 5. Price quotes for Thailand’s premium jasmine rice, an aromatic variety, were quoted at $954 per ton for the week ending June 9, down $5 from the week ending May 5.
Price quotes from Vietnam have increased about 1 percent over the past month. For the week ending June 10, prices for Vietnam’s double-water-polished with 5- percent brokens were quoted at $400 per ton, up $5 from the week ending May 6. Prices had risen to as high as $410 in mid-May before falling by early June as sales slowed, partly a response to increased sales by Thailand. Thailand’s price quotes for 5-percent brokens are currently $19 per ton below quotes for Vietnam’s 5-percent double-water-polished milled rice, making Thailand a competitive seller.
For the week ending June 10, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulf port) were quoted at $579 per ton, down $5 from a month earlier. ∆
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